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AdvancedTCA Big Wins for First Movers. Brough Turner Senior VP & CTO. Global Telecom Industry in Transition….still. Little confidence Visibility remains poor Capacity, debt and business models still problematic More consolidation expected Recovery slipping beyond ’03? Some positive signs

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Advancedtca big wins for first movers

AdvancedTCABig Wins for First Movers

Brough Turner

Senior VP & CTO


Global telecom industry in transition still
Global Telecom Industry in Transition….still

  • Little confidence

    • Visibility remains poor

    • Capacity, debt and business models still problematic

    • More consolidation expected

    • Recovery slipping beyond ’03?

  • Some positive signs

    • Consolidation/ restructuring momentum growing

    • Strength in parts of Asia

    • New products - where there is large (and fast) ROI

    • Growth in enhanced services


Historical perspective early british railroad development
Historical PerspectiveEarly British Railroad Development

  • RR construction authorized by Parliament*

    • Miles of track; Capital in millions of pounds sterling

      Year Miles Capital Year Miles Capital

    • 1833 218 5.5 1842 55 5.3

    • 1834 131 2.3 1843 90 3.9

    • 1835 202 4.8 1844 805 20.5

    • 1836 955 22.9 1845 2,896 59.5

    • 1837 543 13.5 1846 4,540 132.6

    • 1838 49 2.1 1847 1,295 39.5

    • 1839 54 6.5 1848 373 15.3

    • 1840 0 2.5 1849 17 3.9

    • 1841 14 3.4 18504.1 70.4

* Andrew Odlyzko, U of Minn., private correspondence


Long history of techno bubble overinvestment and crashes
Long History of Techno Bubble Overinvestment and Crashes

Railways authorized by British Parliament (not necessarily built)

< http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/talks/index.html >


19th century british railroads
19th Century British Railroads

  • Attitudes in 1840 & 1850 were extremely negative, but ...

  • More than 70 years of steady traffic growth

    • depressions had only slight effect on growth rate

  • Cycles of financial investment

    • “Irrational exuberance” to nearly zero investment

    • Many bankruptcies, but…No serious interruption of service!

  • Over long term, many fortunes were made

    • and some were lost


World telecom statistics wireless growth

Landline Subs

(millions)

Mobile Subs

World Telecom StatisticsWireless Growth

Crossoverhappened May 2002 !

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators 2002


Wireless growth
Wireless Growth

  • Cellular market growth consistently beats long term forecasts

  • Wireless local loop becoming competitive

    • Costs driven by Moore’s law and cellular volumes

  • Wireless capacity created by engineers, not by regulators

    • 100 years of exponential growth in bits /Hz /area

    • Bandwidth scarcity is a regulatory problem

  • Wireless can change the “last mile” problem

    • Wireless local loop; wireless IP access

    • “Unlicensed” bands foster grassroots connectivity


Broadband adoption rates outpacing cellular
Broadband Adoption Rates - Outpacing Cellular

Connections (millions)

Source: IDC, January 2002


Internet backbone traffic in u s
Internet Backbone Traffic in U.S.

TB/month (in Dec)

Based on data from A. Odlyzko, U of Minn.


Internet traffic
Internet Traffic

  • Internet traffic (roughly) doubles every year

    • consistently for more than 15 years

    • at least 90% growth in 2002

  • Global telecom revenue growing 6% per year

    • Consumer now getting benefit of Moore’s law

    • Same money purchases dramatically more service each year

  • Continuing need for ever more cost-effective network elements


New equipment demands
New Equipment Demands

  • Early in 10-20 year transition of telecom to converged communications

    • Tiny to small penetration rates so far

    • Multiple platform transitions yet to come

  • Equipment providers dramatically downsized

    • R&D budgets down more than a third, but negligible consolidation so far…

    • Focus on core competencies; leverage the rest

    • Product managers looking for help

  • Looking to COTS technology to reduce cost and cut time to market

    • Ethernet, PCs, OSs, DBs, software!!!


Off the shelf technology
Off-the-Shelf Technology

  • Leverage larger commercial markets represented by market standards

    • Less important whether standards are formal or de facto

    • Market leverage is what counts

  • Common, relatively simple, interfaces that can hide diverse complexities

  • AdvancedTCA is poised to foster a large commercial, off-the-shelf market


Advancedtca everywhere
AdvancedTCA Everywhere?

  • Not quite…

    • pure storage likely to use SAN racks

    • pure computing likely to use IT blade servers

    • existing platforms will be milked wherever possible

    • very high volume still justifies custom engineering

      but,

  • AdvancedTCA opportunity much, much larger than CompactPCI or VME

    • matches broader range of telecom applications and requirements

    • better fosters the migration from custom designs


Advancedtca
AdvancedTCA

  • Bigger boards, more power, more cooling

    • smaller is beautiful -- to consumers! not for COs

    • supports latest (power hungry) CPUs

    • support bleeding edge network processors, DSPs and ASIC designs

  • Telco power and mechanicals

    • versus CompactPCI’s industrial focus, adapted for enterprise telecom, and then adapted again

    • 600 mm practice; ETSI & NEBS; full redundancy; high density I/O; front and back fiber I/O

  • Telco mindset !


Serial technology
Serial Technology

  • Data transfer rates beat parallel buses

    • press the physical limits on copper, and fiber

    • SERDES becoming just another silicon block

  • Follows networking paradigm

    • autonomous modules with Ethernet and other point-to-point interconnect

  • Leverage emerging “switch fabrics”

    • Ethernet

    • Infiniband, Starfabric, PCI Express


Management structure
Management Structure

  • Mandatory common approach to management

    • AdvancedTCA, PICMG 3.0, section 3.1

    • leverages and enhances PICMG 2.9

    • address telco requirements leveraging IT technology (IPMI), protocols and software

  • Reverse benefits

    • applicable back to CompactPCI (and potentially to CompactTCA) as well at VITA 38

  • Basis for combined systems that leverage AdvancedTCA and other IT equipment


Atca success indicators
ATCA Success Indicators

  • Leveraging years of CompactPCI telecom learning

    • while, so far, avoiding “second system syndrome”

    • leveraging and evolving PICMG 2.x software, e.g. 2.9 management

  • Leveraging IP networking concepts and IT software base

    • basic protocols; databases; clustering software; …


Looking forward
Looking Forward

Despite Internet / Telecom Bubble and Crash:

  • Subscriber and traffic growth robust today!

    • wireless subs; broadband subs; Internet traffic

  • Carrier Capex growing by late 2003 into 2004

    • pent-up demand for new service platforms, beginning this year

    • new round of disruption in traditional infrastructure will take off in 2004-2005

  • Next generation of platform designs

    • leveraging applicable off-the-shelf technology

      Leveraging AdvancedTCA !


Telecom and advancedtca
Telecom and AdvancedTCA

  • Continuous gains in underlying technology

    • Memory, processors, fiber and radio bandwidth

  • Very small global market penetration

    • 6B humans, 2B phones

  • Convergence means replacing existing networks

    Substantial, long term, worldwide growth!

    Significant positive impact on humanity

    AdvancedTCA accelerates the process


First mover advantage
First Mover Advantage

Goes to those who move, now…

Have Fun - Make Money !


NMS

COMMUNICATIONS

Technology for tomorrow’s networks


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