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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II. The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output. Zoë O. Ambargis. 65 th Annual AUBER Fall Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8-11, 2011. Outline of Today’s Talk. Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers

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2008 annual i o update of rims ii

2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II

The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output

Zoë O. Ambargis

65th Annual AUBER Fall Conference

Indianapolis, IN

October 8-11, 2011


Outline of today s talk
Outline of Today’s Talk

  • Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers

  • Motivation for making comparisons

  • Factors contributing to differences


Annual update of rims ii
Annual Update of RIMS II

  • Incorporates most recent data

    • More recent information about economy

    • Improvements in statistical methods

  • Evaluating the results shows

    • Changes in national and local economic conditions

    • Changes in technology


Annual vs benchmark
Annual vs. Benchmark

  • Annual:

    • 2008 annual I-O and 2008 regional

  • Benchmark:

    • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2007 regional

    • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2008 regional


Multipliers are generally lower
Multipliers are Generally Lower

Aggregate-level Final-demand Output

Multiplier Statistics


National factors
National Factors

  • Economic conditions

    • Hollowing out of U.S. economy

    • Increase in imports as a share of gross output

    • Changes in value added as a share of gross output

    • Increase in personal saving rates

  • Methodological improvements

    • Calculation of compensation in 2008 annual I-O table


Imports
Imports

U.S. Import Coefficients


Compensation and value added
Compensation and Value Added

Shares of Total Industry Output


Personal spending
Personal Spending

RIMS II Regional Personal Spending Rate

U.S. Personal Tax and Saving Rates


Regional factors
Regional Factors

  • North Carolina

    • Decline in furniture, paper, wood products, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts, and financial services

  • Louisiana

    • Increase in mining, real estate, transportation, and management services

  • Wyoming

    • Increase in mining, support activities for mining


Summary
Summary

  • 2008 annual I-O multipliers generally lower than 2002 benchmark multipliers

  • National and regional effects

  • Effects of technical change

  • Implication on estimated impacts


Thank you
Thank You

Zoë O. Ambargis

RIMS II Section, Regional Product Division

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Phone: 202-606-5343

E-mail: [email protected]

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