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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II. The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output. Zoë O. Ambargis. 65 th Annual AUBER Fall Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8-11, 2011. Outline of Today’s Talk. Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers

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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II

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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II

The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output

Zoë O. Ambargis

65th Annual AUBER Fall Conference

Indianapolis, IN

October 8-11, 2011


Outline of Today’s Talk

  • Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers

  • Motivation for making comparisons

  • Factors contributing to differences


Annual Update of RIMS II

  • Incorporates most recent data

    • More recent information about economy

    • Improvements in statistical methods

  • Evaluating the results shows

    • Changes in national and local economic conditions

    • Changes in technology


Annual vs. Benchmark

  • Annual:

    • 2008 annual I-O and 2008 regional

  • Benchmark:

    • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2007 regional

    • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2008 regional


Multipliers are Generally Lower

Aggregate-level Final-demand Output

Multiplier Statistics


National Factors

  • Economic conditions

    • Hollowing out of U.S. economy

    • Increase in imports as a share of gross output

    • Changes in value added as a share of gross output

    • Increase in personal saving rates

  • Methodological improvements

    • Calculation of compensation in 2008 annual I-O table


Imports

U.S. Import Coefficients


Compensation and Value Added

Shares of Total Industry Output


Personal Spending

RIMS II Regional Personal Spending Rate

U.S. Personal Tax and Saving Rates


Regional Factors

  • North Carolina

    • Decline in furniture, paper, wood products, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts, and financial services

  • Louisiana

    • Increase in mining, real estate, transportation, and management services

  • Wyoming

    • Increase in mining, support activities for mining


Summary

  • 2008 annual I-O multipliers generally lower than 2002 benchmark multipliers

  • National and regional effects

  • Effects of technical change

  • Implication on estimated impacts


Thank You

Zoë O. Ambargis

RIMS II Section, Regional Product Division

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Phone: 202-606-5343

E-mail: [email protected]

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