Toward a Model for Generational Transition of Sustainable Energy Platforms:
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Toward a Model for Generational Transition of Sustainable Energy Platforms: The Greenfield vs. Brownfield Problem. Paul K. Bergey North Carolina State University, USA  & Geoffrey G. Parker Tulane University, USA. “ Our goal is to build a supply chain from lignocellulose to butanol.”

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Toward a Model for Generational Transition of Sustainable Energy Platforms: The Greenfield vs. Brownfield Problem

Paul K. Bergey

North Carolina State University, USA

 &

Geoffrey G. Parker

Tulane University, USA


  • Energy Platforms: Our goal is to build a supply chain from lignocellulose to butanol.”

  • Tony Hayward, (former) CEO of BP

2


A dark cloud appears over ethanol
A Dark Cloud Appears over Ethanol Energy Platforms:

  • In 2008, there were 170 ethanol plants operating in the U.S. and 24 additional plants under construction to provide a total production capacity of approximately 12.6 billion gallons per year

  • In 2009, the Renewable Fuels Association reported that 24 plants with a combined capacity of over 2 billion gallons per year are currently not producing and about 12 were in bankruptcy.


It has a silver biobutanol lining
It Has a Silver (Biobutanol) Lining Energy Platforms:

  • It has a higher energy density per unit volume than ethanol.

  • It is compatible with the existing distribution infrastructure for petroleum based fuels, and thus, can be distributed via the national pipeline network, unlike ethanol.

  • It is highly resistant to moisture absorption and therefore has potential as an aviation fuel

  • It can be burned in existing automobile engines in any blended proportion (up to 100%)

  • It is cleaner burning than gasoline or ethanol


Butamax advanced biofuels llc
Butamax Advanced Biofuels LLC Energy Platforms:

  • “Fuel and fleet testing of biobutanol in real vehicles on real roads – covering a distance of more than 1.3 million vehicle road-miles – has confirmed the high performance advantages of this fuel blend. For example, biobutanol blended at a concentration of 16%* volume into fuels demonstrated excellent vehicle performance. A commercial fuels trial confirmed the compatibility of butanol with existing fuel infrastructure and consumer satisfaction with the product.”



Coalition definitions
Coalition Definitions Energy Platforms:






Two Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for a Non-Empty Core to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game


Exploring equilibria in the dv space
Exploring Equilibria in the DV space to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game


Exploring equilibria in the dv space1
Exploring Equilibria in the DV space to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game


Exploring equilibria in the dv space2
Exploring Equilibria in the DV space to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game


Exploring equilibria in the dv space3
Exploring Equilibria in the DV space to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game


Conclusions
Conclusions to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game

  • The reduced set of sufficiency conditions expose tipping points which yield managerial insights through sensitivity analysis of the core

  • Brownfield conversions only make economic sense when the destruction of a productive economic asset is justified by the avoided cost of an economically equivalent greenfield option

  • Early opportunities arise for brownfield conversions of lower producing high margin plants (particularly those of limited size and opportunistic location)

  • The social benefit of the 2nd generation biofuel plant “should” exceed the social benefit of the 1st generation plant to achieve sustainability of the core

  • Higher levels of 2nd generation biofuel production combined with higher levels of social benefit on a per unit basis of 2nd generation biofuel suggest a stable brownfield grand coalition


Physical Property to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game

i-butanol

n-butanol

Ethanol

Density at 20°C (g/cm³)‏

0.802

0.810

0.794

Boiling Point at 1 atm (⁰C)‏

108

118

78

Water Solubility at 20⁰C (g/100mL water)‏

8.0

7.7

Miscible

Net Heat of Combustion (BTU/gal)‏

95,000

93,000

80,000

R+M/2

103.5

87

112

Blend RVP (psi at 100⁰F) 1

5.0

4.3

18-22

Butanol Physical & Fuel Properties

Promotum, Gevo

18


Bio-Butanol Projecting the 3 to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Gamerd Wave

19


Company to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game

Bug

Bug Strategy

Molecule

Fermentation Process

Separation Strategy

Development Status

Gevo

Yeast

GMO UCLA Valine metabolism

iso-buoh

Semi batch

vacuum flash in situ removal followed by distillation trains

2010 Operating pilot in St. Johns, MO. 2011 Commercial

Cobalt Biofuels

Clostridium

Non GMO strain reduced etoh and acetone

n-buoh for blending w/gasoline, diesel, jet

Continuous modified ABE Fermentation

vapor compression distillation

2010 pilot 10-35k gpy 2011 demo 2-5m gpy 2012 commercial

Tetra Vitae

Clostridium beijerinckii

Non GMO selected for reduced etoh production

n-buoh and acetone 2:1

Semi batch "AB" Fermentation

Carbon dioxide stripping continuous in situ removal followed by distillation trains

2009 300 liter bench 2010 10,000 liter pilot

Butyl Fuel

Clostridiums Aceto & tyro

GMO & mutant strain

n-buoh

Continuous two stage dual path anaerobic fermentation

stripping following immobilized cell bioreactors

Unknown

Syngas Biofuels Energy

Fermentation of Syngas

GMO

n-buoh

Thermochemical catalyst

NA

Unknown

Status Domestic Butanol Companies

20


Company to a 3 player Greenfield vs. Brownfield Game

Bug

Bug Strategy

Molecule

Fermentation Process

Separation Strategy

Development Status

Butamax (DuPont/BP)‏

1.Clostridium 2.E.Coli

GMOs

iso-buoh

Semi batch

continuous in situ removal followed by distillation trains

2010 Salt End Hull, UK 2013 Commercial Additional Feedstocks 2013+

Green Biologics (UK)‏

Clostridium. Mixed populations

GMOs high tolerance (4%)‏

n-buoh

Continuous fermentation

In situ removal unknown.

Building demo in India. Consulting w/Chinese firms

Metex (FR)‏

"Well known bacteria“

GMOs

n-buoh

Unkown

In situ removal unknown.

Unknown

Butalco (Switzerland)‏

Yeast

GMOs

unclear

Unkown

In situ removal unknown.

Unknown

China

Clostridium

Currently selected strain. Migrating to GMOs

n-buoh

Migrating from traditional ABE Fermentation.

May include in situ removal

2010 100MM gpy traditional ABE. 201X migration beyond ABE. Plans to add 350 MM gpy new capacity.

Status International Butanol Companies

21


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