GLOBEC – International
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 34

Existing Programs New Programs Future Projections PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 54 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

GLOBEC – International Integration & Synthesis Activities Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context. Existing Programs New Programs Future Projections. Global sponsors. Regional sponsors. ESSAS. SPACC. CCCC. CCC. CLIOTOP. Southern Ocean GLOBEC.

Download Presentation

Existing Programs New Programs Future Projections

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Existing programs new programs future projections

GLOBEC – InternationalIntegration & Synthesis Activities Steps to place GLOBEC in a Climate Change context

  • Existing Programs

  • New Programs

  • Future Projections

Global sponsors

Regional sponsors


Existing programs new programs future projections

ESSAS

SPACC

CCCC

CCC

CLIOTOP

Southern Ocean GLOBEC

GLOBEC: a Regionally-implemented programme


Nemuro ltl

NEMURO LTL

North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography

  • A consensus conceptual model was designed representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific


Existing programs new programs future projections

Yamanaka et al. (2005)


Nemuro fish

NEMURO.FISH


50 year hindcast to look at regime shift signals in fish populations

50-year hindcast to look at “Regime Shift” signals in fish populations

(Recent request from NOAA to PICES for advice on Regime Shifts – FERRRS Report)


Existing programs new programs future projections

WCVI

Herring growth rate (age 3 to 4)

Temperature

Small zooplankton

Large zooplankton

Predatory zooplankton

Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.


Summary of time series

Summary of time series

All three eastern Pacific locations show a shift in late 70’s:

  • Herring growth increased in Bering Sea, but decreased in WCVI and PWS

  • Temperatures warmed at each location

  • Predatory zooplankton decreased


Existing programs new programs future projections

WCVI

West Coast Vancouver Island:

Zooplankton variation is most important (Temperature effect small)

PWS

Prince William Sound:

Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Zooplankton effect dominant

Bering Sea:

Zooplankton and Temperature variation are important, with Temperature effect dominant

B. Sea

Rose et al. (2006), EM in press.


Existing programs new programs future projections

ESSP Open Science Conference

Marine Ecosystems: Trends, Feedbacks, and Predicting Future States

9-12 Nov. 2006

Future Projection of Ecosystem Change

in the Western North Pacific

Taketo Hashioka1,Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2,

Takashi T. Sakamoto2 and Fumitake Shido1

(1. Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University )

(2. Frontier Research System for Global Change )

Thank to Dr. Maki Noguchi Aita for providing figures.


General hypothesis ecosystem change associated with global warming

Ocean Acidification

Decrease in

CaCO3 Producer

by the Lower PH

(This process is not included in our model)

2/13

General Hypothesis :Ecosystem Change Associated with Global Warming

To predict the ecosystem change quantitatively…

We need to understand, firstly,

which process is more essential for ecosystem change,

and secondly,

how the ecosystem seasonally and regionally

responds to global warming.


Purpose of this study

SeaWiFS

Annual

Mean

Chl-a Conc.

Model Domain (20-60oN, 115-170oE)

5/13

Purpose of This Study

To predict the response of the lower-trophic level ecosystem

to global warming, we conducted and compared

the present-day and global warming experiments,

using a 3-D NEMURO in the western North Pacific.

< Setting of our model >

Ocean General Circulation Model

* CCSR Ocean Component model

(Hasumi et al., 2002)

* Horizontal resolution: 1o x 1o degrees

Ecosystem Model

* 15-Compartment model extended

from NEMURO (Yamanaka et al., 2004)

Boundary conditions for present-day sim.

*Monthly mean climatology

from data-sets of OMIP and WOA 01

Oyashio

Current

Kuroshio Current


Boundary conditions for g w experiment

6/13

Boundary Conditions for G.W. Experiment

A data set of simulated fields according to the IS92aG.W. scenario,

which contributed to the IPCC 3rd report.

(conducted by CCSR/NIES COAGCM ; Nozawa et al., 2001)

IS92a:

Intermediate G.W. Scenario

Boundary Conditions

at the Sea Surface

*Wind Stress

*Sea Surface Temp.

*Fresh Water Flux

*Shortwave Radiation

  *At the end of the 21st century (averaged from 2090 to 2100)


Change in flow field @ 100m

High-resolution model (1/4ox1/6o)

on the Earth Simulator

35N

1m/s

The increase in the Kuroshio Current by 30% associated with G.W. is also

reported by Sakamoto et al. (2005),

using a high-resolution coupled climate model.

0 10 20 30 40 50 [cm/s]

0 3 6 9 12[cm/s]

7/13

Change in Flow Field @ 100m

(Present-day Simulation)

(Global Warming) – (Present-day)

Annual Mean

Annual Mean

Oyashio

Current

40cm/s

Kuroshio Current

+10cm/s

(about 30%)

Increase in the Kuroshio Current from 40cm/s to 50cm/s

at its maximum. associated with global warming.

Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007(in press, the Special Issue of NEMURO in Ecological Modeling)


Existing programs new programs future projections

0.7

-30%

0.5

12/13

Change in Seasonal Variations (0-20m)

Diatoms

Black Line: Pre.

Red Line: G.W.

Non-Diatom

Small Phy.

Phy. Conc.

(umolN/l)

No

Change

Percentage of

Diatoms (%)

Subarctic Site (155E, 45N)

Transition Site (155E, 38N)

Subtropical Site (155N, 28N)

*The onset of the spring bloom is predicted

to occur half a month earlier.

*The maximum biomass in the spring bloom

is predicted todecrease by 30%.

*The change in the dominant group appears

notably at the end of the spring bloom.

*The biomass change at the

transition site is the largest

due to the large change in MLD.


Existing programs new programs future projections

Small Pelagics And Climate Change SPACC


Existing programs new programs future projections

Toward a comparative approach of EBC dynamics.

Discussions are underway for developing a concerted modelling approach involving several Institutes and scientists from EBC regions (led by French IRD)

Canary

Benguela

Humboldt


Are the models complex enough

Are the models complex enough?

(Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.A. Einstein )


Nemuro fish1

NEMURO.FISH


Existing programs new programs future projections

Long-term changes in the abundance

of two key species in the North Sea

Percentage of

C. helgolandicus

(Beaugrand)


Existing programs new programs future projections

Long-term changes in the abundance

of two key species in the North Sea

Calanus finmarchicus

Calanus helgolandicus

12

12

1.6

1

11

11

1.4

0.9

10

10

0.8

1.2

9

9

0.7

8

8

1

0.6

7

7

0.8

0.5

6

6

months

0.4

5

0.6

5

0.3

4

4

0.4

0.2

3

3

0.2

2

0.1

2

1

1

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Years (1958-1999)

Years (1958-1999)


Existing programs new programs future projections

Dynamic Green Ocean Model

Process Observations

N2-fixers

calcifiers

Phaeocystis

diatoms

picophytos

nanophytos

bacteria

SiO2

CaCO3

DOM

microzoo-plankton

Foram-inifera

zoopl. filter feeders

mesozoo-plankton

Validation Observations


Existing programs new programs future projections

Rhomboid Approach

The rhomboids indicate

the conceptual characteristics

for models with different

species and differing

areas of primary focus.

Rhomboid is broadest where

model has its greatest

functional complexity i.e., at

the level of the target

Organism.

deYoung et al, 2004

But how to do it?


Existing programs new programs future projections

predators

Calanus finmarchicus

prey


Existing programs new programs future projections

BASIN

Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and INtegration of oceanographic and climate-related processes and

the dynamics of plankton and fish populations

in the North Atlantic Ocean.

A cooperative project that involves individuals from European and North American countries


Existing programs new programs future projections

NORTH ATLANTIC

OCEAN

SHELF SEAS

Climate forcing of

ocean circulation

(Heath et al.)


Existing programs new programs future projections

BASIN Aim

To understand and simulate the population structure and dynamics of broadly distributed, and trophically and biogeochemically important plankton and fish species in the North Atlantic ocean to resolve the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, and thereby contribute to ocean management.


Modelling basic goals of basin

Modelling: Basic goals of BASIN

  • Hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem over (at least) the last 50 years

  • Construction of scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response to future climate variability

We will focus on four major trophic components

  • Primary production and biogeochemical cycles

  • Zooplankton

  • Planktivorous fish

  • Demersal fish


Proposal to nsf s pire partnership for international research education

US institutions:

UNC-Chapel Hill

LSU

Rutgers

NCAR

Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Japan:

Hokkaido University

JAMSTEC

Tohuku Fisheries Lab

Norway:

Institute of Marine Research

U of Bergen

Bjerknes Center

Proposal to NSF’s PIRE: Partnership for International Research & Education


Objectives

Objectives

  • bring together key individuals from scientific cultures to continue already established partnerships that are developing ideas and approaches on using novel modeling approaches to quantify the impact of climate on marine ecosystems, and

  • teach young scientists and graduate students how to engage and develop international partnerships, and foster long-term programs for scientific and educational collaboration between the US, Japan and Norway, all of which are confronting potential severe changes in the structure and function of high latitude marine ecosystems in response to Earth’s changing climate and other anthropogenic stressors.


  • Login