Propagation trends 2013 2014
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Propagation Trends 2013-2014. Solar Maximum ! A Double Peaked Sunspot Cycle ?. Every 6 Meter DXer Remembers This! The Second Sunspot Peak of Solar Cycle 23. 400 Years of Sunspot Observations 60 years of high sunspot cycles have probably come to an end. 40 years. 70 years.

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Propagation Trends 2013-2014

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Propagation trends 2013 2014

Propagation Trends 2013-2014

Solar Maximum !A Double Peaked Sunspot Cycle ?

Dayton 2013


Every 6 meter dxer remembers this the second sunspot peak of solar cycle 23

Every 6 Meter DXer Remembers This! The Second Sunspot Peak of Solar Cycle 23

Dayton 2013


400 years of sunspot observations 60 years of high sunspot cycles have probably come to an end

400 Years of Sunspot Observations60 years of high sunspot cycleshave probably come to an end

40 years

70 years

Dayton 2013


Solar cycle 24 compared to all solar cycles since 1944

Solar Cycle 24compared to all solar cycles since 1944

Cycle 24

the lowest solar minimum in 100 yearsfollowed by the lowest solar cycle in 100 Years

Dayton 2013


Sunspot cycle 24 progress actual vs prediction

Sunspot Cycle 24 ProgressActual vs. Prediction

Actual

Prediction

Sunspot Number

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif


Solar cycle 24 prediction compared to similar solar cycle 14

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction compared to similar Solar Cycle 14

two years between

Solar Cycle 14 peaks

many solar scientists expect a double peaked Solar Cycle 24

Dayton 2013


Why are there often double sunspot cycle peaks

Why are there Often Double Sunspot Cycle Peaks?

Sunspot Number

solar northern and southern hemisphere sunspot cycle peaks never occur at the same time

Dayton 2013


Propagation trends 2013 2014

Solar Cycle 24 is similar to Cycle 14the solar southern hemisphere sunspot peak occurred two years after the northern hemisphere sunspot peak

two years between sunspot peaks

Sunspot Groups per Month

N

S

southern hemisphere sunspots started to increase

one year after the northern hemisphere sunspot peak

Dayton 2013


The last two solar cycles also had double peaks but very different than weaker solar cycle 24

The Last Two Solar Cycles also had Double Peaksbut very different than weaker Solar Cycle 24

two years between sunspot peaks

two years between sunspot peaks

N

S

N

S

southern hemisphere sunspots started to increase

one year after the northern hemisphere sunspot peak

Dayton 2013


Sunspot production has slowed in both solar hemispheres

Sunspot Production has Slowed in Both Solar Hemispheres

southern hemisphere

sunspot production

slowed after peaking in Jun - Jul 2012

northern hemisphere

sunspot production

slowed after peaking in Sep - Dec 2011

Sunspot Groups per Month

?

N

S

southern hemisphere sunspot production continues to

lag behind northern hemisphere sunspot production

Dayton 2013


Propagation trends 2013 2014

Solar North-South Polar Field Reversalsolar maximum usually occurs whenboth polar fields have reversed polarity

north pole

field reversal in June 2012

(smoothed)

north pole field strength

continues to slowly increase

July 2012 – Mar 2013

field reversal

N

smoothed polar field strength

micro-Tesla

south pole field strength is very slowly decreasing

Dec 2012 – Mar 2013

S

Jan

2012

Jan

2013

the south polar field is progressing very slowly toward field reversal

Dayton 2013


Propagation trends 2013 2014

Weak Solar Cycle 24 has been Unusually Favorable for 160 and 80 MetersThe A-index has been much lower than normal

two years between Solar Cycle 23 peaks

the A index usually increases

during the first two years after solar maximum

unusually low A index

The A-Index may increase moderately

after Solar Cycle 24 maximum

Dayton 2013


A long range estimate of solar cycle 25 are sunspots disappearing

A Long Range Estimate of Solar Cycle 25are sunspots disappearing?

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/pdfs/Solar-Cycle-25-Amplitude-estimate.pdf

some solar scientists expect Cycle 25 to be the weakest solar cycle in 400 years

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/280


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