The Future of Homeland Security

1. The Future of Homeland Security William L. Waugh, Jr. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies Georgia State University FEMA Higher Education Conference Emmitsburg, MD, June 7-9, 2005

2. Homeland Security • DHS was created November 25, 2003 with the signing of the Homeland Security Act of 2002 • DHS combined 22 federal agencies/programs with roughly 170,000 employees (with 25,000-30,000 federal passenger screeners added in 2004) • Direct response to September 2001 attacks • Foci on security of civil aviation and protection of US borders – the major vulnerabilities revealed on 9-11-01 • Homeland Security, prior to DHS, was a policy arena characterized by a competition between DOD and DOJ

3. Components of Homeland Security US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plum Island Animal Disease Center US Department of Commerce Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office US Department of Defense National Biological Warfare Defense Analysis Center National Communications System

4. Components of Homeland Security US Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Nuclear Incident Response Team National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center US Department of Health and Human Services Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Response Assets Strategic National Stockpile National Disaster Medical System Civilian Biodefense Research Programs

5. Components of Homeland Security US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service Office of Domestic Preparedness (FY03 FEMA) National Infrastructure Protection Center (FBI) National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI) US Department of Transportation US Coast Guard Transportation Security Agency

6. Components of Homeland Security US Department of the Treasury Customs Service Secret Service Federal Emergency Management Agency Government Services Administration Federal Protective Service Federal Computer Incident Response Center

7. DHS Manpower in 2003 • USCG – 43,639 employees • TSA – 41,300/70,000 employees • INS/Border Patrol – 39,459 employees • Customs Service – 21,743 employees • Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service – 8,620 employees • Secret Service – 6,111 employees • FEMA – 5,135 employees (2.5-3% of DHS total)

8. DHS Mission We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-flow of commerce.

9. Expected Strengths • Some very successful programs – but success does not always mean survival when administrations change • Strong working relationships with state and local counterparts in some agencies • Strong working relationships with private and nonprofit partners in some agencies • Increasing transparency and openness in working with the public and with state and local officials

10. Expected Obstacles • Intra-organizational problems – integration of 22 agencies/programs – military, law enforcement, agriculture, biomedicine, disaster relief, insurance, fire service, etc. • Inter-organizational problems – coordination with the estimated 100 agencies in 12 departments outside of DHS involved in Homeland Security • Political problems due to turf battles among the 88 separate Congressional committees having oversight

11. Expected Obstacles • Mission problems – reconciling DHS’ non-terrorism related missions – especially insurance and disaster recovery missions • Shared responsibility problems – nation’s intelligence capabilities, namely the CIA and FBI, not part of DHS, but critical to security • Agency administrative problems - Uncertainties concerning “problem” agencies, especially Border Patrol, INS, and Customs Service • Civil Service-related administrative problems – e.g., demographic “bubble”

12. Intra-Organizational Problems • Cultural conflicts, although some components are very small offices or labs • Domination of department by largest agencies - security agencies • Domination of DHS core values by politically influential agencies – Fire Service and NIMS/ICS, USCG and strategic doctrine, Homeland Security Council and strategic priorities

13. Political Problems • Fragmentation of Congressional Homeland Security oversight – but consolidation recommended by 9-11 Commission • Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of accountability for performance – OMB report & Congressional demands for standards – NFPA 1600 and EMAP • Increasing conflict over DHS’ lack of responsiveness to Congressional committees, GAO, and CRS

14. Mission Problems • Declining public support for the Iraq War – the ambiguous “War on Terrorism” • Decreasing private sector willingness to invest in security • Increasing conflicts with state and local counterparts over priorities, funding, etc. • Increasing questions concerning capabilities to do non-counter-terrorism missions – e.g., the 2004 Florida hurricane response

15. Agency-Administrative Problems • Consolidation of INS, Customs, and Border Security – uncertain effectiveness of new structures and continuing intercultural conflicts • Personnel turnover problems – retirements, transfers, poor morale – the civil service demographic “bubble” • Civil service management problems – recruitment, retention, morale

16. Issues to Be Resolved • How to expand from a prevention approach to an all-hazards approach – NRP controversy • How to expand focus from counter-terrorism to dealing with other threats to life and property • How to develop mitigation programs for terrorism as well as for natural and technological hazards • How to transition from prevention to mitigation, response, and recovery functions when attacks cannot be prevented

17. Issues to Be Resolved • How to improve intra-organizational and inter-organizational information sharing • How to resolve turf and culture battles to coordinate national efforts - TOPOFF problems • How to build state and local capabilities to respond to terrorist and non-terrorist threats • How to involve nongovernmental organizations and volunteers – the traditional disaster system resources – in Homeland Security – the Citizens Corps controversy • How to leverage private sector resources for national Homeland Security efforts, including how to get the private sector to protect itself

18. What Is the Future of Homeland Security? • The longer the US goes without a major terrorist attack the quicker the perception of the terrorist threat will dissipate – the policy window will close • Major natural disasters will force a change in the policy agenda – public attention and funding will follow • Homeland Security has to mean more than counter-terrorism if DHS is to thrive

19. What Is the Future of Homeland Security? • Organizational problems within DHS will persist due to: Cultural incompatibilities Integration issues – from patches and badges to hierarchy and openness Inflexibility due to centralization of decision and administrative processes Increased competition for budgets - the ‘gun toters’ vs the rest – size matters Personnel turnover – retirements and flight of senior personnel – “brain drain”

20. What Is the Future of Homeland Security? • Political problems will persist Conflicts with state and local officials over priorities – the old Civil Defense problem Mission failures – problems addressing natural disasters and other secondary missions Demands for greater accountability and for reasonable performance standards

21. Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Year Dead Wounded Major Attack 1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack 1994 6 5 1995 10 60 1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks 1997 6 21 1998 12 11 Embassy bombs 1999 6 6 2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb 2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon 2002 26 35 Afghanistan war 2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)

22. Competing Issues • 2004 Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne Over $1.27 billion in federal and state disaster assistance – billions more in insured and uninsured losses 869,929 registered for disaster assistance High political costs of failure • What happens with the next 8.0+ earthquake centered in major urban area, Force 5 hurricane in a major metropolitan area, the next major flu pandemic, etc.

23. Competing Issues In 2001, 2689 Americans killed in terrorist attacks (CDC MMWR number is 2922) • 33,396 killed in vehicle accidents • 30,622 suicides • 11,671 homicides involving firearms • 3281 drowned • An estimated 400,000 died from tobacco-related causes

24. Predictions • Secret Service will escape DHS • Border security roles will continue to consolidate – but personnel turnover will become a critical issue • Airport passenger screeners will be privatized again – regardless of effectiveness – to shift costs, to reduce the size of DHS, and to appease airline and airport interests • All-hazards approach will be adopted – really adopted – because it is more flexible and more cost-effective than current approach

25. Predictions • The organizational culture of DHS’ central structures will become more focused on coordinative role – simply because the command role is ineffective • “Homeland security” will come to mean more than counter-terrorism • DHS’ natural and technological disaster roles will become more insulated from counter-terrorism roles because the federal government is not the lead for non-terrorist hazards and disasters

26. Total US Casualties, 1993-2003Year Dead Wounded Major Attack 1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack 1994 6 5 1995 10 60 1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks 1997 6 21 1998 12 11 Embassy bombs 1999 6 6 2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb 2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon 2002 26 35 Afghanistan war 2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)