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### Metrics

Dr. Johnny Snyder

Outline - Metrics

- Historical Overview of Metrics
- Time as a Metric
- The FS Metric
- An Example
- Other Metrics in Computer Information Systems
- Conclusion

A Motto -

- “What is not measurable make measurable.”
Galileo Galilei

(1564 – 1642)

The 1950’s

- What metrics?

The 1960’s

- Leonard Kleinrock writes first paper on packet switching.
- First packets sent on ARPANet – 1969.
- Note: The system crashed as the g in login was reached!
(Howe, 2004; Zakon, 2004)

The 1970’s

- ARPANet protocol established.
- Ethernet appeared.
- ARPANet users number 2,000.
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1980’s

- First virus appears.
- BITNET appears (e-mail).
- Number of hosts breaks 1,000; 10,000; then 100,000.
- Archie appears (ftp archiver – Internet index!).
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1990’s

- WWW appears.
- gopher appears (indexing the web).
- Number of hosts surpasses 1,000,000.
- Shopping appears on the Internet!
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 21st Century

- Remember Y2K?
- More than 1,000,000,000 indexed pages.
- Flash mobs, Internet taxes, spam, speed…
- US Census Bureau has 1.5 million page views per day. (Census Bureau, 2004)

Time…

(Baase, 2003)

Time (1)

- Recall that:
for humans.

Time - human

- I.e. in one year, we will all be one year older!

Time (2)

- Also, recall that
for cats.

Time - Cats

- …so in one year our cats will be seven years older!
- note: 18 h.y. = 126 c.y.

Time (3)

- But,
for computers.

Time - computers

- Next year my computer will be 100 years old!

Time (4)

- For the Internet,
because it is moving

fast…

Which metric measures the Internet?

- Speed: powers of 10 (by threes)
- Host growth: exponential
- Number of pages: exponential
- Number of possible paths: factorial

Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907):

“When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it…”

The FS Metric

- As the 21st century evolves, new metrics will have to be developed, explored and tested for validity.
- Many web sites and software tools appeal to the individualistic side of our personalities (as well as cultural and societal norms).

Feng Shui

- A study of how energies in our environment affect the way we live and work in this area (the web) at this time.

Fang Shooy

- A study of how energies in our environment, when left unchecked, can disrupt how we live and work in this environment (the web) at this time.

What does this prove?

- Well…
- Nothing.

What does this illustrate?

- That individual perceptions are hard to quantify and thus measure.

How do we prove conjectures?

- With theorems
- How do we prove theorems?
- With more theorems!
- Postulates
- Axioms

Remember Euclid? (~300 BC)

- Formulated axiomatic system for geometry.
- Stood for more than 2,000 years as the model for organized thinking.
- Axioms are “self-evident truths.”
(Burton, 2003)

What are Internet axioms?

- Words in all uppercase letters are offensive.
- Back buttons are necessary.
- Pop-ups are annoying.
- Speed is good.
- Clutter is bad.

Definitions

- How do you “define” a metric for something like a search engine for cyberspace?

Definitions (2)

- Question: What is the fundamental
purpose of a search engine?

- Answer: To search the web.

Definitions (3)

- First we need a scale.
- How about 1 to 10?
- How about 0 to 100?
- How about -3 to 3 with zero being neutral?

Definitions (4)

- Lets select 0 to 100 with 0 being bad and 100 being good. Further, lets assume that we begin at 100 and subtract points as “errors” are encountered. (axioms violated)

Order*

Calm*

Open*

Passive Colors*

Home Page

No Pop-Ups

Fast Loading

No Horizontal Scrolling

Minuses

Chaos*

Busy*

Cluttered*

Active Colors*

Splash Page

Pop-Ups

Slow Loading

Horizontal Scrolling

Definitions (5)* = Subject to individual interpretation

Example: Search Engines

- Evaluate the major search engines using the following point structure:
- pop-ups - 10
- horizontal scrolling - 8
- scrolling text - 5
- poor colors - 5
- flashing animations - 5
- information overload - 5
- vertical scrolling - 3

Metrics in Systems Analysis and Design

- Gantt Charts and PERT Charts
- Diagramming
- Usability Testing
Level 0 DFD

The System!

Data/Axioms

Results/Theorems

Metrics in E-Commerce

- Click Through Rate (ad click)
- Clickstream Data
- Hit Rate
- Knowledge Curve
- Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate
- Throughput

Metrics in Human Computer Interaction

- Geert Hofstede and dimensions of culture
- Fitt’s Law
- Hick’s Law

Metrics in HCI (2)

- Meyer’s Law
- Power Law of Practice

New Metrics (needed)

- e-waste
- e-pollution
- e-warfare
- e-learning
- e-voting
- e-taxes
- e~2.71828…

Conclusions

- Metrics permeate, somehow, most fields of study.
- CIS is a field where old metrics can be analyzed and applied.
- CIS is a field where new metrics can be formulated, tested and applied.
- That makes CIS interesting and entertaining!

Conclusions (2)

- That is a bit about me and some of the ideas that I am interested in.
- Thanks again for coming!
- Questions?

References

- Baase, S. (2003). A Gift of Fire. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall
- Burton, D. (2003). The History of Mathematics: An Introduction. New York: McGraw-Hill
- Census Bureau, (2004). Retrieved December 1, 2004 from: http://www.census.gov/webdecade

References (2)

- Hofstede, G. (1997). Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. New York: McGraw-Hill
- Howe, W. (2004). A Brief History of the Internet. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html
- Zakon, R. (2004). Hobbes’ Internet Timeline v7.0. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline

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