1 / 29

Yearend 2009: Economic Shocks, Political Ambitions & Challenges for the People in 2010

Yearend 2009: Economic Shocks, Political Ambitions & Challenges for the People in 2010. On the national economic & political situation IBON Foundation January 15, 2010. Global crisis update. World economy in new period of lower economic activity with false/shallow recoveries

chanel
Download Presentation

Yearend 2009: Economic Shocks, Political Ambitions & Challenges for the People in 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Yearend 2009: Economic Shocks, Political Ambitions & Challenges for the People in 2010 On the national economic & political situation IBON Foundation January 15, 2010

  2. Global crisis update • World economy in new period of lower economic activity with false/shallow recoveries • End of debt-driven growth • Another global slump/renewed economic downturn likely • Declining stimulus packages from 2010 • New asset bubbles

  3. Impact on the Philippines • Philippines’ “globalized” sectors deeply affected by economic crisis, economy effectively in recession since 2009 • Economy not “resilient” but developmentally inert – “free market” policies since 1980s have: • Weakened economy • Distorted growth • Increased vulnerability to external shocks • Worsened joblessness

  4. Manufacturing as small as in 1950s 18.5% 15.5% Agriculture smallest ever 1Q-3Q2009p

  5. 2008: 1.24 million deployed Jan-Nov 2009: 1.29 million deployed (3,845 per day)

  6. State of people’s welfare • People’s welfare worsened – • Rising joblessness • Growing poverty • Aggravated by militarization & other man-made disasters following natural disturbances

  7. Record joblessness (unemployment rates) • 2001-08 : 11.2% • 2009 : ~11.0% • IBON’s Oct-09 national survey • 71% of Filipinos rate themselves as poor

  8. 2009 (IBON estimates on NSO data): labor force ~ 39.4 million • ~ 4.3 M unemployed • 35.1 M employed, but poor quality work: • 4.2 M “unpaid family workers” • 12.2 M “own-account workers” • Among “wage & salary workers” • ~ 4.7 M “non-regular” (i.e., contractual, casual, probationary, apprentice, seasonal) • ~ 11.7 M “no written contracts” (i.e., none, verbal contracts only) • 1 out of 3 jobs (12.8 M) part-time work • ~ 25.4-32.4 millionjobless or in poor quality work

  9. Migration & underdevelopment • Unprecedented dependence on overseas work/remittances a sign of backwardness & underdevt • Limits of overseas work as economic lifeline being reached • Adverse affects on welfare of OFWs and families • Creating greater problems for economy as a whole

  10. 2004-2009:Flat (falling?) share of GDP 1990-2004:Rapidly growing share of GDP 1980-90:Slowly rising share of GDP

  11. Renewed fiscal crisis • Descent into fiscal crisis will accelerate in 2010 – • Drastic implications on social services • Portending greater tax burdens • Leading to greater instability

  12. Total debt service 644 B 746 B

  13. Land and livelihoods • Deepening rural poverty and failure of agrarian reform • National resurgence in peasant struggles for land & livelihoods

  14. Hacienda Luisita, Tarlac (Cojuangco-Aquino) • Hacienda Looc, Batangas (Fil-Estate/MSDC) • San Miguel, Bulacan (Villafuerte) • Fort Magsaysay, Nueva Ecija (7th ID, AFP) • San Miguel, Leyte (Veloso) • Bago, Negros Occidental • etc…

  15. Predatory democracy • 2010: country in most advanced state of political crisis since Marcos dictatorship

  16. GMA’s gambit • Charter change untenable for now, Arroyo efforts shifted to May 2010 elections and laying political groundwork for maneuvering under next admin • Political crisis to new and higher level if 2010 elections don’t achieve minimum of credibility – and especially if Arroyo clique resorts to more extreme measures

  17. Elections and change • “Change” an underlying theme of elections out of extreme dissatisfaction with Arroyo government – but prospects under next administration limited at best (however elections play out)

  18. Testing democracy • Elections are unique in seeing parliamentary Left again seeking to expand influence to the national level and engaging in coalition politics

  19. Change beyond elections • Worsening crises has sharpened public desire for change + driven social/mass movements + revolutionary armed groups • Under current economic and political circumstances, cha-cha is change for the worse even in next administration

  20. Key elements for 2010 optimism: Radical socioeconomic reforms, realizing democracy • Improved level of political stability by thwarting ruling Arroyo clique’s maneuvering to stay in power – clean, credible elections • Entry of progressives/pro-people candidates into national level politics • Reliable process of holding Arroyo clique accountablefor transgressions • Momentum to democratization process – stop State-sponsored attacks • Solid repudiation of obsolete globalization policies causing such economic damage

  21. Key elements for 2010 optimism: Radical socioeconomic reforms, realizing democracy • Explicit strategy to build domestic economy and reduce reliance on external sources of growth • More equitable distribution of economic gains to the direct producers • Addressing fiscal troubles in a pro-people manner • Increasing public spending on social services to improve welfare of crisis-battered population •  Grassroots & people’s movements as building blocks of democracy

  22. Salamat po

More Related