College and Career Readiness as a Data Question

1. College and Career Readiness as a Data Question Using Longitudinal, Student-Level Data to Predict Postsecondary Success July 9, 2012

2. Connecting the Dots • Oklahoma SDE’s new Early Warning Indicator System • Oklahoma SDE’s College-, Career- and Citizen-Readiness Goal (each student C3 by 20/20) • The University of Oklahoma’s new Holistic Admissions Process • Oklahoma SDEproposes to develop a new C3predictive analysis tool

3. Early Warning Indicators (1/3) • Grade – The Current or Historical Grade Level (depending on the screen) • District/School – The Current LEA/Site the student is attending. • Scheduled Graduation Date – The year a student would be expected to graduate based on birth date and IEP information • Attendance – The number of absences provided for the current and historical years. Also provided for the current year quarterly. • Core Courses – The number of “D”s or “F”s a student received in Math, Reading or Science for the current quarter, semester and also historically as the data is available. • Other Courses – The number of “D”s or “F”s a student received in classes other than Math, Reading or Science for the current quarter, semester and also historically as the data is available. • Number of Credits – The number of credits earned for the current year and historically.

4. Early Warning Indicators (2/3) • GPA – Students current and historical GPA. Note: We will not be able to provide this element immediately, but it is part of the overall project. • Disciplinary – The number of suspensions (in school/out of school) the student has received for the current year and historically. • Mobility – The number of times a student changed school sites for the current year and historically. • Assessment – All assessment performance levels known for the End of Instruction (EOI) and Oklahoma Core Curriculum Test (OCCT) will be provided. The main screen will show a count of the number where the student fell below “Proficient.” • Intervention Notes – Notes specifically created by the Teacher, Counselor, Principal indicating interventions used to assist the at risk student. • Teacher(s) Names – The name or names of the teachers who taught or are teaching the student historically and currently.

5. Early Warning Indicators (3/3) • Demographic Information • First Name • Last Name • STN – Student Testing Number • Gender • Age • ELL – An indication of whether or not the student is an English Language Learner presently. • Title I – An indication of whether or not the student qualifies for Title I services presently. • Special Ed – An indication of whether or not the child is on an Individualized Education Program (IEP). • Special Ed. Code – The disability code.

6. Early Warning Indicator System

7. Each Student Will Graduate C3 by 20/20 • Graduation Rate with C3 curriculum in 4 years • % of students meeting the benchmark on ACT, SAT, Work Keys • Remediation rates (first year after HS graduation) • % of students proficient or advanced on all EOIs/PARCC • AP/IB Course Completion • % graduating with postsecondary credit (college or career tech) • % of students involved in extracurricular activities

8. The University of Oklahoma’s new Holistic Admissions Process • Academic Preparation and Performance (65%) • Strength of High School Program • High School GPA Class Rank • ACT/SAT Scores • Engagement, Leadership and Others (25%) • Response to application essay and questions • Recommendations • Alumni relationships • Extra-curricular activities • Work experience • Exceptional talents • Writing and Self-Expression (10%) • Application essay • Additional writing samples

9. What do we already know about our students? • Who they are (student demographics) • Where they are (school enrollment & grade level) • Who their teachers are (teacher-student link) • What they are studying (course enrollment) • How well they are doing in school (course grades/credits) • How well they perform on various assessments (test results) • What additional help they are receiving (interventions) • Whether they show up for school (attendance) • Whether they are high mobility (entry & exit) • Whether they have been in trouble at school (suspensions) • Whether they graduate from high school (as an event) • Whether they drop out of school (as an event)

10. Using indicators to identify students at risk of dropping out ? • Early warning indicators signal risk

11. …and to determine the probability of each student’s future success • Expressing the next step in terms of the likelihoodof success

12. Probabilities of Postsecondary Outcomes • Based on available data… • What are my postsecondary goals? College? Career? • Am I College, Career & Citizen (C3) Ready? STEM Ready? Am I ready to succeed relative to my postsecondary goals? • How will taking a more rigorous course of study improve my chances of achieving postsecondary success? • Will different high school pathways or career tech programs improve my chances for success equally? • How engaged am I in school and what does this mean for my chances of achieving postsecondary success? • What majors am I prepared for? In what major am I most likely to earn a degree? • At what (type of) college am I most likely to earn a degree? • How likely is it that I am/will be prepared to thrive in the labor market?

13. Putting the pieces together AP (3+) GPA (Adv.Courses) STEM Ready EXCEEDING INDICATORS REQUIRED/KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ACT/ SAT Readiness GPA (Core Courses) CCR Diploma CTE Certificate Student Goals Engagement Technical/Critical Direct/Strong Baseline Overall GPA College Credits Course Taking Test Taking Mobility Attend-ance Senior Project CTE Courses Indirect/Weak Pre-Requisite Behavior & Discipline Extra Curricular Activities Research Paper Work / Intern-ship Non-Core Courses Portfolio Course Access Effective Teacher

14. C3 readiness and college success • THE CONE OF OPPORTUNITY • Open pathway to postsecondary degree attainment(certificates, associate and bachelor degrees) • Readiness for specific majors • First year math course • First year GPA anddegree credits Top Quartile Postsecondary Outcomes? 2nd Quartile Linking Certificates to Specific Majors/Programs 3rd Quartile Range of Majors/Programs Bottom Quartile College, Career and Citizen (C3) Readiness AP (3+) GPA (Adv.Courses) STEM Ready EXCEEDING INDICATORS REQUIRED/KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ACT/ SAT Readiness GPA (Core Courses) CCR Diploma CTE Certificate Student Goals

15. C3 readiness and workplace success • THE CONE OF OPPORTUNITY • Open pathway to “good jobs” (high earnings, job stability and career advancement) • Easy acquisition of newskills and transition to new opportunities Top Quartile Postsecondary Outcomes? 2nd Quartile Certificates to Specific Occupations/Careers 3rd Quartile Range of Occupations/Careers Bottom Quartile College, Career and Citizen (C3) Readiness AP (3+) GPA (Adv.Courses) STEM Ready EXCEEDING INDICATORS REQUIRED/KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ACT/ SAT Readiness GPA (Core Courses) CCR Diploma CTE Certificate Student Goals

16. Challenges & Next Steps • Securing data • Securing resources • Identifying partners • Completing analysis • Developing tools • Communications with stakeholders • Multi-state comparisons

17. Questions & Answers John Kraman Executive Director, Student Information Oklahoma State Department of Education john.kraman@sde.ok.gov 405-521-4892