Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting: Needs of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry

Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting: Needs of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting: Needs of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry

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1. Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting: Needs of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry NTVA Mini seminar Bergen 3.November 2004

2. Offshore: Where are Metocean data important

3. The offshore industry’s needs for ocean monitoring and forecasting will vary with location Relation between ”regular” conditions and extremes Gulf of Mexico vs. the North Sea The general climate conditions The northern Barents Sea vs. West Africa

4. The offshore industry’s needs for ocean monitoring and forecasting will vary with Phase and Concepts The phase of a project Installation vs. daily operation The concept Floaters vs. sub-sea development

5. Wind & Waves

6. Currents are marginally important to fixed structures but may have impact on floaters

7. Drilling

8. Sub-sea solutions have limited use of ocean monitoring and forecasting

9. Mapping of Local Topography and other surveys

10. High Precision Subsea Rock Installation

11. Seabed Dredging by innovative new Equipment Near sea bed current forecast and now-cast may be helpful

12. Pipeline installation in deep water and down steep slopes

13. Heavy lifts, e.g. templates Reliable wave(swell) forcasts for prediction of surface vessel response Will also benefit from knowing complete current profile, but surface and sea bed most important. Operation over in few hours.

14. Onshore terminals: Loading and unloading

15. Summary requirements on current monitoring and forecasting for offshore industry Need by a single user will often be intermittent BUT when there is need Monitoring and forecasts must be accessible continuously (reliability) There must be possibilities to include the whole current profile It must be possible for users to receive real-time data Possibilities to extend the forecasts to at least 1 – 2 days ahead Forecasts must be accurate in time AND space OR The forecasts must be presented in terms of percentages of ”success” The system must be able to catch sudden changes The presentations/displays must be easy to understand and comprehend Oil spill combat and rescue will need surface current monitoring and forecasting

16. Example of what kind of current forecasting may be required

17. Current Pattern Snapshot: Model run 30 June 1997

18. A personal perception of Current Prediction Status, with Ormen Lange as basis Forecasting and real-time monitoring services are available today Ocean Focus in Gulf of Mexico (Ocean Numerics) Surface currents and other features over large areas CODAR Satellites Current and temperature profiles with current meters and thermistors using hydroacoustic modem Rig based systems For Norwegian waters Ocean Current Models not good enough for stand-alone prediction Events/phenomena and their causes only partly understood Current prediction system for Ormen Lange operations will have to be a based on a man-machine interaction Real-time monitoring provides forecaster with data and trends Forecaster uses knowledge on events, their signals and their time scales as well as model output to evaluate future development, e.g. in qualitative probability terms relative to critical values Warnings are issued (fax or PC-based, graphics or words)

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