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Accounting for uncertainty in water management: why and how do we

Accounting for uncertainty in water management: why and how do we. Dirk-I. Müller-Wohlfeil Funen County - Denmark Groundwater department. Outline. Why are tools for uncertainty assessment crucial for water manager’s daily work and in what respect? How are they applied up to now ?

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Accounting for uncertainty in water management: why and how do we

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  1. Accounting for uncertainty in water management: why and how do we Dirk-I. Müller-Wohlfeil Funen County - Denmark Groundwater department

  2. Outline • Why are tools for uncertainty assessment crucial for water manager’s daily work and in what respect? • How are they applied up to now? • Needs for the improvement of current procedures • Focus on output to specify input

  3. Uncertainty assessment is included in modelling Mapping and modelling in groundwater / water resources management in Denmark • Since 1998: Mapping of groundwater vulnerability leading to local action planning for protection of water resources (like WFD) • Geological mappinggroundwater modelling • Politicians and legislation require reliable and crisp administrative units despite fuzziness and uncertainty in data and tools

  4. Applied uncertainty assessments • Effects of parameter uncertainty on particle tracking to delineate groundwater protection areas in space and time Autocal / Ucode / pest • Parameter sensitivity • Optimisation • Uncertainty • Problems still to be agreed upon and clarified: • What time distances should be applied ? • How can particle tracking used to identify most CONTRIBUTING areas?

  5. HarmoniRib Improvement of current procedures • No quality assurance with respect to “representative data” • No standardised guidelines for uncertaintyassessment among the regional authorities • Procedures needto beappliedin an ”iterative way” • Account for various other uncertainties incl. climate change

  6. Conceptual geological models Derivationsimulationmodel Calibration Uncertainty: Water resource modellingfocus on output to define input • Data • Geophysics • Geology • Soils • Weather • Water management 9 layer model (regional requirements) 11-layer model(local requirements) almost samemodelfit • Need to reconsider and extend calibration targets • Sensitivity of the methods with respect to model input • Need to improve gathering and modelling of input data

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