PA1-LR SODAR PROFILES. 9/4/02-9/06/02. Forecast for 09/04/02:.
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MM5 and ETA forecast soundings look awfully dry for Weds and today's FFC shows good mid-level drying, thanks to upper level ridging, so it's tempting to pull the trigger. I'm relying on leftover easterly component, however, to keep metro just below alert tomorrow, plus today's 1300 levels looks a little slow to rebound. Temp at 850 climbs near 20 degC, while RH lowers to near 70% at 18Z, more conducive to ozone production.
Tough cap to break today (Tc=94F) from FFC rawinsonde. Also worried we may go into red today based on recirculation towards Douglasville and Yorkville, thanks to Newnan yesterday. I believe ETA may be overdoing PW and low-level RH for tomorrow, plus huge pocket of NVA (due to good subsidence from Gulf depression and Eduard) starts backing down from upstate SC late Friday into Saturday. This should set the stage for a decent orange Friday and possible red heading into Saturday.
Upper level ridge from Atlantic High continues to provide enough drying aloft from high level subsidence. Only wildcard is low-level easterly flow. If light enough, then today's carry over plus local production on Saturday should carry us into orange. With low-level moisture starved over us due to Gulf systems circulating in NW Gulf, moisture and convective parameters look good for an ozone alert around metro area tomorrow.