Improving the noaa joint global osse system for lidar data impact evaluation
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Improving the NOAA Joint global OSSE System for Lidar data impact evaluation. Yuanfu Xie 1 , Yu Zhang 1 Zoltan Toth 1 , and Bob Atlas 2. Global Systems Division. 1 Forecast Applications Branch 2 AOML. Outline. Review the joint global OSSE system; Some regional OSSE effort;

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Improving the NOAA Joint global OSSE System for Lidar data impact evaluation

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Improving the noaa joint global osse system for lidar data impact evaluation

Improving the NOAA Joint global OSSE System for Lidar data impact evaluation

Yuanfu Xie1, Yu Zhang1

Zoltan Toth1, and Bob Atlas2

Global Systems Division

1Forecast Applications Branch

2AOML


Outline

Outline

  • Review the joint global OSSE system;

  • Some regional OSSE effort;

  • Development of a new regional nature run;

  • Improvement for global OSSE system;

  • Future work


Joint global osse system

Joint Global OSSE system

  • The OSSE system is based on the NCEP operational system, GFS and GSI (3DVAR);

  • Nature Run (“truth”) is from ECMWF’s 13 month free forecast (May 1, 2005 to June 31, 2006) at T511 and 91 levels;

  • Synthetic observations:

    • Conventional observation data (NCEP);

    • Satellite radiance data (NCEP and NASA GMAO);

    • UAS and WISDOM data (ESRL).

  • Calibration through data denial (ESRL).


Joint global osse applications

Joint Global OSSE Applications

  • UAS OSSE (ESRL): a report of data impact;

  • WISDOM OSSE (ESRL): some results but further improvement needed with targeting obs schemes;

  • Wind lidar OSSE (NCEP and JCSDA): presented in May LWG

  • Atmospheric river OSSE: planning.


Wisdom osse

WISDOM OSSE

110 WISDOM launch sites; every 30 min: 21312 data


Impact of wisdom on track

Impact of WISDOM on Track

The impact of WISDOM data on hurricane track

forecast at different forecast time


Issues for lidar osse

Issues for Lidar OSSE

  • T511 resolution of NR may need upgrade

    • Higher resolution ECMWF nature run;

    • FIM or other global model forecast for a new NR;

  • The current data assimilation system needs upgrade

    • Hybrid GSI for taking advantage of flow dependency;

    • Other fine scale data assimilation with hotstart capability;

  • Existing ensemble forecast cannot be used for hybrid data assimilation or targeting observation.


Improving the noaa joint global osse system for lidar data impact evaluation

Acknowledgment: Riishojgaard et al: May LWG meeting

500hPa HGT anomaly correlation coefficients (T382)

NH

SH

1.8%

1.2%

Impact of DWL observations is larger at the higher resolution (T382), even though skill of control is higher

Lidar Working Group, Miami, May 1-2 2012


Regional osses

Regional OSSEs

To address the resolution issue, one solution is regional

  • AOML and UM have developed a regional NR for hurricane applications embedded in the global OSSE;

  • ESRL is studying a new nature run approach for regional OSSEs

    • Fine scale NWP model forecasts nudged towards large scale analysis;

    • All existing ensemble forecasts can be used for targeting or hybrid data assimilation.


Nudged nature run towards global analysis

Nudged Nature Run towards Global Analysis

  • Initial/Boundary

    • GFS 0.5 degree analysis data

  • Run time

    • From 11th Mar. to 18th Mar.

    • grid points: 402×468

  • Domain

    • D3, but the resolution is 3km


Nudging effects upper level

Nudging effectsupper level


Improving global osse for lidar

Improving Global OSSE for Lidar

  • Upgrade the nature runs to finer resolution as discussed above;

  • Upgrade the data assimilation system from GSI to GSI hybrid system

    • The hybrid can take flow dependent covariance to improve lidar data impact;

    • Ensemble forecasts are needed for the current nature run.

  • Upgrade GFS to higher resolution with fine NRs.


Acknowledgment daryl t kleist at ncep

Acknowledgment: Daryl T. Kleist at NCEP

Single 850mb Tv observation (1K O-F, 1K error)


Future works

Future Works

  • Develop a comprehensive Lidar OSSE plan with this Lidar Working Group;

  • Adapt the hybrid GSI data assimilation system into the current global OSSE system;

  • Develop new and fine resolution OSSE nature runs;

  • Calibrate improved global and new regional OSSEs.


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