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Integrated Assessment Modelling project in Italy.

Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention. Integrated Assessment Modelling project in Italy. Case study on the effects of the National Sea Traffic emissions on air pollutant concentrations over the land.

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Integrated Assessment Modelling project in Italy.

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  1. Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Integrated Assessment Modelling project in Italy. Case study on the effects of the National Sea Traffic emissions on air pollutant concentrations over the land. G. Zanini, G. Vialetto, L. Vitali, T. Pignatelli, F. Monforti, C. Salgò, I. D’Elia ENEA, Bologna and Casaccia Research Centres G. Brusasca, G. Calori, S. Finardi, P. Radice, C. Silibello ARIANET, Milano TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  2. Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention The MINNI Project • MINNI is the Italian acronym for Integrated National Model as supporting tool for the International Negotiation on atmospheric pollution • Started in 2002 in the framework of an agreement with the Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Territory • Tool under development jointly by ENEA, IIASA and ARIANET TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  3. Scenario AMS-Italy RAINS-Italy Atmospheric Transfer matrices RAINS = Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation AMS = Atmospheric Modelling System The MINNI project Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  4. MINNI: Atmospheric Modelling System Meteo sub-system Emission sub-system Space, time, species info RAMS Emission Manager Reference meteo year Emission scenario Transfer matrices FARM RAINS Italy ECMWF fields Ref. inventory EMEP B.C. Local data Conc & dep. fields Chemical-transport sub-system Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  5. MINNI: RAINS-Italy Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention • RAINS-Italy characteristics: • - Area Sources: 20 administrative regions, 4 metropolitan areas (Milan, Turin, Rome and Naples), 1 National Sea Traffic • Point sources: 14 Large Combustion Plants (refineries and power plants) • ATM from AMS with 20x20 km2 spatial resolution • RAINS-Italy output (for each area and point sources): • Emission scenarios: SO2, NOx, VOCs, NH3, PM and O3 • Deposition/concentration maps for acidification, eutrophication, PM and O3 • National and regional abatement cost curves • PM and O3 health impacts TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  6. SOx (kt) NOx (kt) PM10 (kt) Fuel consumption (PJ) Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Case study: National Sea Traffic Region Emission scenarios and marine fuel consumption 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  7. EMISSION SCENARIOS: Medium & Large vessels Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention SOx NOx TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  8. AMS Simulation: Zero shipping emissions Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Percentage of reduction of SO4 in PM concentrations (reference year 1999) TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  9. AMS Simulation: Zero shipping emissions Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Percentage of reduction of PM2.5 concentrations (reference year 1999) TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  10. RAINS-Italy scenario Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention 2000 2020 Sulphur deposition from National Sea Traffic TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  11. RAINS-Italy scenario Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention 2000 2020 Nitrogen deposition from National Sea Traffic TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

  12. Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Conclusions • Sulphur deposition is worsening in the next 15 years (with the peak values in the area around Naples) • AMS simulations show an influence of the emissions over the sea region surrounding Italy on the PM2.5 and Sulphate concentrations which is not restricted to the coast line • With respect to the Po Valley, the sea traffic region seems to contribute to PM2.5 and Sulphate concentrations close to 15% TFIAM Meeting, Gothenburg, 8-9 December 2005

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