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M eteorological C onditions A ssociated with the 2008 Midwest Flood

M eteorological C onditions A ssociated with the 2008 Midwest Flood. Ray Wolf NOAA / National Weather Service Davenport, Iowa. University of Iowa – Learning from the Flood, October 6, 2008. Outline. About the NWS The NWS role in the flood event The weather behind the flood

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M eteorological C onditions A ssociated with the 2008 Midwest Flood

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  1. Meteorological Conditions Associatedwith the 2008 Midwest Flood Ray Wolf NOAA / National Weather Service Davenport, Iowa University of Iowa – Learning from the Flood, October 6, 2008

  2. Outline • About the NWS • The NWS role in the flood event • The weather behind the flood • Event perspective

  3. National Weather Service -an agency of the Federal government US Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service

  4. NWS Mission • The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the US, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

  5. NWS Operations • ~4500 people • 174 offices

  6. NWS Operations • Collect data – surface, upper air, radar, • satellite, solar • Forecasts and Warnings • Public – severe and winter weather • Aviation • Rivers • Fire Weather • Marine • Tropical • Climate • Space

  7. NWS Davenport

  8. NWS Partnerships Research Community FEMA

  9. And now the weather… • Heavy winter snow • + Significant flooding in April (high river levels) • + Extremely moist soils • + Heavy June rains • -------------------------------------- • = Historic flooding

  10. River Basins Extended period of heavy snow then heavy rain from November through June in the red shaded area

  11. Winter Snow – mid February

  12. Winter Snow Water Equivalent

  13. Winter Snowfall Totals (inches)

  14. April Precipitation

  15. April Soil Moisture

  16. April River Levels

  17. June Rainfall

  18. June Rainfall

  19. Precipitation Summary

  20. Precipitation Summary Cedar Rapids, Iowa - 2008

  21. June Soil Moisture

  22. Hydrograph – Cedar Rapids

  23. Hydrograph – Iowa City

  24. Satellite View – Polar Orbiter

  25. Cedar Rapids

  26. Iowa City

  27. Jet Stream level • << Mean from Jan – Jun • Anomaly >> 6 miles up

  28. 500 mb Height Anomaly chart 3 miles up

  29. 850 mb moisture 1 mile up

  30. La Nina? • La Nina – cold event • Normal – neutral • El Nino – warm event

  31. La Nina? – likely not a key factor La Nina precipitation composite brown = drier than normal green = wetter than normal

  32. Global climate change? • No single event can be attributed to climate change • Regional climate is trending wetter • There are indications that heavy precipitation events are becoming more common

  33. Perspective

  34. Perspective

  35. Perspective

  36. Perspective

  37. Perspective • 1 in a 100 year = 1% chance each year • 1 in a 500 year = 0.2% chance each year • Climate is becoming wetter – fact • Climate change suggests higher probabilities of such events • Land use changes, i.e., urbanization increases rate of runoff

  38. ?? Questions ?? • ray.wolf@noaa.gov

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