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LAC: ECONOMIA, COMERCIO Y TRANSPORTE MARITIMO. Notas para la reflexión sobre el futuro de los puertos en Chile y en América Latina. Ricardo J. Sánchez Chief Infrastructure Services Unit Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division. Oportunidades y Desafíos.

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LAC: ECONOMIA, COMERCIO Y TRANSPORTE MARITIMO

Notaspara la reflexiónsobre el futuro de los puertos en Chile y en América Latina

Ricardo J. Sánchez

Chief

Infrastructure Services Unit

Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division


Oportunidades y desaf os
Oportunidades y Desafíos

El entorno económico de ALC: una oportunidad

El problema de la infraestructura: un desafío

Actividad portuaria y los cambios en los mercados portuarios

La cascada: un desafío y una oportunidad

Los nuevos escenarios: grandes desafíos

Cambio en el paradigma portuario?

La institucionalidad…


  • Tres realidades distintas en la región: Sudamérica, Centroamérica y el Caribe

  • Desafío de manejar la coyuntura volátil sin hipotecar lo alcanzado incluyendo en materia social

  • La región dispone de instrumentos para enfrentar los desafíos del entorno externo:

    • El crecimiento, aunque moderado, se sostendrá

    • Las reservas internacionales se sitúan en niveles inéditos

    • Las finanzas públicas están bajo control

    • Relación deuda/PIB se mantiene en 35% promedio

  • Los factores que conspiran contra ello:

    • Inflación

    • Apreciación cambiaria

    • Déficit en cuenta corriente

    • Volatilidad en los mercados financieros


Global growth slowed sharply in 2011 after the recovery from the crisis
Global growth slowed sharply in 2011 after the recovery from the crisis

WORLD GDP GROWTH RATES, 2009-2012

(Percentages)

a/ Estimate. b/ Projection.


International economic fragilities are worsening
International economic fragilities are worsening the crisis

  • Europe may be on the threshold of a lost decade.

  • The response to the sovereign debt crisis in several European countries is revolving around fiscal adjustment, with no policies to boost growth.

  • There are some positive growth signals in the United States, but political gridlock has prevented measures to stimulate short-term economic growth and ensure long-term sustainability.

  • Global coordination (monetary and fiscal), which was crucial during the 2008-2009 crisis, is now weaker.


Nevertheless, for much of 2011 the external environment was benign for the region – albeit with differences among groups of countries

LATIN AMERICA: TERMS OF TRADE, 2005-2011

(Index: 2005=100)


Subregional performance has been closely tied to international trade over the past few years
Subregional benign for the region – albeit with differences among groups of countries performance has been closely tied to international trade over the past few years

EXPORTS BY SUBREGION, 2008 -2011ª

(Index: 2008 = 100)

a/ Projections.

Note: Absolute figures refer to the values of exports, the percentages to the cumulative increase between 2009 and 2011.


Exports benefited especially from high commodity prices since volumes grew relatively little
Exports benefited especially from high commodity prices, since volumes grew relatively little

LATIN AMERICA: ESTIMATED VARIATION IN EXPORT VALUES BY VOLUME AND PRICE, 2011

(Percentages)


Still robust domestic demand was reflected in a surge in import volumes
Still-robust domestic demand was reflected in a surge in import volumes

LATIN AMERICA: ESTIMATED VARIATION IN THE VALUE OF IMPORTS

BY VOLUME AND PRICE, 2011

(Percentages)


Thus growth is projected to slow again in 2012 but moderately to 3 7
Thus, growth is projected to slow again in 2012, but moderately: to 3.7%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, 2012

(Percentages)


Macroeconomic policy challenges shifted over the year and the countries produced differentiated responses

  • Rising inflation

  • Sharp currency appreciation in the first part of the year

  • Need to rebuild fiscal space

  • Need to sustain growth

  • Threat of a sharper slowdown as the external environment deteriorated in the second half of the year


Lac infrastructure gap
LAC: INFRASTRUCTURE GAP the countries produced differentiated responses

  • SERIE DE DATOS: Inversión anual en infraestructura económica. Energía Transporte terrestre Telecomunicaciones Agua y saneamiento. Período 1980 – 2008

  • 6 Países representativos de América Latina (85.5% del PIB LA)

  • La fuente de información para inversiones privadas fue provista por el Banco mundial. En el caso de las inversiones públicas hay una amplia gama de fuentes debido a la dificultad de obtener la información sobre infraestructura. Se incluyen planes generales de inversión del gobierno, balances de empresas públicas, etcétera.

  • FUENTES

  • Actualizaciones de los autores de la base de información del Banco Mundial –Luis Servén y César Calderón–

  • Perrottiy Sánchez (2011) “Infrastructure gap in LAC”, CEPAL, Serie DRNI 153, Santiago de Chile


* the countries produced differentiated responses

Datos agregados

  • Las inversiones en infraestructura han caído considerablemente -en términos de PIB- al observar el período entero. Comenzando desde un 3.6 % del PIB en el promedio de 1980-1985 al 2.1 % invertido en el período 2007 y 2008.

  • La inversión pública fue la razón principal de esta caída (un promedio del 3 % de PIB en 1980-1985 al 0.8 % en 2007 y 2008). Mientras que la inversión privada alcanzó su punto máximo en el período pasado con el 1.3 % del PIB.

Fuente: los autores


Dinámica de la inversión y el producto the countries produced differentiated responses

Ricardo J. Sánchez | CEPAL | Naciones Unidas [email protected]

  • Series de inversión y producto en valores constantes

  • 3.1. La inversión total en América Latina, 1980-2008

  • Inversión en infraestructura – eje izquierdo (como % del PIB constante)

  • PIB constante – eje derecho (variaciones anuales, %)

Fuente: los autores


Dinámica de la inversión y el producto the countries produced differentiated responses

Ricardo J. Sánchez | CEPAL | Naciones Unidas [email protected]

  • Serie de inversión y producto en valores constantes

  • 3.2. Análisis de resultados y volatilidad de la inversión pública y privada

  • Tendencia de la inversión pública en infraestructura

  • (como % del PIB constante)

  • Fuente: los autores


    Dinámica de la inversión y el producto the countries produced differentiated responses

    Ricardo J. Sánchez | CEPAL | Naciones Unidas [email protected]

    • Serie de inversión y producto en valores constantes

    • 3.2. Análisis de resultados y volatilidad de la inversión pública y privada

    • Tendencia de la Inversión Privada en Infraestructura

    • (como % del PIB constante)

    Fuente: los autores


    Crowding the countries produced differentiated responses in/out

    Ricardo J. Sánchez | CEPAL | Naciones Unidas [email protected]

    • MODELO 1 Crowding In/Out

    • I P= f (IG, Y, r, TC, Inst,Openness)

    • IPIt = α0 + α1 IGIt-1 + α2 IPIt-1 + α3 Yt + α4 rt + α5 TCt + α6 Instt + εt

    • Donde:

    • IPIt = Inversión privada en infraestructura

    • IGIt = Inversión pública en infraestructura

    • Yt = Producto Bruto Interno (neto de inversión)

    • rt = Tasa de interés como variable proxy del costo financiero (WDI)

    • TCt = Tipo de cambio real

    • Instt = Desempeño institucional (indicador de calidad, WB)

    • Apertura de la cuenta de capitales, comercial, riesgo país.


    Crowding the countries produced differentiated responses in/out

    Ricardo J. Sánchez | CEPAL | Naciones Unidas [email protected]

    Efecto de la Inversión en Infraestructura sobre la Inversión en el resto de la Economía

    • ANALISIS I Crowding In/Out - Correlaciones

    Efecto de la inversión en infraestructura sobre el resto de la inversión

    IT: Inversión Total de la Economía

    II : Inversión total en Infraestructura

    IT: Inversión Total de la Economía

    II T: Inversión en Infraestructura de Transporte

    IT: Inversión Total de la Economía

    II E: Inversión en Infraestructura de Energía


    * the countries produced differentiated responses

    El costo de cerrar la brecha de infraestructura 2006-2020

    Inversiones necesarias para cerrar la brecha: 5.2% del PIB

    o 7.9% !!!

    Pero… 6.2%

    (2012-2020)


    Geography of the the countries produced differentiated responsescontainerised maritime trade is changing in Latin America and the Caribbean: 2008-2011


    Evolution of containerized latin america and the caribbean port throughput teus
    Evolution of containerized Latin America and the countries produced differentiated responsesthe Caribbean port throughput (TEUS)


    Latin america and the caribbean average inter annual variation
    Latin the countries produced differentiated responsesAmerica and the Caribbean average inter annual variation


    Latin america and the caribbean average inter annual variation1
    Latin the countries produced differentiated responsesAmerica and the Caribbean average inter annual variation


    Latin america and the caribbean port ranking variation
    Latin the countries produced differentiated responsesAmerica and the Caribbean port ranking variation


    Lac fullcontainerships maximum size 1984 2020
    LAC: Fullcontainerships maximum size 1984-2020 the countries produced differentiated responses


    Estimating the maximum size
    Estimating the maximum size … the countries produced differentiated responses

    • Where: “i” represents the specific route and “t” the year

    • Max_Size: is the maximum size of a vessel arrived on year “t” to destinatinon “I” (West or East coast)

    • D: represents a variable that accounts for demand side (this variable was represented by three alternative measures: port activity, gdp and trade)

    • Gap: it’s the difference between the max_size of the main trade routes and the coast “I” at the year “t”

    • Network: represents the complexity of networks

    • α: represents specific characteristics of coast “i”

    We expect a direct relationship between the explanatory variables and the maximum size of the ships. Hypothesis: the arrival date of ships from ~ 13 000 TEUs

    RESULTS


    The Americas: a new scenario? the countries produced differentiated responses


    The Americas: a new scenario? the countries produced differentiated responses


    The current triangle (J. P. R.) the countries produced differentiated responses


    The new inverted triangle the countries produced differentiated responses


    The Americas: a new scenario? the countries produced differentiated responses


    A new paradigm for ports
    A new paradigm for ports…? the countries produced differentiated responses

    Blue = waterway

    Red = highway

    MCT

    Inland hub location between deep sea terminals and hinterland terminals

    A16

    A15

    Figures MCT

    Draft: 8,9 m

    Barge: 4,5 hours to Delta

    Rail: 2,5 hours to Delta

    Truck: 1,2 hours to Delta without traffic jam

    Amsterdam

    Rotterdam

    Duisburg

    MCT

    Inland terminals

    Germany (Rhine)

    Inland terminals

    South-Netherlands

    Antwerp

    Willebroek


    A new paradigm for ports o r metro
    A new paradigm for Ports…? the countries produced differentiated responsesor Metro?


    A new paradigm for ports1
    A new paradigm for ports…? the countries produced differentiated responses

    (1) Through subsidiary company ZIM Ports; (2) Through subsidiary company Terminal Link; (3) Duisport is the fifth shareholder with a share of 7.5%; (4) Unconfirmed reports put NYK’s ECT interest at 10%.


    Institutional challenge ! the countries produced differentiated responses


    Thank the countries produced differentiated responses

    You!

    Ricardo J. Sánchez

    Chief

    Infrastructure Services Unit

    Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division

    United Nations ECLAC

    +56 2 210-2131

    [email protected]

    http://www.eclac.org/transporte

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