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Factors responsible for emission changes 1960-2020 Henning Wuester (at IIASA, May to August 2000)

Factors responsible for emission changes 1960-2020 Henning Wuester (at IIASA, May to August 2000). Motivation: Understanding changes in emissions. The environmental Kuznets curve. Environmental Effects: acidification. 2020. 1960. 1980. Data for 1960-2020.

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Factors responsible for emission changes 1960-2020 Henning Wuester (at IIASA, May to August 2000)

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  1. Factors responsible for emission changes 1960-2020 • Henning Wuester • (at IIASA, May to August 2000)

  2. Motivation:Understanding changes in emissions

  3. The environmental Kuznets curve

  4. Environmental Effects: acidification 2020 1960 1980

  5. Data for 1960-2020 • Use of RAINS database for SO2 and NOx • Need to work across 2 versions of the RAINS model Use of official emission data to adjust RAINS model data for ammonia • Extend scenario up to 2020 using results of “shared analysis” and Gothenburg ceilings

  6. Differences (> 10%) between RAINS and national estimates

  7. The scenario up to 2010 • The following Signatories to the Gothenburg Protocol and will not automatically meet the Protocol emission ceilings in 2010: • For SO2: Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine and United Kingdom. • For NOx: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden and United Kingdom.

  8. The scenario up to 2020 • The following Signatories to the Gothenburg Protocol and will not automatically remain below the Protocol emission ceilings in 2020: • For SO2:. Only Austria and the Netherlands (and only minor additional abatement effort (of 1-4 kt) required) • For NOx:. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia (due to large growth in the transport sector)

  9. Decomposition of emission changes -Four main determinants: • 1. Control measures: Difference between controlled and (hypothetical) uncontrolled emissions as given by RAINS • 2. Energy consumption: increase/decrease in overall energy consumption • 3. Structural change: change in the share of different fuels • 4. Changes within a sector/fuel category: Technological changes, changes in sulphur content, changes in specific fuel mixes within a category

  10. Decomposition of emission changes -The 12 sector/fuel categories:

  11. SO2 emissions: European total 1960-2020 (Avoided emissions compared to hypothetical levels due to energy growth)

  12. SO2 emissions compared to 1980: European total

  13. Factors influencing SO2 emission changes 1960-2020

  14. SO2 emissions compared to 1960: Netherlands

  15. SO2 emissions compared to 1960: United Kingdom

  16. SO2 emissions compared to 1960: Poland

  17. SO2 emissions compared to 1980: Former GDR/Germany new Länder

  18. NOx emissions compared to 1960: European total

  19. NOx emissions: European total 1990-2020 (Avoided emissions compared to hypothetical levels due to energy growth)

  20. Factors influencing NOx emission changes 1960-2020

  21. Some general conclusions • Structural change has contributed significantly to emission reductions of SO2 and much less so for NOx. • Changes in the energy structure increased NOx emissions in the 1990s. • Abatement measures become increasingly important at the European level on a whole. • Differences between countries are large, but they are expected to decrease as countries move towards reaching the Gothenburg Protocol ceilings: also those that relied on changing energy structures or energy savings will have to take targeted abatement measures.

  22. Further work • Explaining country differences - importance of the transboundary factor? • Revisiting the ‘environmental Kuznets curve’ based on the different factors responsible for emission changes • Improve graphic visualisation of the factors when they overlap

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