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Re-imagine’s Requisites : The Leadership 11 Tom Peters/04.01.2004

Re-imagine’s Requisites : The Leadership 11 Tom Peters/04.01.2004. Slides at … tompeters.com.

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Re-imagine’s Requisites : The Leadership 11 Tom Peters/04.01.2004

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  1. Re-imagine’s Requisites:The Leadership11Tom Peters/04.01.2004

  2. Slides at …tompeters.com

  3. “Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.”—Anthony Muh,head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”—General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army

  4. It is the foremost task—and responsibility—of our generation to re-imagine our enterprises, private and public. —from the Foreword, Re-imagine

  5. Context: The Change TsunamiJobs TechnologyGlobalizationWar, Warfighting & Security

  6. JobsNew TechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

  7. The Perfect (Jobs) StormOff-shoringWC AutomationReluctance to hire

  8. “In a global economy, the government cannot give anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of their own lives.”—WJC, from Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

  9. “14MILLION service jobs are in danger of being shipped overseas”—The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB study

  10. “Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate”—Headline/USA Today/02.04

  11. “One Singaporean workercosts as much as …3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03

  12. “The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter

  13. “There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.”—Carly Fiorina/ HP/ 01.08.2004

  14. “WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH THEMSELVES?”—Headline/ Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity rather than anxiety.”)

  15. “We erect walls to foreign trade and even discourage job-displacing innovations. But time and again through our history, we have discovered merely to preserve the comfortable features of the present, rather than reaching for new levels of prosperity, is a sure path to stagnation.”—Alan Greenspan/03.12.2004

  16. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

  17. <1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s2000: 10 years for paradigm shift21st century: 1000Xtech change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)Ray Kurzweil

  18. E.g. …Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in 3 years.Source: BW (01.28.02)

  19. “A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach

  20. “I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”Matt Ridley, Genome

  21. “In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

  22. “A California biotechnology company has put the entire sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing researchers to conduct a single experiment on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a human being.”—Page 3, Financial Times/10.03.2003

  23. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

  24. “Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.” —Financial Times (09.22.2003)

  25. “The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.”—Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004

  26. China Roars!

  27. 1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  28. 1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  29. 50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  30. Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home (vs. 61% in Japan)Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  31. 200 cities with >1,000,000 population.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  32. 2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

  33. “Going Global: Flush with billions in foreign reserves, China is embarking on a buying spree”—Cover/ Newsweek/ 03.01.04/ on China’s aggressive offshore acquisition activity (buying brands, technology, etc.)

  34. World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991)Source: New York Times/12.14.2003

  35. “America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the 21st century is unlikely to be the American Century.”—“When the Chinese Consumer Is King”/New York Times/12.14.2003.“The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time goes on.”—Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003

  36. In Store: International Equality, Intranational Inequality“The new organization of society implied by the triumph of individual autonomy and the true equalization of opportunity based upon merit will lead to very great rewards for merit and great individual autonomy. This will leave individuals far more responsible for themselves than they have been accustomed to being during the industrial period. It will also reduce the unearned advantage in living standards that has been enjoyed by residents of advanced industrial societies throughout the 20th century.”James Davidson & William Rees-Mogg,The Sovereign Individual

  37. Indian GDP/1990-2002: Ag, 34% to 21%; services, 40% to 56%Source: The Economist/02.04

  38. Level 5 (top) ranking/Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70 companies in world are from IndiaSource: Wired/02.04

  39. “Forget India, Let’s Go to Bulgaria”—Headline, BW/03.04, re SAP, BMW, Siemens et al. “near-shoring”

  40. JobsTechnologyGlobalizationWar, Warfighting &Security

  41. “This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more dangerous.”“We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested in us.”Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

  42. “The world’s new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization, instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering individual zealots or agitated tribes with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and dangerous in radically new ways.” —Lance Morrow/Evil

  43. “The new century risks being overrun by both anarchy and technology. The two great destroyers of history may reinforce each other. Both the spread of terrorism and that of weapons of mass destruction point to a world in which Western governments are losing control. The spread of the technology of mass destruction represents a potentially massive redistribution of power away from the advanced industrial (and democratic) states and toward smaller states that may be less stable and have less of a stake in an orderly world; or more dramatically still, it may represent a redistribution of power away from the state itself and towards individuals, that is to say terrorists or criminals. In the past to be damaging, an ideological movement had to be widespread to recruit enough support to take on authority. Henceforth, comparatively small groups will be able to do the sort of damage which before only state armies or major revolutionary movements could achieve. A few fanatics with a ‘dirty bomb’ or biological weapons will be able to cause death on a scale not previously envisaged. … Emancipation, diversity, global communication—all of the things that promise an age of riches and creativity—could also bring a nightmare in which states lose control of the means of violence and people lose control of their futures.”—Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

  44. “Before we can talk about the security requirements for today and tomorrow, we have to forget the security rules of yesterday.”—Robert Cooper,The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

  45. All Bets Are Off!

  46. “There will be more confusion in the business world in the next decadethan in any decade in history. And the current pace of change will only accelerate.”Steve Case

  47. “Let’s compete—by training the best workers, investing in R & D, erecting the best infrastructure and building an education system that graduates students who rank with the worlds best. Our goal is to be competitive with the best so we both win and create jobs.” —Craig Barrett (Time/03.01.04)

  48. The “Ownership Society” (GWB): “This is a bundle of proposals that treat workers as self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their own capital reserves, their retraining programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance.”—David Brooks/NYT/12.20.03

  49. Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30-Year Perspective1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.2. Disrespect for Tradition.3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do.4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior.”5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It.”6. Speed Demons.7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.)8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.)10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes.” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom.12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power.

  50. The Leadership11

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