COBECOS model simulations.

1. COBECOS model simulations. Dutch beam trawl fishery

2. Model • Two species: sole and plaice • One enforcement instrument: port inspections • One type of offence: over-quota catches

3. Private benefit function (1) • Penalty structure: Fine plus confiscation of over-quota catch

4. Social benefit function • Social benefits = private benefits excl payments of fines – shadow value fished biomass – enforcement costs

5. Probability function • Probability estimated as number of inspections devided by number of landings • This assumes: probability of detection when inspected is 1

6. Enforcement costs function • Enforcement costs estimated as a linear function of enforcement effort • Costs per inspection: € 965

7. Simulations • Effects of varying effort and penalty • Full compliance and optimal level of effort at current penalty • Full compliance and optimal level of penalty at current effort • Effects of alternative penalty structure on optimal effort, compliance and social benefits

8. Simulations (2) Current situation (2006): • Enforcement effort: 2028 port inspections per year (8% of landings controlled) • Penalty: confiscation of over quota catches plus fine €2200 • Private benefits of the beam trawl fleet: -10 mEUR • Total revenues of the beam trawl fleet: 160 mEUR Definitions • Non compliance (NC) = over quota catch as % of quota • Biomass effect = biomass next year as % of biomass in simulation year

9. Full compliance effort and optimal effort at current penalty

10. Effects of varying effort on the level of Non- compliance Minimum effort for full compliance: 2000 insp.

11. Effect of varying enforcement effort on private benefits Lowering effort from 2000 to 0 increases private benefits from -10 tot 50 mEUR

12. Effect of varying effort on social benefits Optimal effort: 1800 inspections per year

13. Effect of varying effort on private and social benefits NPB = SB – PB = payed fines - shadow value – enforcement costs

14. Effects of changing enforcement effort on biomass of plaice and sole Biomass effect = Biomass as % of biomass in previous year

15. Full compliance fine and optimal fine at current effort

16. Varying the complete penalty: Full compliance and optimal penalty at current effort Varying the complete penalty: for instance penalty of 90% of current penalty means that 90% of catches are confiscated and the fine is 90% of current fine

17. Effect of varying the penalty on compliance

18. Effect of varying the penalty on private and social benefits

19. Effect of varying the penalty on biomass

20. Impact of more efficient enforcement on optimal effort

21. Impact of an alternative penalty structure • Does a different penalty structure change the optimal level enforcement effort? • And does it change social benefits at the optimal solution? • Current penalty: fine (€2200) + confiscation of over-quota catch • Alternative penalty: fine proportional to over-quota catch

22. Private benefit function (2) • Penalty structure: Fine proportional to over-quota catch

23. Comparing penalty structures

24. Conclusions /Discussion • Different penalty structures may provide different incentives for fishermen and can lead to different private and social benefits • Partial analysis of: landings inspections are also used for other offences (undersized fish, logbook etc); optimal effort may be different when other offences taken into account

25. Discussion / Questions • Should the shadow value of discards be included in the social benefit function?? If discards are related to landings this would influence the optimizing process. • What does it mean when social benefits are negative? Is society better off without fishing? Have we included all social benefits?

26. The End

28. Increasing social benefits by lowering effort and increasing the fine

29. Higher penalties: minimum level of effort for f.c.

30. Higher penalties: optimal level of effort