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IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel

IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel. 2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader. Role of the Supreme Leader. - Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker - Sets red lines for negotiation team.

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IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel

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  1. IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel 2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader

  2. Role of the Supreme Leader - Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker - Sets red lines for negotiation team

  3. Chances of success for the current nuclear talks President Obama: 50 : 50 My estimate: 60 : 40

  4. 3 miscalculations by the supreme leader = 3 reasons for my optimism

  5. Miscalculation number 1 -He got 2009 wrong: The Iranian regime was on the verge of being overthrown.- Impact on regime legitimacy and nuclear program (internally)

  6. Miscalculation number 2: turning down Obama’s diplomatic overtures

  7. Miscalculation number 3: Iran could get through sanctionsIran earned $650 billion during Ahmadinejad’s presidency, $200 billion is missingBozorgmehr, Najmeh “Iran, Rogue Trader” Financial Times 05/06/2014- Lack of consensus and legitimacy to unite people around the flag

  8. Where is the IRGC in this story?

  9. Its important to get 2014 right

  10. The question of Ayatollah Khamenei’s legacy- another reason for a deal. Removing sanctions needed because of:- High inflation-Iran’s oil infrastructure- Draught

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