1 / 53

June 2007

PERU. June 2007. “Projected GDP growth of 7% until 2010”. Peru. 8,03. 6,4. 5,2. 5,2. 3,9. Sustainable economic growth with annual forecasted rate around 8%. 8. 6. GDP Growth (Annual variation %). 4. Developed. 2. World. 0. 80. 82. 84. 86. 88. 90. 92. 94. 96. 98. 00.

cate
Download Presentation

June 2007

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. PERU June 2007

  2. “Projected GDP growth of 7% until 2010”

  3. Peru 8,03 6,4 5,2 5,2 3,9 Sustainable economic growth with annual forecasted rate around 8% 8 6 GDP Growth (Annual variation %) 4 Developed 2 World 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Source: International Monetary Fund and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru.

  4. 23 750 0,7 22 000 0,6 17 336 0,5 17 000 0,4 12 000 41% 37% 0,3 35% 9 090 7 714 6 955 7 026 0,2 7 000 18% 0,1 10% 2 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Exports in millons US$" % Exports Growth (base 2000)" Annual Exports growth greater than 30% Accompanied by private investment growth (average annual % variation) 25.0 25.0 Private Investment grew Private Investment grew 20,1% in 2006* 20.0 20.0 Private Private Investment Investment 12 809 15.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 - - 5.0 5.0 - - 10.0 10.0 05 05 06 06 01 01 02 02 04 04 03 03 Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru. * Forecasted

  5. Rise in the commercial exchange (Millions of US$) Increase in the imports of capital goods ( Millions of US$) Capital goods for the Industry Transport Equipment Others Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru.

  6. Exchange rate in Latin America Inflation in Latin America (Annual var. %) (Index January 2001=100) Peru Peru Peru 205 Argentina Argentina Brasil 30 Brasil Brasil Chile 185 25 Chile Chile Colombia 165 Mexico Mexico Mexico 20 145 15 10 125 5 105 0 85 2000 2001 2004 2005 2002 2003 - 5 01 06 03 02 04 06 - - - - - - E A N A N M Source: Bloomberg and Central Reserve Bank of Peru . Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Brasil, Chile, Mexico and Argentina. ... in a framework of macroeconomic stability ...

  7. Peru is progressively reducing its fiscal deficit (overall balance; % of GDP) By increasing its central government tax revenues 2,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0.0 0,0 -0,5 -0,4 -1,0 -1,5 -1,1 -2,0 -1,7 -2,3 -2,5 -2,5 -3,0 -3,3 -3,5 2006 2007* 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source Central Reserve Bank of Peru. * Forecasted by the Ministry of Economics and Finance Source: SUNAT

  8. 17 275 18 000 0,5 0,45 16 000 14 097 0,4 12 681 14 000 0,35 12 000 10 194 9 598 0,3 8 613 10 000 8 180 22,5% 0,25 8 000 0,2 11,2% 6 000 24,4% 0,15 11,4% 6,2% 4 000 0,1 2 000 0,05 Net International Reserves (Milions of dollars) 5,3% 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Net International Reserves (in US$ Millions)" Annual Variation Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru. With increasing Net International The careful and responsible management of our Reserves that represent more than 12 economic program has allowed us to keep our months of imports country risk index among the lowest in the region. JP Morgan Index EMBI+** Updated 23 March, 2007 Source : Bloomberg

  9. Peru has concluded the negotiations for the Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) with the United States Free and preferential market access to: • United States • European Union • Mexico • Chile • Andean Community of Nations • MERCOSUR • Thailand* Trade Agreements under negotiation or consideration: Singapore EFTA Canada China European Union South Korea

  10. Peru offers a favorable legal framework for foreign investment • Non discriminatory treatment. • Irrestrictive access to most economic sectors. • No performance requirements. • Free transfer of capital. • Free competition. • Guarantee for Private Property. • Freedom to purchase stocks from locals. • Freedom to access internal and external credit. • Freedom to pay royalties. • Network of investment agreements and member of ICSID and MIGA Legal Framework: Constitutional provisions, “Law for the Promotion of Foreign Investment”, Legislative Decree N° 662, “Framework Law for Private Investment Growth”, Legislative Decree N° 757, “Law for the Promotion of Private Investment in Infrastructure and Public Service Works”, Approved by Supreme Decree N° 059-96-PCM

  11. 2004 2005 2006 GDP (var %) 4,8 6,4 8,03 Private Investment (var %) 9,1 13,9 20,1 Public Investment (var %) 5,7 12,2 13,0 Employment in companies with over 10 employees (var %) 2,7 4,5 7,3 Exports (var % in US$) 40,9 35,3 36,9 Imports of capital goods (var % in US $) 19,6 29,6 35,4 GDP of the construction sector (var %) 4,7 8,4 14,7 Tax Collection (var %) 13.6 14.3 27.8 Pensions Funds (var %) 17.5 25.5 41.3 IGBVL General Index of the Stock Exchange Market of Lima 52.3 29.4 168.3 (var %) Peru: some economic indicators Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru, National Institute of Statistic and Information and SUNAT.

  12. But institutions need to be reinforced and we still require a social reform

  13. Populism: a fatal attraction Source: The Economist.

  14. A dangerous candidate… …fortunately we didn’t choose him

  15. Composition of the Peruvian Congress

  16. Composition of the Peruvian Congress • Grupo Parlamentario Especial Demócrata (3) • Grupo Parlamentario Nacionalista (22) • Unión por el Perú (20) Source: Peruvian Congress.

  17. “No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable” - Adam Smith

  18. Poverty

  19. Malnutrition

  20. PERU

  21. A country with a great historic tradition;

  22. Home of the Inca Empire, a great civilization,

  23. Fotografía: Vera Lentz / Diario La República. It has experienced difficult circumstances of violent terrorist acts from which it is recovering

  24. Although its economy has grown thanks to the excellent metal prices,

  25. Peru is still a country where half of its population lives in poverty Foto: José Loo /Archivo “La República”

  26. and a fifth in extreme poverty Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente.

  27. Foto: Jhony Laurente /Archivo “La República” Without access to basic needs such as water supply

  28. Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente. electricity

  29. Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente. health services

  30. Foto: Christian Salazar /Archivo “La República” And where half of the population does not have an adequate job,

  31. Where malnutrition affects 25% of the child population

  32. And 50% of the children under five years of age is affected by anemia, Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente.

  33. However, things can change.

  34. Foto: Martin Pauca/Archivo “La República”

  35. We need investments that provide formal jobs, abiding by the laws,

  36. training

  37. And for that,

  38. We need markets

  39. The Free Trade Agreement with the United States demanded a great effort by the negotiators of both countries

  40. With it, both countries agree to make temporary and unilateral preferences, long term commitments for both sides.

  41. Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente. This would let Peruvians overcome poverty

  42. Fotografía: Marianna Mindreau Puente.

  43. With formal jobs

  44. With better employment conditions

More Related