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P erformance of the P hilippine E conomy

This report presents the performance of the Philippine economy in the fourth quarter and annual 2011. It includes growth rates, seasonal adjustments, confidence intervals, contributions to GDP growth, major industries, and other indicators supporting growth.

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P erformance of the P hilippine E conomy

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  1. Performance of the Philippine Economy Fourth Quarter / Annual 2011 Presented by ROMULO A. VIROLA Secretary General National Statistical Coordination Board 30 January 2012

  2. Economic Performance(Growth rates, in percent) 6.1 7.6 3.7 3.7 5.6 3.5 8.2 2.6 2.9 10.0 -0.9 3.9

  3. Seasonal Adjustment(Growth rates, in percent) 2.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.7

  4. Confidence Intervalsfor the True Growth Rateof the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  5. Per Capita GDP, GNI, HFCE(Growth rates, in percent) 4.1 1.8 5.6 1.8 3.6 1.6 6.1 0.7 2.9 4.8 1.4 4.1

  6. Major Industries(Growth rates, in percent) 4.1 -0.2 2.6 -2.5 6.5 2.5 11.6 1.9 6.4 5.9 7.2 5.0

  7. Seasonal AdjustmentMajor Industries (Growth rates, in percent) 0.1 2.4 -3.7 3.7 -4.3 1.4 1.3 2.6 1.4 -1.2 1.9 0.7

  8. Contributions to GDP Growth -0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 3.2 2.8 3.7 3.7

  9. Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry(Growth rates, in percent)

  10. Agriculture, Hunting, Fishery & Forestry(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

  11. 1.9 11.6 6.9 11.4 4.1 6.5 11.2 4.7 4.6 14.3 -6.4 9.4 9.9 -2.8 Industry(Growth rates, in percent) 6.5 2.5 -6.5 2.2 11.2 -6.2

  12. 2.5 -0.2 1.6 1.7 -0.6 Industry(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point) 0.6 0.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.1

  13. Manufacturing(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point) 1.05 1.03 Food Manufactures Furniture and Fixtures Chemical & Chemical Prods. Miscellaneous Manufactures 1.02 0.73 Beverage Industries 0.73 Electrical Machinery & Apparatus 0.02

  14. Manufacturing(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point) -0.33 -0.14 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus Textile Manufactures Wood, Bamboo,Cane & Rattan Articles Tobacco Manufactures Basic Metal Industries

  15. Manufacturing(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point) 2.02 1.39 Furniture and Fixtures Chemical & Chemical Prods. Food Manufactures Beverage Industries 0.80 0.75 Transport Equipment 0.55

  16. Manufacturing(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point) -2.80 -0.42 -0.27 -0.22 -0.20 Radio, TV & Comm. Equip. & Apparatus Basic Metal Industries Wood, Bamboo,Cane & Rattan Articles Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery Miscellaneous Manufactures

  17. 5.0 7.2 5.9 1.0 2.7 3.9 2.6 3.9 8.4 6.6 6.8 10.1 9.2 7.5 7.7 6.2 3.2 5.8 8.4 6.7 7.9 Services(Growth rates, in percent) 6.4 1.4 5.0 13.6 9.4 -0.8 8.7

  18. 5.9 2.8 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.4 0.7 Services(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

  19. IndicatorsSupporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2011

  20. IndicatorsSupporting Growth for 4th Quarter 2011

  21. Expenditure(Growth rates, in percent)

  22. Expenditure(Contribution to Growth, in percentage point)

  23. Construction(Growth rates, in percent) -4.1 17.5 -29.4 4.1 6.3 24.1 14.0 11.4 -13.7 49.4 24.6 1.4

  24. Top 5 Exports of Goods(In percent) 122.6 Automotive Electronics Petroleum Products 58.0 Bananas, incl. Plantains, Fresh or Dries 60.4 Sugar 736.8 Articles of Apparel & Clothing Accessories 9.3 Annual 2011 Growth Rates 0.76 0.33 0.28 0.22 0.13

  25. -20.5 Components/Devices (Semiconductors) Coconut Oil -26.5 Other Products Manufactured from Materials on Consignment Basis -18.3 Electronic Data Processing -14.4 Communication / Radar -48.6 Bottom 5 Exports of Goods(In percent) Annual 2011 Growth Rates -11.81 -1.39 -0.74 -0.23 -0.23

  26. Top 5 Exports of Goods(In percent) 2,633.24 Sugar Articles of Apparel & Clothing Accessories 7.5 Ignition Wiring Sets 23.0 Consumer Electronics 92.0 Bananas, incl. Plantains, Fresh or Dries 99.7 Q4 2011 Growth Rates 0.94 0.85 0.65 0.61 0.27

  27. -30.1 Components/Devices (Semiconductors) Automotive Electronics -48.8 Other Products Manufactured from Materials on Consignment Basis -34.3 Electronic Data Processing -39.0 Communication/Radar -45.1 Bottom 5 Exports of Goods(In percent) Q4 2011 Growth Rates -16.76 -4.03 -0.82 -0.28 -0.27

  28. Top 5 Imports of Goods(In percent) Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 16.3 Telecommunication Electrical Machinery Communication / Radar Artificial Resins 25.2 36.2 17.9 139.5 Annual 2011 Growth Rates 0.83 0.46 0.41 0.40 0.34

  29. -14.8 Components/Devices (Semiconductors) Cereals Transport Equipment Mineral Fuels Electronic Data Processing -5.5 -7.5 -45.3 -3.6 Bottom 5 Imports of Goods(In percent) Annual 2011 Growth Rates -4.25 -1.54 -0.49 -0.33 -0.23

  30. Top 5 Imports of Goods(In percent) Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 9.2 Artificial Resins Textile Yarns Cereals Telecommunication 31.5 10.2 15.9 15.8 Q4 2011 Growth Rates 0.62 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22

  31. -27.3 Components/Devices (Semiconductors) Transport Equipment Electronic Data Processing Electrical Machinery Metalliferous Ores & Metal Scraps -4.8 -56.3 -22.9 -6.8 Bottom 5 Imports of Goods(In percent) Q4 2011 Growth Rates -7.65 -1.50 -0.35 -0.30 -0.18

  32. Net Primary Income 2.5 3.6 8.8 -1.2 -21.7 -13.1 15.8 12.7 2.2 3.7 8.2 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -18.8 17.1 -2.8 -8.4 -18.8 -8.4 17.1 -2.8 2.9 -0.9 10.0 3.9

  33. GDP Scenarios for 2012 1. If the Government will build additional classrooms in 2012…

  34. GDP Scenarios for 2012

  35. Third Quarter 2011 Revisions(Growth Rates as of November 2011 and as of January 2012) 0.04 2.1 1.8 0.05 4.3 3.7 -0.01 -6.6 -6.1 0.31 0.8 -0.2 0.01 1.7 1.1 0.09 3.5 3.1 0.21 -8.5 -12.2 0.01 -0.7 -1.0 0.05 5.4 5.3 -0.02 4.6 4.9 0.00 3.8 3.8 -0.14 1.4 3.6 0.11 8.6 7.6 0.02 5.9 5.4 0.08 7.8 7.0 0.40 3.6 3.2 0.51 2.1 -3.4 1.6 -2.5 0.21 AHFF AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY FISHING INDUSTRY MINING & QUARRYING MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION ELEC., GAS & WATER SUPPLY SERVICES TRANS., STORAGE & COMM TRADE FIN. INTERMEDIATION RERBA PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION OTHER SERVICES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT N P I GROSS NATIONAL INCOME

  36. Announcements 1. Quarterly Revised/Rebased National Accounts Estimates now available on NSCB website The quarterly revised/rebased (2000=100) national accounts estimates for 1998-2010 can now be accessed on the NSCB website at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/2012/0113_qtrlygdpseries.asp For inquiries, please contact, Mr. Raymundo J. Talento at telephone numbered 895-2481, and email address, rj.talento@nscb.gov.ph.

  37. Announcements 2. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) expands three quarters in a row The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) continued its upward course after it weakened in the second quarter of 2011, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s economy. For the first quarter of 2012, the LEI posted 0.238 from a revised 0.158 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The latest LEI computations show the index in firmer positive territory auguring well for the domestic economy to start off the year of the dragon.

  38. Announcements 3. NSCB holds second series of Consultative Workshops on PSDP 2011-2017 The NSCB conducted the second of a series of consultative workshops on the formulation of the Philippine Statistical Development Program (PSDP), 2011- 2017 on January 16-19 and 25, 2012 at the Tiara Oriental Hotel in Makati City. The first workshop on PSS-wide concerns was conducted last 12 December 2011.

  39. Announcements 3. NSCB holds second series of Consultative Workshops on PSDP 2011-2017 con’t The consultative workshops held this month, aim to present the identified issues/ concerns in the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) and the proposed statistical programs and activities to address the sectoral concerns in the PSDP, particularly on economic and social chapters, and to solicit the comments and recommendations of invited discussants and various stakeholders in the PSS. The last of the workshop series will be on 3 February 2012 at the Tiara Oriental Hotel where the chapters on Governance, Peace and Security and Transport Statistics will be presented. Consultative workshops were also conducted in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao in August 2011. For further inquiries, please contact the PSDP Secretariat at telefax numbered 895-2436 and 890-9404 or email addresses mgb.tejada@nscb.gov.ph and pal.rivera@nscb.gov.ph.

  40. Announcements 4. NSCB to launch Philippine Business Cycle Clock The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) will launch the Philippine Business Cycle Clock (BCC) in March 2012. The Philippine BCC is an online graphic representation of selected indicators displayed like a clock to track cyclical movements of economic indicators, based on the four conjunctural phases namely: expansion, downturn, slowdown and recovery. The visual presentation will help users understand the economic up and downswings over time, know how some economic indicators interact with the business cycle and allow users perceive the leading, coincident or lagging behavior of indicators.

  41. Announcements 4. NSCB to launch Philippine Business Cycle Clock con’t The BCC is a dynamic tool which can be used to analyze the cycle of the various Philippine Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) such as terms of trade index, electric energy consumption, consumer price index, among others, vis-a-vis the non-agriculture gross value added (GVA). The BCC concept was created and developed by Statistics Netherlands. As of December 2011, countries/organizations using the BCC include the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Eurostat, Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Korea (KOSTAT), and the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. In March 2012, the Philippines will be the sixth to join the roster of countries/organizations which are disseminating a BCC.

  42. Announcements 5. NSCB disseminates “sexy statistics” The National Statistical Coordination Board started disseminating exciting and interesting statistics/indicators on 25 January 2012 through a new section called "Sexy Statistics" on the NSCB website. The new section presents the special tabulations and computations done by the NSCB Technical Staff to present statistics on current issues and responses to various data requests of stakeholders. It can be accessed at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/. For the first edition, the section featured an article entitled “ Across ASEAN Countries, a Minimum Wage Earner in 2010 Can Buy the Most Rice in Thailand and in the Philippines”. For further inquiries, please contact the National Statistical Information Center (NSIC) at telephone numbered 890-8456 or email address info@nscb.gov.ph

  43. visit: www. nscb.gov.ph Thank you very much.

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