Foreign investment analysis
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 86


  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General


Download Presentation


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript

Foreign investment analysis






Net present value npv

Net Present Value (NPV)

  • NPV is the present value of future cash flows minus the initial net cash outlay for the project discounted at the project’s cost of capital.

  • Assuming the goal of maximizing shareholder wealth, any project with a positive NPV that cannot be delayed or can be undone (at low or no cost) and that doesn’t preempt a more attractive project should be pursued.

  • Generally, the source of financing is irrelevant to the investment decision.

International Financing

Upside to npv

Upside to NPV

  • Evaluates investment in the same manner as a company’s shareholders.

    • Focuses in on cash and not accounting profits

    • Emphasizes the opportunity cost of the money invested.

International Financing

Downside to npv

Downside to NPV

  • The project with highest NPV may also consume the most resources.

  • Therefore, you should look to the best combination of positive NPV projects that yield the highest NPV given your investment constraints.

International Financing

Difficulties with npv

Difficulties with NPV

  • Estimating cash flows.

    • The cost of the project

    • The cash inflows during the life of the project (especially hard where there are relevant spillovers -- cannibalization or sales creation)

    • The terminal or ending values of the project.

International Financing



  • When a new product takes sales from a company’s existing products.

    • Sometimes difficult to assess the magnitude of cannibalization that will occur.

International Financing

Sales creation

Sales Creation

  • The opposite of cannibalization.

    • Same problem: Difficult to estimate.

International Financing

Opportunity cost

Opportunity Cost

  • Project costs must include the true economic cost of any resource required for the project.

    • Example: IBM in Brazil

  • Transfer Pricing

    • The prices at which goods and services are traded internally within an organization.

    • Example: Ford motors

International Financing



  • Ignore it and you’ll lose.

  • Key question to be asked!

    • What will happen if we don’t make this investment?

  • The rule is simple:

    • If you must be the victim of a cannibal, make sure the cannibal is a member of your family.

International Financing

Intangible benefits

Intangible Benefits

  • Difficult to measure.

  • Efficiency

  • Brand Name Presence In Foreign Country

  • Improved Supplier Networks

International Financing

Capital budgeting for the multinational corporation


Multinational corporations have more opportunities but also face many problems that domestic businesses do not have to worry about

Why fdi over portfolio or intermediated investment

Why FDI over Portfolio or Intermediated Investment?

For FDI to be considered, the foreign investor must view:r*FDI > r*PI,II

From the perspective of the host country, it must be the case that:r*FDI > r*local investment

But these inequalities are the same, since local investors will equate:r*PI, II = r*local investment

International Financing

What makes the return on fdi greater than that on pi or ii

What Makes the Return on FDI greater than that on PI or II?

In other words, how do foreign corporations outperform domestic ones on the latter’s home turf?

Especially considering the foreign firm must incur additional costs of travel, communication, and monitoring...

...and the foreign firm must contend with unfamiliar legal, distributing, and accounting systems.

Thus, an understanding of FDI must identify what ‘overcompensating advantage’ a foreign firm has over domestic competition, making returns to FDI greater than those to Portfolio or Intermediated Investment.

International Financing

What explains locational patterns of fdi

What Explains Locational Patterns of FDI?

What are some reasons certain countries are chosen over others as targets for multinational investment?

International Financing

What explains locational patterns of fdi1

What Explains Locational Patterns of FDI?

1. Labor costs

2. Access to resources

3. Government policies

4. Expanding markets/transport costs

5. Currency values

6. Tax advantages

7. Investment climates

International Financing

What explains locational patterns of fdi2

What Explains Locational Patterns of FDI?

1. Labor costs (home or foreign? make or buy? Where?)

2. Access to resources (where?)

3. Government policies (where?)

4. Expanding markets/transport costs (how?)

5. Currency values (home or foreign? What?)

6. Tax advantages (home or foreign? Where? What?)

7. Investment climates (where?)

International Financing

Growth options

Growth Options

  • Growth Options vary in value depending on:

    • The length of time the project can be deferred. The more time increases odds of a positive turn of events.

    • The risk of the project. The riskier the project the more valuable the option is.

    • The level of interest rates. High interest rates generally raise the value of options because of the reduction of the present value of the cash outlay needed to exercise an option.

    • The proprietary nature of the option. The greater the percentage of ownership the more valuable to the owner.

International Financing

Issues in foreign investment analysis

Issues in Foreign Investment Analysis

  • Should cash flows be measured from the viewpoint of the subsidiary or that of the parent?

  • Should the additional economic and political risks that are uniquely foreign be reflected in cash-flow or discount-rate adjustments?

International Financing

Three stage approach

Three Stage Approach

  • Project cash flows are computed either from the subsidiary’s standpoint and PV converted to home currency at spot rate or future values are converted to home currency and PV calculated from the parent’s standpoint.

  • The indirect benefits and costs that the investment confers on the rest of the system are accounted for.

  • Headquarters determines amounts, timing, and form of actual transfers and tax payments.

International Financing

First stage of this approach

First Stage of this Approach

  • Decentralized assessment: Project cash flows are computed from the subsidiary’s standpoint (using the subsidiary’s project-specific COC) to PV, which is converted to home currency at spot rate

  • Centralized assessment: Future project cash flows are converted to home currency at the expected exchange rates and PV calculated from the parent’s standpoint (using the parent’s project-specific COC).

International Financing

Political economic risk analysis

Political & Economic Risk Analysis

  • The three main methods for incorporating additional Political and Economic Risk

    • Shortening the minimum payback period.

    • Raising the required rate of return

      (Note: Our former colleague, Professor Marc Choate, claimed there is some curse that befalls all managers who choose this option.)

    • Adjusting cash flows to reflect the specific impact of a given risk.

International Financing

Political risk

Political Risk

  • You face risks you don’t even know about.

  • Expropriation – Where a government seizes your assets.

  • Blocked Funds – Where a government changes exchange controls.

International Financing

Cost of capital

Cost of capital

the minimum (required) rate of return necessary

to induce investors to buy or hold the firm’s stock.

Is it different where foreign investments are concerned

Is it different where foreign investments are concerned?

  • Cost of capital needed to calculate NPV!

  • Foreign Investments:

    • Opportunity for further diversification!

    • But also further risk exposure – country specific risk.

    • The question is: how do we measure country specific risk?

International Financing



  • CAPM Assumes:

    COCi = Ri + Bi (RM-Ri)

    • Where Bi = Cov(COCi,RM)/var[RM ]


      All the traditional – risk adverse investors, equilibrium, perfect markets etc. But in this context the most important is:

International Financing

All unsystematic risk is diversifiable

All unsystematic risk is diversifiable

  • Risk is measured by the standard deviation and we assume the following decomposition is possible:

  • Risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk

Variations not explained by variations in the market – e.g. industry specific risk.

That this is diversifiable means CAPM assumes it is zero

Variations explained by variations in the market

International Financing

How do you diversify

How do you diversify?

There are two ways:

1) increase the variety of assets in a portfolio

2) choose the right mix or variety of assets !!

International Financing

How can overall risk change

How can overall risk change?

  • Example:

  • If the number of investment opportunities increases -> increased diversification opportunities ->

    • Expected returns and project specific risk areunchanged, but

    • -> less risky in CAPM terminology

International Financing



  • The beta we need is the project beta reflecting the risk of the project not the beta of the company reflecting the risk of the entire firm.

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis


  • Is the discount factor! It is calculated as a weighted average of cost of debt and the cost of equity using the ratios of the market values of debt and equity to the total firm value as weights.

  • -> This is how we evaluate domestic investments!!! -> We now expand this to evaluating foreign investments as well.

International Financing

Discount rate for foreign investments

Discount rate for foreign investments

First a little intuition:

Intuition using s p as the market pf

Intuition using S&P as the market PF

The two effects:

->Naturally the correlation between returns on foreign investments and S&P are less than for domestic investments -> suggesting lower B s

-> Project specific risk might also vary between countries -> can have both a positive and negative effect. However often country specific risk is unsystematic risk -> diversifiable!!

International Financing

Important assumption

Important assumption:

  • MNCs have better diversification opportunities than their shareholders. Otherwise the share holders could just as well do the diversification.

  • Supported empirically by investors’ home bias!

International Financing

Estimating foreign project discount rates

Estimating foreign project discount rates.

Key: Historical data to estimate the betas are not available.

-> We need some kind of proxy firm.

The key questions about the proxy firm

The key questions about the proxy firm!

1) Should the proxy firm be domestic or foreign?

2) What should be used for the market portfolio

3) which market should the premium be based on?

4) How do we measure country risk?

International Financing

3 methods for estimating proxy betas

3 methods for estimating proxy betas

1) Use a local company beta.

  • Problem: Such a company (industry) might not exist and at least not with the necessary historic data.

  • However, this is the optimal choice, if it is possible.

International Financing

2 using an adjusted domestic proxy

2) Using an adjusted domestic proxy


->Industries might have higher correlation than markets

->Should there be an additional risk premium for country risk….?

International Financing

Country specific risk

Country specific risk

International Financing

3 the global capm

3) The Global CAPM

  • Instead of using foreign/domestic market portfolios use a global market portfolio!

  • This is a good choice if you look at the world as one market!

  • The problem is that you assume implicitly that stock holders hold well diversified portfolios not just domestic but global. This is not empirically supported.

  • If GCAPM is used for foreign investments it should also be used for domestic investments.

International Financing

Which risk premium to use

Which risk premium to use!

  • The US market has the best data!

International Financing

The final model

The final model.

Ri = Rf + risk premium ·Bi + (add. premium)


Constructed from historic data – assumed constant in the long run

Many Suggestions. e.g. the difference between the domestic and the foreign interest rate.

  • Blocal proxy

  • Rlocal proxy · Bcountry


International Financing

A comment on the additional premium

A comment on the additional premium

  • Instead of adjusting the discount rate, treat the investment like a real option: add more scenarios, which will change the expected cash flows!

International Financing

Cost of debt

Cost of Debt

Cost of debt basic concepts

Cost of Debt - Basic Concepts

  • Debt Traded in the Market

    Price = Ct/(1+Kd)t

  • Debt Not traded in the Market

    YTM of US treasury + Prevailing spread

International Financing

Cost of debt international scenario

Cost of Debt - International Scenario

  • Use of Sovereign Risk Spreads

    Cost of Debt = Treasury bond yield +

    the country risk premium

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

International Financing

Capital structure of multinational corporation and its foreign affiliates

Capital Structure of Multinational Corporation and its Foreign Affiliates

Capital structure domestic theories

Capital Structure - Domestic Theories

  • M&M Corporate Tax Model

  • Agency Cost of Under Investment

  • Static Trade off Model

  • Types of Companies

  • Jensen theory of Agency cost of Free Cash Flows

  • Theory of Managerial behavior, agency cost and capital structure

  • Pecking Order Theory

International Financing

World capital structure

World Capital Structure

Capital structure of foreign affiliates

Capital Structure of Foreign Affiliates

  • Conform to the capital structure of Parent Company.

  • Reflect the capitalization norm of each foreign country

  • Vary to take advantage of opportunities to minimize the MNC’s cost of capital.

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

  • Political Risk Management

  • Currency Risk Management

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

  • Leverage and foreign tax credits

  • Leasing and Tax credits

International Financing

Joint ventures

Joint Ventures

International Financing

International financing and national financial markets


Financial markets are increasingly global

Old kinds of debt are being made into new kinds of securities

The distinction between commercial and investment banks is breaking down

Globalization of financial firms

Globalization of Financial Firms

  • 1960s: Banks develop global branch networks for loans, payments, clearings, and foreign exchange trading

  • 1970-80s: Securities firms operate abroad, first in London with Eurobond market, then other markets, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore; foreign commercial banks and securities houses expand to the United States

  • Now: To thrive in any leading financial markets, a firm must have a significant presence in them all

International Financing



Twenty years ago, commercial banks handle most short- and medium-term financing

Now corporations borrow low-cost funds directly from lenders, primarily in the form of commercial paper marketed by investment banks rather than by commercial banks

International Financing

Diminished distinctions among kinds of financial firms

Diminished Distinctions among Kinds of Financial Firms

  • Firms want to be in all profitable product lines and have flexibility to shift to more promising ones

  • In US & Japan, law separates commercial banking from investment banking

  • Commercial banking less profitable than some kinds of investment banking -- commercial banks have circumvent prohibition

  • Investment banks encroach upon commercial banks’ traditional areas of activity -- money market mutual funds drew billions of dollars from banks in the late 1970s and early 1980s

International Financing

Financing practices among countries have consequences

Differences in the role of banks and permissible banking activities

» Differences in national financing patterns

Financing Practices among Countries Have Consequences

» Differences in profitability and growth

among national firms

International Financing

Convergence of financing practices among countries

Convergencein the role of banks and permissible banking activities

» Convergencein national financing patterns

Convergence of Financing Practices among Countries

» Convergencein profitability and growth

among national firms

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

What are the basic differences between the financing practices of US and Japanese firms? What might account for these differences?

Answer. The two main differences are: 1. Source of financing -- internal versus external; 2. Composition of external finance -- bank borrowing versus debt securities.

Historically, U.S. companies have received 60% to 70% of funds from internal sources. Japanese companies have relied heavily on external funds to finance a strategy of of massive investment and pursuit of market share -- often at the expense of profitability.

Japanese firms also rely heavily on bank borrowing, while U.S. firms raise more money directly from financial markets by the sale of securities.

International Financing

What is securitization

What is securitization?

Answer. Instead of raising money in the form of non-marketable loans, securitization means selling negotiable instruments directly to savers

. By contrast, financial intermediation involves the use of financial institutions such as banks and thrifts to bring together borrowers and savers. These institutions make a large number of loans and fund them by issuing liabilities (e.g., deposits) in their own name.

Securitization reflects reductions in the cost of using financial markets and increases in the cost of bank borrowing.

International Financing

Why is bank lending on the decline worldwide

Why is bank lending on the decline worldwide?


  • Banks face higher capital requirements and, therefore, costs.

  • Banks have responded to greater interest rate volatility by cutting back on loan commitments, thereby reducing the value of a banking relationship to corporate customers.

  • Banks have moved away from relationship lending making them more vulnerable to adverse selection.

International Financing

How have banks responded to their loss of market share

How have banks responded to their loss of market share?

Answer. Banks have responded to their loss of market share by eliminating unprofitable aspects of the traditional lending (retention of loans on the balance sheet) while retaining the element crucial to the borrower (access to funds). Thus origination of loans for sale has emerged as a new business line.

Banks have also expanded nonlending services that produce fee income and are not (yet) covered by capital requirements: underwriting commercial paper, foreign exchange trading, arranging swaps, advising on mergers and acquisitions, and issuing letters of credit and debt guarantees (credit enhancement).

International Financing

What is meant by the globalization of financial markets

What is meant by the globalization of financial markets?

Answer. Globalization integrates national financial markets across space and time, thereby eliminating barriers that separate domestic from foreign capital markets. The process is driven by investors seeking the best combination of risk and return for their money and by companies trying to get it for the best terms and conditions.

It will be complete only when the price of risk and the time value of money are identical worldwide.

Markets for US government securities and certain stocks, foreign exchange trading, inter-bank borrowing and lending -- to cite a few examples -- already operate around the clock and the world.

International Financing

How has technology affected the process of globalization

How has technology affected the process of globalization?

Answer. Improvements in such areas as data manipulation and telecommunications have greatly reduced the costs of gathering, processing, and acting on information from anywhere in the world.

This has facilitated the process of arbitrage across financial markets, which has brought prices of securities with similar risks and returns closer in line with each other and turned the world into a much more interconnected market.

International Financing

How has globalization affected government regulation of national capital markets

How has globalization affected government regulation of national capital markets?

Answer. National systems of supervision and regulation were not designed for a worldwide marketplace. Governments that restrict domestic financial institutions will often provide foreign firms with a competitive advantage. Similarly, restrictions on domestic financial markets will often drive business overseas. The net result will be increased pressure for loosening controls on domestic financial institutions and markets to enable them to be more competitive, which will tend to speed the process of financial deregulation (with respect to entry and pricing and choice of business partners).

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

Bond owners and traders today have an enormous collective influence over a nation's economic policies, why?

Answer. Bond owners and traders influence national access to capital markets. To the extent that a nation requires this access (and most do, at least at some point in time), this exerts a strong disciplinary effect on the types of economic policies a nation is likely to select. A policy perceived as being economically harmful will restrict the nation's access to capital on favorable terms.

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

Why are large multinational corporations located in small countries (Sweden, Holland, Switzerland) interested in developing a global investor base?

Answer. Large MNCS located in these small countries need to raise substantial amounts of capital to grow. Often, the domestic market cannot provide this amount of capital on reasonable terms (portfolio theory). Borrowing abroad means a lower cost of capital for these MNCs (and hence a higher market value).

In addition, developing a global investor base gives them access to capital when events (most likely political) restrict the ability of MNCs to raise capital locally regardless of price.

International Financing

Why are many u s multinationals listing their shares on foreign stock exchanges

Why are many U.S. multinationals listing their shares on foreign stock exchanges?


  • Diversification of equity funding risk: A pool of funds from a diversified shareholder base insulates a company from the vagaries of a single national market.

  • Increase stock price: By selling stock overseas, a company can expand its investor base, thereby lowering its cost of equity capital and increasing its market value.

  • Boost foreign sales: An international stock offering can spread the firm's name in local markets and increase its sales overseas.

International Financing

Foreign investment analysis

Many governments withhold income taxes on interest payments, returning them to foreigners where they have double-taxation treaties with the foreigners’ governments. Often, however, repayment is delayed. What are the likely consequences of eliminating withholding from interest payments to foreigners under such circumstances?

Answer. This actually happened in Portugal. The OECD reports that Portugal discovered that charging foreigners withholding tax on interest payments due on government bonds deterred them from buying its debt rather than bringing in more revenues, thereby raising its cost of capital.

The fact that foreign investors had to wait so long to claim back a portion of the tax led them to price Portugal's debt as if they had to pay all of the tax.

Moreover, because bond markets that charge foreigners withholding tax tend to be less liquid, investors demanded an extra premium. The higher interest rates that Portugal had to pay more than offset its income from withholding tax.

After scrapping its withholding tax, the yield spread between 10-year Portuguese government bonds and corresponding German government bonds narrowed significantly.

International Financing

The euromarkets






International Financing

The eurocurrency markets


The most important international financial markets today

A.The Eurocurrency Market

  • Created after WWII

  • Composed of eurobanks who accept/maintain deposits of foreign currency

  • Dominant currency: US$

International Financing

Growth of eurodollar market

Growth of Eurodollar Market

Caused by restrictive US government policies, especially

1.Reserve requirements on deposits

2.Special charges and taxes

3.Required concessionary loan rates

4.Interest rate ceilings

5.Rules which restrict bank competition.

International Financing

Eurodollar creation involves

Eurodollar Creation involves

1.A chain of deposits

2.Changing control/usage of deposit

International Financing

Eurocurrency loans

Eurocurrency loans

a.Use London Interbank Offer Rate [LIBOR] as basic rate

b.Six month rollovers

c.Risk indicator: size of margin between cost and rate charged.

International Financing

Multi currency clauses

Multi-currency Clauses

a. Clause gives borrower option to switch currency of loan at rollover.

b. Reduces exchange rate risk

International Financing

Domestic vs eurocurrency markets

Domestic vs. Eurocurrency Markets

  • Closely linked rates by arbitrage

  • Euro rates: tend to lower lending, higher deposit

International Financing

Definition of eurobonds


Bonds sold outside the country of currency denomination.

1. Recent Substantial Market Growth -- due to use of swaps

[a financial instrument which gives 2 parties the right to exchange streams of income over time.]

2. Links to Domestic Bond Markets -- arbitrage has

eliminated interest rate differential.

3. Placement underwritten by syndicates of banks

4. Currency Denomination

a. Most often US$

b. “Cocktails” allow a basket of currencies

International Financing

Eurobonds cont


5. Eurobond Secondary Market -- result of rising investor demand

6. Retirement

a. sinking fund usually

b. some carry call provisions

7. Ratings

a. According to relative risk

b. Rating Agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor

8. Rationale For Market Existence

a. Eurobonds avoid government regulation

b. May fade as financial markets deregulate

International Financing

Eurobond vs eurocurrency loans

Eurobond vs. Eurocurrency Loans

1. Five Differences

a. Eurocurrency loans use variable rates

b. Loans have shorter maturities

c. Bonds have greater volume

d. Loans have greater flexibility

e. Loans obtained faster

International Financing

Note issuance facility nif

Note Issuance Facility (NIF)

1. Low-cost substitute for loan

2. Allows borrowers to issue own notes

3. Placed/distributed by banks

International Financing

Nifs vs eurobonds

NIFs vs. Eurobonds

1. Differences:

a. Notes draw down credit as needed

b. Notes let owners determine timing

c. Notes must be held to maturity

International Financing

Short term financing


A.Euronotes and Euro-Commercial Paper

1. Euronotes

» Unsecured short-term debt securities denominated in US$ and issued by corporations and governments.

2. Euro-commercial paper(CP)

» Euronotes not bank underwritten

B.U.S. vs. Euro-CPs

1. Average maturity longer (2x) for Euro-CPs

2. Secondary market for Euro; not U.S. CPs.

3. Smaller fraction of Euro use credit rating services to rate.

International Financing

  • Login