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Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 8/15/07

Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 8/15/07. By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A. For presentation at the Midwest-Great Plains Outlook Conference 8/15/07.

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Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 8/15/07

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  1. Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-098/15/07 By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A. For presentation at the Midwest-Great Plains Outlook Conference 8/15/07

  2. 41 countries encourage biofuelsMajor Countries with Ethanol Fuels • U.S. • Brazil • Canada • China • EU-27 • Thailand • Countries considering ethanol fuels • South Africa • Ukraine • Japan

  3. Major Countries with Ethanol Fuels • U.S. – likely production of 14-15 bil. gal. from corn in 3.5-5 years • Brazil –89 new ethanol plants to be built, 2007-2011 • 2% biodiesel mandate by 2008 & 5% by 2013 • China – 3 corn-based plants, emphasis shifting to other feedstocks • EU-27 – 5.75% of motor fuel to be renewable by 2010, 10% in 2020 • Canada – 5% ethanol mandate by 2010, 2% biodiesel by 2012 • Thailand – ethanol from sugar, mantiac Biodiesel– Competition for crop land

  4. International Impacts • U.S. ethanol plants under construction to use 58 mil. tons of corn (doubling use) • 3.5 times the volume of Japan imports of U.S. corn • 130% of 2006 EU corn crop • 70% of global corn exports • Other countries are expanding ethanol & biodiesel • Strong negative impacts on animal ag. • Higher food costs ahead • Major risk-management challenges in Ag. • & bioenergy

  5. USDA 07-08

  6. '07-08 Ethanol Proj. Other Constr'n

  7. 72 Potential Iowa Plants 11 Just across IA Borders Capacity: 159% of 2006 Crop Iowa Corn Processing Plants, Current & Planned, 7/25/07

  8. Needed Yld. @ 2007 Acres June 2007 334 bu./A. @ ethanol plant rated cap. ? New trend?

  9. Total 11,693 mil. Bu.

  10. How Much More U.S. Construction to Reach 5.5 Bil. Bu. Corn for Ethanol? • Operating plants: • -- 2.15 Bil. Bu. • Plants under construction: • -- 2.0 Bil. Bu. • Plants soon to build: • -- 0.2 Bil. Bu. • Total: 4.35 Bil. Bu. • Capacity needed: • 1.15 Bil. Bu. • (About 32 plants @ 100 mil. gal./yr.)

  11. A.

  12. Ethanol Blending Wall?(Are we there yet?) • Considerable incentive to increase blending capacity • What happens when avg. Midwest blend is 10%? • More shipments to coasts – at higher cost

  13. $ per Gal.

  14. State Avg. Ethanol Rack Prices

  15. 5.9 Bil. Bu. Corn for ethanol by 2012

  16. Will increased South American exports more than offset U.S. decline?

  17. 2012

  18. 2012

  19. Potential area to be cleared for crops

  20. 160.4 bu/A 149.1 148 142.2

  21. August 2007 Crop Production

  22. *

  23. 2007 2007

  24. Model Forecast: $3.11/bu. U.S. ’07-08 & $3.20 for ’08-09

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