Chapter Twenty-one
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Chapter Twenty-one . Managing Risk on the Balance Sheet I: Credit Risk. Credit Risk Management.

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Chapter Twenty-one

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Chapter twenty one

Chapter Twenty-one

Managing Risk on the Balance Sheet I:

Credit Risk


Credit risk management

Credit Risk Management

  • An FI’s ability to evaluate information and control and monitor borrowers allows them to transform financial claims of household savers efficiently into claims issued to corporations, individuals, and governments

  • An FI accepts credit risk in exchange for a fair return sufficient to cover the cost of funding (e.g., covering the cost of borrowing, or issuing deposits)


Credit analysis

Credit Analysis

  • Real Estate Lending

    • residential mortgage loan applications are among the most standardized of all credit applications

    • Two considerations

      • the applicant’s ability and willingness to make timely interest and principal repayments

      • the value of the borrower’s collateral

    • GDS (gross debt service) ratio - gross debt service ratio calculated as total accommodation expenses (mortgage, lease, condominium, management fees, real estate taxes, etc.) divided by gross income

    • TDS (total debt service) ratio - total debt ratio calculated as total accommodation expenses plus all other debt service payments divided by gross income


Credit scoring

Credit Scoring

  • Credit scoring system

    • a mathematical model that uses observed loan applicant’s characteristics to calculate a score that represents the applicant’s probability of default

  • Perfecting collateral

    • ensuring that collateral used to secure a loan is free and clear to the lender should the borrower default

  • Foreclosure

    • taking possession of the mortgaged property to satisfy a defaulting borrower’s indebtedness

  • Power of sale

    • taking the proceedings of the forced sale of property to satisfy the indebtedness


Credit scoring1

Credit Scoring

  • Consumer (individual) and Small-business lending

    • techniques for scoring consumer loans very similar to mortgage loan credit analysis but more emphasis placed on personal characteristics such as annual gross income and the TDS score

    • small-business loans more complicated and has required FIs to build more sophisticated scoring models combining computer-based financial analysis of borrower financial statements with behavioral analysis of the owner


Mid market commercial and industrial lending

Mid-Market Commercial and Industrial Lending

  • Definition of Mid-market

    • offered some of the most profitable opportunities for credit-granting FIs

    • sales revenues from $5 million to $100 million/year

    • recognizable corporate structure

    • do not have ready access to deep and liquid capital markets

  • Credit Analysis - Five C’s of Credit

    • customer’s character, capacity, collateral, conditions, and capital

  • Cash Flow Analysis

    • provides relevant information about the applicant’s cash receipts and disbursements


Ratio analysis

Ratio Analysis

  • Historical audited financial statements and projections of future needs

  • Calculation of financial ratios in financial statement analysis

  • Relative ratios offer information about how a business is changing over time

  • Particularly informative when they differ either from an industry average or from the applicant’s own past history


Calculating ratios

Calculating Ratios

Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio = Current assets

Current liabilities

Quick ratio = Cash + Cash equivalents + Receivables

Current liabilities

(continued)


Chapter twenty one

Asset Management Ratios

Number of days sales = Accounts receivable x 365

in receivables Credit sales

Number of days = Inventory x 365

in inventory Cost of goods sold

Sales to working = Sales

capital Working capital

Sales to fixed = Sales

assets Fixed assets

Sales to total assets = Sales

Total assets

(continued)


Chapter twenty one

Debt and Solvency ratios

Debt-asset ratio = Short-term liabilities + Long-term liabilities

Total assets

Fixed-charge = Earnings available to meet fixed charges

coverage ratio Fixed charges

Cash-flow-to-debt = EBIT + Depreciation

ratio Debt

where EBIT represents earnings before interest and taxes

(continued)


Chapter twenty one

Profitability Ratios

Gross margin = Gross profit Income to Sales = EBIT

Sales Sales

Operating profit margin = Operating profit

Sales

Return on assets = EAT

Average total assets

Return on equity = EAT Dividend payout = Dividends

Total equity EAT

where EAT represents earnings after taxes, or net income


Common size analysis and after the loan

Common Size Analysis and After the Loan

  • Analyst can divide all income statement amounts by total sales revenue and all balance sheet amounts by total assets

  • Year to year growth rates give useful ratios for identifying trends

  • Loan covenants reduce risk to lender

  • Conditions precedent

    • those conditions specified in the credit agreement or terms sheet for a credit that must be fulfilled before drawings are permitted


Large commercial and industrial lending

Large Commercial and Industrial Lending

  • Very attractive to FIs because transactions are often large enough make them very profitable even though spreads and fees are small in percentage

  • FIs act as broker, dealer, and adviser in credit management

  • The standard methods of analysis used for mid-market corporates applied to large corporate clients but with additional complications

  • Financial ratios such as the debt-equity ratio are usually key factors for corporate debt


Altman s z score

Altman’s Z-Score

Used for analyzing publicly traded manufacturing firms

Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0X5

where

Z = an overall measure of the borrower’s default risk

X1 = Working capital/Total assets ratio

X2 = Retained earnings/Total assets ratio

X3 = Earnings before interest and taxes/Total assets ratio

X4 = Market value of equity/Book value of long-term debt ratio

X5 = Sales/Total assets ratio

The higher the value of Z, the lower the default risk


The kmv model

The KMV Model

  • Banks can use the theory of option pricing to assess the credit risk of a corporate borrower

  • The probability of default is positively related to:

    • the volatility of the firm’s stock

    • the firm’s leverage

  • A model developed by KMV corporation is being widely used by banks for this purpose


Calculating the return on a loan

Calculating the Return on a Loan

  • A number of factors impact the promised return that an FI achieves on any given dollar loan

    • the interest rate on the loan

    • any fees relating to the loan

    • the credit risk premium on the loan

    • the collateral backing the loan

    • other nonprice terms (such as compensating balances and reserve requirements)


Return on assets roa

Return on Assets (ROA)

1 + k = 1 + f + (L + m)

1 - (b(1 - R))

where

k = the contractually promised gross return on the loan

f = direct fees, such as loan origination fee

L = base lending rate

m = risk premium

b = compensating balances

R = reserve requirement charge


Risk adjusted return on capital raroc

Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC)

  • Rather than evaluating the actual or promised annual cash flow on a loan as a percentage of the amount lent (ROA), the lending officer balances the loan’s expected income against the loan’s expected risk

  • RAROC = One-year income on a loan/Loan (asset risk or capital at risk


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