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Shanghai TMP 2004

Shanghai TMP 2004 . Top Management Program Shanghai Prof. F.. M. Macaranas May 2004. I. Introduction to Chaos Theory. Introduction to Chaos Theory. A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory

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Shanghai TMP 2004

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  1. Shanghai TMP 2004 Top Management Program Shanghai Prof. F.. M. Macaranas May 2004

  2. I. Introduction to Chaos Theory

  3. Introduction to Chaos Theory A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory • Definition:science that determines order in the randomness and unpredictability that exist in the natural and social systems Ex: coastlines, mountains, clouds, galaxy clusters, leaves, heart rhythms, etc.

  4. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Self-organization in public administration: citizens can co-create goals, plans, and outcome that can be sustained by them and communities Dynamic evolution of industries and complex interactions among industry actors Human interaction and leadership styles: business organizations as complex adaptive systems Firms respond to changes in the environs more effectively if authentic relationships are valued at all levels of the companies Monsanto experiment: overloading 22,000 people to find new and creative ways of adapting to new environ

  5. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Long-term strategies that are incremental and adaptive rather than prescriptive and rigid Furnaces that burn hotter, metals that can be more stressed, cars that burn fuel without stalling out Non-linear thinking in crisis management: real-time information provided by CNN during the Gulf War change political and military decisions unexpectedly

  6. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory underlying principles • Non-linearity • Determinism • Sensitivity to initial conditions • Sustained irregularity in the behavior of the system • Unpredictable long-term behavior • Self-organization • Positive feedback loops • Qualitative character of systems rather than numerical predictions of future states • Unstable • Aperiodic – no periodic repetition of values

  7. Characteristics of Systems

  8. Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. Chaos theory-based SWOT Identify the Strengths of an entity Classify whether these are characterized by order chaos randomness Identify W, O, and T Combine internal and external elements Think of a strategy based on the combination

  9. Chaos Theory Example Chaotic systems, in this case a fractal, can appear to be smooth and ordered.

  10. first recursion second recursion fourth recursion third recursion Chaos Theory Example: The Sierpinski’s Triangle

  11. Applications to New Concept of National Security A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. SWOT analysis • Definition: a strategic model in management that combines internal strengths and weaknesses of an entity, and external opportunities and threats facing the same entity Opportunities Threats Strengths S-O S-T Weaknesses WO W-T Fractals are recursively defined and infinitely detailed

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