1 / 45

Earthquakes and Tsunamis: The Year 2010 in Review

James D. Goltz Ph.D. Earthquake and Tsunami Program Manager California Emergency Management Agency California Industrial Hygiene Council Conference San Diego, December 7, 2010. Earthquakes and Tsunamis: The Year 2010 in Review. Cal EMA Earthquake and Tsunami Program.

carter
Download Presentation

Earthquakes and Tsunamis: The Year 2010 in Review

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. James D. Goltz Ph.D. Earthquake and Tsunami Program Manager California Emergency Management Agency California Industrial Hygiene Council Conference San Diego, December 7, 2010 Earthquakes and Tsunamis: The Year 2010 in Review

  2. Cal EMA Earthquake and Tsunami Program • Many sources of information on natural hazards • Mine is an emergency management and social science perspective • The Cal EMA Earthquake and Tsunami Program is part of the Preparedness Division of Cal EMA • There are 9 of us working statewide with a budget of approximately $4 million per year • Funding sources are NOAA, FEMA and State general fund

  3. Significant Earthquakes in California

  4. Earthquakes in California 1769-2000 M5.5 and Greater

  5. Seismic Hazard Map of California

  6. Earthquake Probabilities for California* • Probability of a M6.7 earthquake in California in the next 30 years is 99% • Probability of a M7.5 earthquake in California is 46% • Highest probability of an earthquake is in southern California Source: Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

  7. Current Cal EMA Program • Addresses earthquake, tsunami and volcanic hazards • Main program areas: • Local government planning & exercises • Hazard mitigation • Public education • Partial funding of seismic network • Knowledge & technology transfer • Target audiences • Local government (cities & counties) • Public (residents and visitors)

  8. Cal EMA Earthquake Program Collaborators • Scientific organizations • US Geological Survey • Public and Private Universities (Caltech, UC Berkeley, USC) • California Geological Survey • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • Emergency Management • Federal Emergency Management Agency • Other state agencies with emergency management functions • Local emergency services agencies

  9. Current Program Priorities: Seismic Network • Support for the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) $2 million per year • Provides information on all California earthquakes • Includes ~1200 stations • Magnitude, location, time of occurrence in real-time • Also source of ShakeMap • Receives info feed from global networks

  10. Current Program Priorities: Technologies for Emergency Response CISN Display ShakeMap ENS HAZUS PAGER

  11. Current Program Priorities:Public Education and Outreach • In 2008,2009 and 2010 Cal EMA was a principal • organizer of the Great California ShakeOut • Drop, Cover and Hold On Drill (All Years) • Statewide Earthquake Exercise (08) • International Earthquake Conference (08) • Localized events to raise awareness (All Years)

  12. Why Drop, Cover, and Hold On? • Buildings rarely collapse in California • Most people are injured in earthquakes by things falling on them • Get under something to be safe! • DO NOT get in a doorway! • It does not protect you from falling items, and in strong shaking you can not stand • DO NOT believe the “triangle of life”! • You are safer under, not next to a table • www.dropcoverholdon.org explains why

  13. Current Program Priorities: Catastrophic Earthquake Planning • Plans for response to earthquakes M>7.5 • the SF Bay Area • Southern California • Cascadia Subduction Zone • Midwest

  14. Impacts from M7.8 Scenarioon the Southern San Andreas • $213 Billion in losses • 1,800 estimated deaths (low because of mitigation already done, but more needs to be accomplished) • 50,000 injuries severe enough for emergency room • Approximately 255,000 households will be displaced,542,000 persons will need shelter and up to 2.5 million will require some level of assistance • 1,600 fire ignitions (model does not include Santa Ana conditions) • Hundreds of buildings will collapse and thousands will never be usable again. Greatest loss of buildings and loss of life occur in older brick and non-ductile concrete moment-frame buildings (unreinforced masonry URM) • Lifelines (power, gas, water, phone, transportation) severed with 15 – 30 foot offsets across the fault • Local emergency response capability overwhelmed, mutual aid from outside the region • 2/3 of hospital beds lost to structural and non-structural damage

  15. Current Program Priorities:Earthquake & Tsunami Response • Duty Officer for earthquake and tsunami 24/7 responsibility for response • CEPEC review of anomalous seismic activity

  16. Current Program Priorities:Earthquake Early Warning Earthquake early warning: An attempt to alert people that ground motion from a distant earthquake is approaching • Potential Advantages: • Personal safety (drop, cover, hold on) • Rapid and automated mitigation • Reduce loss of life and property damage

  17. This Years Earthquakes and Tsunamis • M6.5 Off shore Northern CA, January 10 • M7.0 Port au Prince Area, Haiti January 11 • M8.8 Maule, Chile, February 27 • M7.2 Baja California, April 4 • M6.9 Qinghai, China, April 13 • M7.0 South Island (Christchurch), New Zealand, September 3 • M7.7 Sumatra, Indonesia, October 25

  18. Eureka, California • M6.5 at 4:28 PM on Sunday, January 10 • Location: 30 miles WSW of Eureka • No deaths or serious injuries • $30 million in damage • History of earthquakes in this region: Triple Junction

  19. Eureka Earthquake: Lessons • Reinforced masonry buildings did very well • Those that remained unreinforced did badly • Few people in public places did “drop, cover and hold on” • More running than we would like to see

  20. Port au Prince, Haiti • M 7.0 at 4:53 PM on Tuesday January 12 • 15 miles WSW of Port au Prince • 222,570 Killed, 300,000 injured and 1.3 million displaced • Worst natural disaster since Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004

  21. Lessons Learned • From a seismological and engineering perspective, not much was learned • Reaffirmed that poor nations continue to suffer huge losses of life, catastrophic damage and lengthy recovery periods.

  22. Maule Region, Chile • M8.8 at 3:34 AM on Saturday February 27 • One of the 5 largest earthquakes ever recorded • 577 killed, 12,000 injured and 800,000 displaced • Earthquake caused trans-Pacific tsunami

  23. Lessons Learned • Modern building codes w/strict enforcement saves lives • Connection b/w earthquake and tsunami still not well understood • Beach visitors are vulnerable

  24. Baja California (Sierra El Mayor) • “Easter Day” M7.2 on Sunday April 4 • 30 miles SSE of Mexicali and 35 miles SSE of Calexico, CA • 2 fatalities in Mexico and damage in Baja and Imperial County • About $90 million in damage on US side

  25. Lessons Learned • Migration of aftershocks north caused concern • Extensive surface rupture shed light on the vulnerability of life lines • Gave impetus to planning for southern California earthquake

  26. Qinghai Province (Western) China • M6.9 located 1190 miles WSW of Beijing at 7:49 AM local time • In aftermath of other earthquakes, nearly nothing in news • 2,698 killed, 270 missing, over 12,000 injured • Largest earthquake in history in this region

  27. Lessons Learned • Expect the next earthquake to be unexpected (location too!)

  28. Christchurch, New Zealand • M7.0 located 30 m W of Christchurch at 4:36 AM on Saturday September 4 • No fatalities (2 serious injuries) • Contrast with Haiti earthquake • Good buildings and preparedness paid off!

  29. Lessons Learned • Stark contrasts b/w developed and third world in survivability in a major earthquake • Older building do poorly wherever they are located

  30. Sumatra, Indonesia • M7.7 located 175 miles S of Padang at 9:42 PM • On Monday Oct 25 • Earthquake caused a 10 foot tsunami • 113 killed and 500 Missing • One of the most seismically active regions in the world

  31. Lessons Learned • California faces a similar risk that a near source tsunami will be generated and arrive within 10-15 minutes of an under water earthquake or landslide. • If you are at the beach and experience an earthquake lasting 20 seconds or more, take self-protective action during the shaking, then move inland and to higher ground!

  32. Some Observations on the Year • World seismicity has not increased (rate of earthquakes is stable from year to year) • It will increase in those areas which have experienced large events (aftershocks & triggered earthquakes) • Must do a better job in public safety education for both earthquakes and tsunamis • Good building codes and enforcement save lives

  33. Some Myths Regarding Public Response to a Large Earthquake • Myth#1: Most people will panic during the shaking disregarding appropriate response training (e.g. everyone runs outside) • Myth#2: People will exhibit “shock” becoming passive and require major assistance from response agencies • Myth#3: A massive show of force and control will be needed to prevent looting and other crowd behavior

  34. Myth #1: Panic in an Earthquake Response training won’t help because when the ground starts to shake, instincts take over and everyone will just panic!

  35. From Elementary Seismology by Charles Richter 1958 “Fright and panic are such regular effects of strong shaking that they form an established part of all intensity scales. Persons and populations differ according to their previous experience, but only an abnormally cold-blooded person can remain calm when the structures over his head are being damaged and the ground under his feet is shaking so as to destroy the basic feelings of security. The most universal impulse is to run, even when already outdoors”

  36. Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale 1931 • I Not felt • II Felt indoors by few – especially on upper floors, or by sensitive or nervous persons. • III Felt indoors by several – motion is usually a rapid vibration. Sometimes not recognized to be an earthquake at first. • IV Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few – Awakened few, especially light sleepers. Frightened no one, unless apprehensive from previous experience. • V Felt indoors by practically all, outdoors by many –Awakened many, or most. • Frightened few--slight excitement, a few ran outdoors. • VI Felt by all – indoors and outdoors. Frightened many, excitement general. • VII Frightened all – general alarm, all ran outdoors. Some, or many, found it difficult to stand. Noticed by persons driving motor cars. • VIII Fright general – alarm approaches panic.Disturbed persons driving motor cars. • IX Panic general • X-XII ?

  37. How Do People Really Respond? “When the earthquake struck what was the very first thing you did?”* Took Cover Remained Ran in Safe Place in Place Outside Whittier Narrows 34.8% 34.3% 8.3% Loma Prieta 26.6% 33.3% 7.9% Northridge 33.6% 40.1% 8.4% * From surveys of three earthquakes conducted by the Institute for Social Science Research at UCLA

  38. Implication: Trust the ability of people to benefit from earthquake and tsunami response training.

  39. Myth #2: Passivity and Dependence A big earthquake is so unexpected and so traumatic that people are incapacitated and become totally dependent on response agencies and NGOs for assistance

  40. Post-Earthquake Survivor Actions • Assist family members, then neighbors & others • Conduct search and rescue of others nearby • Put out fires, provide first aid • Seek information from surviving media • Make decisions about evacuation • Share food and water

  41. Myth #3: Massive Looting A strong show of force will be necessary because many people will take advantage of the lack of control to loot stores and homes.

  42. Criminal Behavior in an Earthquake? • Crime actually goes down after a natural disaster • Some looting will occur but not on a massive scale • Natural Disaster vs. Civil Unrest • Some circumstances defined as looting are not (taking vs. stealing) • Homes are rarely the target of looters

  43. On Myths of Natural Disaster • Would be naive to say that the post-earthquake social situation is a “love fest” • But people are more resourceful and resilient than these myths imply • As survivors of a large earthquake we are an asset to official response, not a hindrance • Programs like CERT, ARC first aid and CPR training and response readiness training will help us cope with the post-earthquake situation

  44. Some Closing Observations • We have had a tough year for large damaging earthquakes (Haiti one of the worst in history) • Should share our best practices with developing nations as part of our humanitarian aid efforts • Work to expand capacity to effectively respond and mitigate for catastrophic events in CA • Continue programs like the ShakeOut to prepare Californians for inevitable large earthquakes and tsunamis • Partner with other agencies and NGOs to carry out cost-effective planning and hazard mitigation • Despite the myths, the public will, on the whole respond adaptively to a natural disaster

  45. Thank You Questions?

More Related