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EU11 Regular Economic Report. Macroeconomic Report: Focus on Croatia. Entering the fifth year of recession. Croatia: Quarterly GDP growth, y/y. EU 11 and EU15: GDP growth, y/y. Source: Eurostat, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations. Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions.

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EU11 Regular Economic Report

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Eu11 regular economic report

EU11 Regular

Economic Report

Macroeconomic Report:

Focus on Croatia


Entering the fifth year of recession

Entering the fifth year of recession

Croatia: Quarterly GDP growth, y/y

EU 11 and EU15: GDP growth, y/y

Source: Eurostat, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations


Deteriorating labor market conditions

Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions

Sour labor market developments, Croatia, in %

Less opportunities (or incentives) even in the informal sector

Source: CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations


External position slightly improved

External Position Slightly Improved

  • External debt although high, shrank slightly due to bank deleveraging – some 20 pp of GDP above EU11

  • CAD turned positive in Q4 2012 while net FDI inflow improved

CAD and Net FDI (% of GDP)

External Debt (% of GDP)

Source: CNB, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations


Public debt on rise

Public Debt on Rise

  • Stronger fiscal consolidation required, especially on the expenditure side

  • 2013 plans hardly achievable

Public Debt and Deficit (% of GDP)

Note: Fiscal deficit assessed for 2008-2011 as per the required ESA95 coverage

Source: MOF, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations


Weak signs of bottoming out

Weak Signs of Bottoming Out?

Tourism recovered to pre-crisis levels, but low impact on trade…

High frequency indicators

Source: CNB, CROSTAT, World Bank staff calculations


Eu11 regular economic report

Some Softening of the Labor Market

Source: CROSTAT, HZZ, World Bank staff calculations


Eu11 regular economic report

However, Structural Problems Deepened

Job destruction in industry continued; public sector employment dominated

Labor market entry for youth particularly constrained

Source: CROSTAT, HZZ, World Bank staff calculations


Reform agenda seizing opportunities

Reform agenda – seizing opportunities

  • 84th in the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings or 81st on the Global Competitiveness rankings

  • Challenging competition after July 1 with many of the world’s best nations for doing business.


What to do fiscal consolidation

What To Do – Fiscal Consolidation

  • Need to regain the investment credit rating before the capital market deteriorates (again)

    • Interest payments at 3% of GDP already at the capital spending level

    • Expenditure-based consolidation remains a priority – public spending at around 45% of GDP as opposed to 40% of GDP of EU10

    • Fiscal space exists in the area of the wage bill, subsidies and consumption

    • Social spending requires redistribution from categorical to targeted social programs and a separation from contribution-based benefits from categorical benefits

    • Capital spending needs to be EU-funded and to take into consideration future maintenance cost


What to do investment climate

What To Do – Investment Climate

  • Strengthen the business environment in the areas of: insolvency proceedings; issuance of construction permits; registering property; and transparency of related-party transactions.

  • Open up the network industries such as energy, railways, postal services and telecoms to competition to deliver better services at better prices for business and citizens.

  • Deepen the governance reform in the areas of: e-governance, performance-based public sector pay; territorial reorganization; review business necessity of quasi-fiscal institutions

Source: World Bank

Time/Cost

Disclosure


What to do labor market and social sectors

What To Do – Labor Market and Social Sectors

  • Demand and supply side issues, no quick wins:

    • EPL still highly rigid in stimulating employment and accelerating restructuring

    • Skill mismatches

    • Low labor participation

    • Which reforms:

      • Increasing hiring flexibility (a good set of proposals submitted by the government)

      • Reducing rigidity of collective firing

      • Improving VET education and providing incentives for LLL

      • Reducing incentives for early retirement, consolidating social benefits and improving their targeting


What to do eu funds

What To Do - EU Funds

  • July 1, 2013 Croatia Becomes 28th EU Member State

  • EU Structural Funds:

    • 1.2% of GDP available for absorption in 2013 or 0.8% of GDP in payments.

    • Around 3.5% of GDP per year over the next programming period in commitments

    • Ease the external balance position and improve debt sustainability

  • What needs to be done?

    • Create fiscal space in the order of 1 percent of GDP per year as counterpart funds and for pre-financing

    • Develop sector and regional development strategies linked to sustainable fiscal frameworks


Thank you www worldbank hr

Thank youwww.worldbank.hr


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