Decision Systems Sciences: Aims and Principle

1. Decision Systems Sciences:Aims and Principle Incoming Address ISSS 2006 Sonoma, CA July 14, 2006 Kyoichi Jim Kijima Tokyo Institute of Technology

2. Structure of Presentation • Systems Research in Japan • Decision Systems Sciences • Integrated Approach to Decision Making • “First formal, then verbal” Research Principle • A Research Output • Soft Systems Modeling • Relevance to Agent-based Systems Sciences • Introduction to the ISSS2007 in Tokyo

3. Systems Research in Japan

4. Current Systems Studies in Japan • As a whole, they have been strong at “hard” approach • Mathematical General Systems Theory • My own background • Social/Organization Systems Theory • Control/Systems Engineering • Simulations and modeling • Soft computing (GA, Neural Network, Simulated Annealing, etc.) • Systems Practice • Operations Management • TQC, Kaizen

5. Integration: Japan’s Competence in Science and Engineering • Integration/harmony:Competence of Japanese Culture • Utilization of Emergence of Systemic Properties • Toyota • Mechanics + Electronics < Mechatronics • Sony • PC + AV + Game < PC entertainment

6. Using Japan’s Competence for promoting Systems Research • Systems Science with emphasis on integration/fusion • Social Science + Engineering • Design of safe and secure society: A big national project of Japan in the next five years • Hard + Soft, Theoretical + Practical • Purposive and purposeful agents: Gaming simulation • Formal (mathematical)-, Verbal- & Simulation-based integrated and comprehensive approach A Typical Research Area Decision Systems Sciences Research Program

7. Decision Systems Sciences

8. Decision Systems Sciences • Integrated study of “Decision making” • Tackle complexity or messes involved in decision process in organizations, communities and societies and their environments, in a holistic and integrated way

9. Decision Systems Sciences • Draws on all of systems sciences • Systems thinking: To promote holism as its primary intellectual strategy for handling complexity in decision situation. • Systems modeling: To describe and analyze relevant aspects of the situation by constructing a variety of models, from mathematical to conceptual. • Systems practice:To translate theoretical notions into the practical domain. (Practical applications of systems thinking/ideas)

10. “First formal, then verbal” principle • Research Principle of Decision Systems Sciences • First, describe the problematic situation as formally as possible. • Then, apply verbal approach to areas beyond the scope where such formal treatments do work. • The formal approach implies mathematical modeling, while the verbal approach includes soft systems thinking.

11. “First formal, then verbal” principle • We admit hard approach has strict limitation on capability for dealing with complexity, but should use it as much as possible. Limited boundary of rigorous formulation Complexity Formalism Two break through Formalism taking soft aspects Scenario simulation

12. “First formal, then verbal” principle Complex phenomena Scenario simulation Formal Approach Soft aspects

13. A Typical Research Output Soft Systems Modeling

14. Soft Systems Modeling • Models emergent properties from interaction among autonomous decision makers, by developing innovative models describing interactions among them. • Adopts formalism by taking “soft aspects” for obtaining “deep”, “insightful” and “non-intuitive” findings • Irrationality, subjectivity, emotion, belief, doubt, misunderstanding, misperception, credibility, etc. • Dramatic Model of Negotiation: An example

15. Dramatic Model of Negotiation: Example • Negotiation as the pre-play stage (lobbying, root-cutting) before the final decision is made • Negotiation= Reciprocal Declarations of Positions and Threats • Theorem: • Two types of dilemma are resolved if and only if the negotiation has settled down.

16. Dramatic Model of Negotiation • i declares “I will do A so that you should do X. Otherwise, I will do B.” • (A, X) : i’s position • B: i’s threat • j declares “I will do Y so that you should do C. Otherwise, I will do Z.” • (C, Y) : j’s position • Z: j’s threat

17. US:((W, R), M), Iraq:((W,A), C)

18. Two types of dilemma of position • (A, X) faces Dilemma of Cooperation iff • There is a strategy A’ available for i such that (A’, X) is more preferable to (A, X) for i. • j cannot believe that i will really carry out his declared positionA in a cooperative way.

19. If US’s position (W, R) faces dilemma of cooperation

20. Two types of dilemma of position • (A, X) faces Dilemma of Trust • There is a strategy X’ available for j such that (A, X’) is more preferable to (A, X) for j. • i cannot trust that j’s acceptance of i’s position.

21. US’s position (W, R) faces dilemma of trust

22. Negotiation Process • t = 0 ((A,X), B), ((C, Y), Z) • t = 1 ((A’,X’), B’), ((C’, Y’), Z’) • t = 2 ((A”,X”), B”), ((C”, Y”), Z”) • … • … Reciprocal declaration of positions and threats

23. Consensus Making • We call i achieves consensus at time t if the position at that time, say, (A”, X”) is Nash equilibrium Because of the properties of Nash equilibrium, the definition is very natural.

24. Main Theorem of Dramatic Model of Negotiation i achieves a consensus at time t if and only if at that time the position does not face either of dilemmas.

25. Confrontation Analysis • A more practical algorithm for structuring confrontation as networks on a map • Stakeholders • Interrelationships among them • Assumptions behind stakeholders’ claims • Practices • Conflicts over a river pollution in Indonesia • Conflicts between tribes in African countries

26. Negotiation in Japanese Style • WA (harmony) is most appreciated. • Not position nor threat, but humble proposal like: • Could you please do X, though it is not the best for you, then I will do A, which is not the best for me? • Which style will lead to an agreement more smoothly, threat or WA? • We need further investigation.

27. Relevance to Agent-based Social Systems Sciences Umbrella Research Program of Decision Systems Sciences

28. What is Agent-based Social Systems Sciences(ABSSS) ? • A New Frontier in Systems Research in Japan • An umbrella research program under which Decision Systems Sciences is positioned as a main stream. • Authorized research area at Tokyo Tech as a COE (center of excellence) program by the Government.

29. What is the COE program? • Research/educational program at national level implemented by the Government • to improve international competitiveness of Japanese universities. • to develop research centers capable of producing top-level researchers of the future. • Supported by reasonably big budget for five years • The ISSS 2007 will be supported by this program

30. Introduction to the ISSS 2007in Tokyo

31. Introduction to ISSS 2007 in Tokyo • The 51th annual conference will be held at Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo from 5 August to 10 August, 2007. • Taking advantage of the fact that Tokyo is a cross-point of western and eastern culture, and tradition and modernism. • We would like to promote in the ISSS • integration between cultures, • harmony between theorists and practitioners, and • fusion among generations

32. Conference Theme of ISSS 2007 in Tokyo • Integrated Systems Sciences: Systems Thinking, Modeling and Practice • A wide variety of researches are welcomed. • Not only those emphasizing methodological aspects. • But also those investigating real social/natural phenomena by using systems idea. • A wide range of distinguished speakers are invited. • From industry, academia, government and NPO/NGO • Unique presentations • “Polytheistic Cosmology of Japanese Religion” (Buddhism priest) • “Success factors of Japanese Manufacturing Industry (Tentative)”

33. Tokyo Now • We are now economically reviving after the “lost decade” so that you are certainly able to enjoy your stay in Tokyo. • Many attractive spots can be reached by less than thirty-minute ride on train.