Trends in Wireless Systems
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Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry. Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D. [email protected] 406 994 7172 March 17, 2003. Outline. Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

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Trends in wireless systems a subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

Trends in Wireless Systems

A subjective view of a

rapidly evolving industry

Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D.

[email protected]

406 994 7172

March 17, 2003


Outline

Outline

  • Some user trends

  • The emergence of WiFi (802.11)

  • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

  • Some areas for research and innovation


Mobile devices will dominate

Subscribers worldwide

Millions

Mobile phone

Wireline phone

TV households

PCs

Mobile devices will dominate

Source:

Risto Perttunen,

McKinsey, 9/00


Trends in wireless systems a subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

Taiwan

Sw.

Italy

Fin.

Neth.

UK

Den.

Ger.

S. Kor.

Spain

Aus.

Fr.

Japan

USA

Malay.

Canada

Brazil

India


Strong growth in cellular subscribers us data

Strong growth in cellular subscribers (US data)

Subscribers Double 97- 00

Source: CTIA, 2000


Trends in wireless systems a subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

DoCoMo annual revenue per user

(voice and i-mode)

(JY)

8740

8650

8480

Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, www.nttdocomo.com Investor Relations


1 billion wireless gadgets by 200x choose x 4 5

1 billion wireless gadgets by 200x (Choose x = 4, 5, ...)

  • Gadgets and technology originally developed for one purpose will be used in new and innovative ways for other purposes

    • WiFi developed for enterprise wireless LANs but can be used as public infrastructure

  • Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gadget trends leading to different needs and capabilities

    • Integration:

      • cell phone as pager, organizer, e-wallet, radio, media player ...

    • Specialization:

      • different functionality, form factors, power requirements, connectivity, processing and storage, fashion niches


Example integration

Example: integration

  • DoCoMo 3G FOMA phone

  • Download 684 kbps, Upload 64 kbps (nominal)

  • Still and video digital camera

    • Add text and frames to pictures or split into a jigsaw puzzle

    • Send as email

    • Share video while talking

  • Remote video monitoring using a second phone

  • i-motion service for multimedia content download (music, movie clips etc)

Source: NTT DoCoMo website


Example hybrid

Example: hybrid

  • BlackBerry Wireless Handheld

  • Initially paging, now two-way e-mail

  • Initially text-based, now image and text

  • Cellular voice added

  • Targeted at business users

  • Integrates with office software

  • High level of security

Source: BlackBerry web site


Example specialization

Example: specialization

Designed to do one function very well


Traffic characteristics

Multimedia

Relative Traffic

70 – 80 %

50 %

Voice

20 – 30 %

50 %

2000

2005

2010

Traffic characteristics


Bandwidth available is inversely proportional to range

Bandwidth Available is Inversely Proportional to Range


Outline1

Outline

  • Some user trends

  • The emergence of WiFi (802.11)

  • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

  • Some areas for research and innovation


Wireless lans technologies

Wireless LANs – Technologies

[1] Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum

[2] Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum

[3] Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing


Wireless lans complement or compete with cellular

Wireless LANs: complement or compete with cellular?

Source: Pyramid research


New intel chip set will this get the ball rolling

New Intel chip set:Will this get the ball rolling?


W lan deployment work in progress

W-LAN Deployment – work in progress

  • Security – older 802.11 standard (WEP) being replaced

    • 802.1x for authentication/password

    • Alternative is access point controller (e.g. Bluesocket or Vernier)

  • Visitor Based Networks (VBNs) or Hot-Spots

    • Boutique ISPs emerging now: Boingo, Joltage, Wayport, EtherLinx, WiFi Metro

    • Larger ISPs waiting for wireless WAN solution to emerge

  • Provisioning and management of W-LANs

    • Enterprise and residential provisioning of subscribers

    • Configuration of security and QoS


Typical hotspots

Coffee Shop/Hotel/Public Space, etc

Typical Hotspots

  • Architecture commonly deployed in Coffee shops and airports:

Installation (Per Site)

Hardware:$4000

Installation:$500

On-going

Internet Access:$150/month

Access Point(s) are “dumb” & AAA Server Located at Every Site


Wifi and fries

WiFi and Fries…..

March 11,2003


Convergence use of wifi for fixed internet access

Convergence?Use of WiFi for fixed Internet access


A peculiar marriage cable operator using wifi for fixed access

A peculiar marriage:Cable operator using WiFi for fixed access

March 11,2003


Integration of voice and data on wifi

Service Provider’s

Network

Integration of voice and data on WiFi

Note PC

User Premises

Wireless

Access Point

LAN

Voice&Data

PDA

Mobile

Communication

Server and system

  • Features

    • Voice & Data Integration by IP

    • Realtime Mobility

      • Seamless handoff, Voice support

    • Wireless Security

      • AAA and encryption for the access network

    • QoS

      • Admission control, L2 QoS management

Cellular

Handset


Trends in wireless systems a subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

The Convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular…

NY Times, July 15, 2002

  • Talks Weigh Big Project on Wireless Internet Link

  • By JOHN MARKOFF

  • SAN FRANCISCO, July 15 — Several leading computer and telecommunications companies

  • are discussing the joint creation of a wireless data network that would make it possible for users

  • of hand-held and portable computers to have access to the Internet at high speeds nationwide.

  • The Intel Corporation, I.B.M., AT&T Wireless and several other wireless and Internet service

  • providers including Verizon Communications and Cingular are exploring the creation of a

  • company to deploy a network based on the increasingly popular 802.11 wireless data standard,

  • known as WiFi, according to several people close to the talks…….


  • Seamless mobility transparent operations cellular to wifi

    Seamless Mobility/Transparent operations: Cellular to WiFi

    ITSUMO testbed

    Telcordia/Toshiba research project


    The car as the next internet appliance

    Fixed Network

    WiFi Network

    The car as the next internet appliance

    Content

    • Seamless mobility

    • Fast handoffs

    • Content adapts to available bandwidth

    IGW

    IGW

    IGW

    IGW

    IGW

    Hot Spot

    ...

    Cellular Network

    Current solutions are limited in scope and functionality


    Summary wireless lan applications

    Summary– Wireless LAN applications

    • W-LAN solutions converging on WiFi (802.11b -> 802.11a)

      • Enterprise & residential WiFi LAN network opportunity exists today

      • Hot-Spot & Visitor Based Nets (VBNs) coming?

      • W-LAN obstacles to mitigate: QoS, mobility, scaling,security

      • Interworking with cellular- coming soon


    Outline2

    Outline

    • Some user trends

    • The emergence of WiFi (802.11)

    • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

    • Some areas for research and innovation


    Cellular networks is there a 4g coming the bandwidth perspective

    Speed bps

    BT = Bluetooth

    H2 = Hiperlan 2

    PDC = Personal Digital Cellular

    100 M

    H2

    802.11

    PBCC

    10 M

    802.11b

    5.5/11 Mb

    802.11

    BT

    WCDMA

    1 M

    EDGE

    cdmaOne

    1X EV-DC, 3X

    GPRS

    100 K

    PDC

    cdma2000

    1X

    10 K

    GSM

    TDMA

    AMPS

    cdmaOne

    2G

    1G

    2.5G

    3G

    4G

    3.5G

    1990

    2010

    2000

    1985

    Cellular networks- is there a 4G coming?The bandwidth perspective

    ??

    ?


    Wireless generations user s view

    Wireless generations: User’s view


    Trends in wireless systems a subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry

    This is just the beginning!

    Source:

    Rainer Malaka, EML

    ICDE 2001


    4g imperatives 1 of 3

    4G Imperatives(1 of 3)

    • Innovative applications, not voice, will be the key revenue generator

      • Programmability and open interfaces

        while maintaining security, QoS, and bill-ability

      • Foster a 3rd-party app developer community

        Build on work centered on fixed networks

      • The search for the killer app should never end

        Any static portfolio of applications and services will eventually become a commodity

      • Radical personalization and niche applications

        Applications with a market size of 1


    4g imperatives 2 of 3

    4G Imperatives(2 of 3)

    • True convergence with the Internet is critical

      • IP must be supported efficiently

      • Remove discontinuities at the wired/wireless interface and the data/voice interface

      • The Internet must also evolve to support wireless mobility and ubiquity efficiently

        Example: Fundamental addressing issues dictate IPv6

        Example: Fundamental inefficiencies in supporting mobility must be removed


    4g imperatives 3 of 3

    4G Imperatives(3 of 3)

    • Spectrum will remain the vital resource

      • Integrate with unlicensed spectrum

        • Allow creative technology and business models for seamless inclusion of hotspots and multi-hop WLAN and other technologies

      • Manage licensed spectrum efficiently

        • Consider dynamic and market-based mechanisms for on-demand spectrum allocation


    4g the basic model

    4G: The Basic Model

    3rd-party

    Applications

    Native

    Applications

    Voice

    OPEN INTERFACE

    Middleware

    OPEN INTERFACE

    IP-Based Core Network

    OPEN INTERFACE

    PAN, CAN, AAN etc.

    Native

    WLAN

    Hotspot

    3rd-party

    WLAN

    Hotspot

    3G / Native Access

    3G / 3rd-party Access

    4G Access Network

    Emerging

    Access


    Evolution towards 4g

    Evolution towards 4G

    • 3.5G: An All-IP network (i.e., with Wireless IP) integrating all our current favorite IETF protocols (MIP, FMIP, HMIP, CARD, PANA, etc )

    • 4G: A programmable, flexible, application-oriented Web-based architecture suitable for fundamentally supporting

      • mobility

      • WWW

      • ubiquitous computing

      • semantics-aware applications


    Outline3

    Outline

    • Some user trends

    • The emergence of WiFi (802.11)

    • The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G?

    • Some areas for research and innovation


    What are some of the missing pieces areas for research and innovation 1 of 3

    What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (1 of 3)

    • Spectrum use

      • Ultra-wideband

      • Dynamic spectrum reuse

      • What about free space optical?

    • Software defined radios

      • Flexible modulation and coding

      • Software downloads of middleware and applications

    • Array antennas

      • Dynamic beam formation

      • Interference rejection

      • Further exploit signal processing and active feed back and control


    What are some of the missing pieces areas for research and innovation 2 of 3

    What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (2 of 3)

    • Ad hoc networks

      • Use the clients as fixed network infrastructure

      • Use alternate routing to mitigate congestion, dead spots

      • What about the third dimension: incorporate satellites

      • Dynamic binding: car-to-car, car-to-roadside

    • Applications designed for wireless: exploit programmable host platforms (BREW, J2ME, Pocket PC, etc.)

      • Location awareness – exploit it

      • Advances in user interfaces – accommodate for mobile use, hands free operation

      • Mobile code (agents) for mobile users


    What are some of the missing pieces areas for research and innovation 3 of 3

    What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (3 of 3)

    • Economic models

      • Innovative business models Cost/benefit analyses

      • Life cycle cost studies

      • Impacts of technology trends

      • Assessments of policy and regulatory changes

      • Regional deployment scenarios


    Summary

    Summary

    • Wireless systems should be defined in terms of applications and services

      • Not purely by air interface protocol

      • Coming: Gazillions of wireless gadgets

      • Need for massive mobile data management

    • Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air interface, terminal device, backbone)

      => programmability and open interface at all levels of the system

      => applications with market size of 1

      A very fertile area for research and innovation


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