Predicting the future climate with ‘climateprediction’ Aims:

7. Predicting the future climate with ‘climateprediction.net’ • Aims: • To use a climate model to produce a forecast of the climate in the years 2050 – 2065 • To present your findings, including the implications of your forecast, to the class.

8. Why are we doing this? • Learn how to predict future climate from a real climate model • Get a feeling for how significant climate change is • Prize for the best 3 presentations • And not forgetting –get a buzz out of analysing genuine data, used by real climate scientists!

9. Global Temperatures 2060

10. Future Temperatures in New Zealand

11. Future Rain and Snow – Southern Hemisphere

12. Difference between the past and the future - Temperatures

13. Using the ‘Student Visualisation Interface’ You will mainly be using - ‘View – Surface fields’ - ‘View – Surface average fields’

14. ‘Projection’… Allows you to select ‘cylindrical’ or ‘satellite’ view

15. Changing the scale to get more Accuracy Use the ‘My Scale’ menu

16. ‘General’… • Allows you to select: • Timescale (season / year) • Year(s) • Season

17. ‘Surface average fields’ – allows you to plot graphs You select what you are plotting, here

18. Getting Started: • Open up the file: • ‘Reference Material’ (you will need this later) • Open up the ‘Student Visualisation Interface’(svi) • Follow the instructions on your sheet. • Optional - Save yourself some time: • If at any point, you come across an image that you think would be good in your PowerPoint presentation, press ‘PrtSc’, open up a Microsoft PowerPoint file and – right click – paste

20. Climate Change at One Location on the Earth Part 2: • Aim: • Produce a PowerPoint presentation showing how much the climate will change at one location- anywhere in the world • Outline some implications of your climate forecast.

21. What you have to do: • Transfer some (minimum 7, maximum 10) plots from your climateprediction.net results into your PowerPoint file. Give them a title. • Do a bit of background research (websites provided) and identify: • What will these shifts in the climate mean for life in the future at your location? • What sorts of things should we be doing now to try to minimise this degree of climate change? • - Put your ideas onto further slides. • Total presentation: • Minimum 8 slides Maximum 12 slides

22. Next lesson: • You will be presenting your work to the class. You may work on your own or in a pair. You will be assessed on: • The content of your PowerPoint slide show – have you covered all the points you were asked about? • How much effort have you gone to, researching the implications of your climate forecast? • Originality – addition of a few eye – catching features to your slide show • How well organised are you – did you get your presentation finished in time? Were you on task all the time and did you read some of the background material so that you could enhance your talk? • How well you talk about your slides to the class

23. Surface Temperatures – (Zoomed in on New Zealand and scale changed)

24. Lower Hutt temperatures – past and future

25. Global Temperatures – all 3 phases

26. Rainfall – Lower Hutt – all 3 phases

27. Global precipitation, all 3 phases

28. Temperatures – Differences between past and future around NZ

29. Difference in Rainfall – between the past and the future

31. Presentation!! • Content of your PowerPoint slide show – have you covered all the points you were asked about?-------- 5 • How much effort have you gone to, researching the implications of your climate forecast?-------- 5 • Originality – addition of a few eye – catching features to your slide show------- 5 • How well organised are you – did you get your presentation finished in time? Were you on task all the time and did you read some of the background material so that you could enhance your talk?--------- 5 • How well you talk about your slides to the class • --------- 10: Class vote!!!