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MDGs after 2015:. Francesca Perucci United Nations Statistics Division. What have we learnt?. Address the “missing elements” of the MD Add the economic productive component Better defined goals and targets at the global and national level

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Mdgs after 2015

MDGs after 2015:

Francesca Perucci

United Nations Statistics Division


What have we learnt

What have we learnt?

  • Address the “missing elements” of the MD

  • Add the economic productive component

  • Better defined goals and targets at the global and national level

  • Clear, well-defined measurement framework to localize the MDGs

  • Addressing inequality issues


What have we learnt1

What have we learnt?

Some of the current criticisms of the MDGs:

  • The goals are too ambitious

  • The MDG framework overlooks inequality and specific population groups

  • Global targets versus national targets?

  • The targets under Goal 8 are not numerical and do not set any specific deadlines

  • There is too much focus on health

  • Key elements of the MD are omitted (eg human rights)

  • Some targets are poorly addressed (such as women’s empowerment)

  • Some targets are poorly specified (slums)


What have we learnt2

What have we learnt?

  • Are the indicators appropriate?

  • Vandemoortele’s view: “The misinterpretation of the MDGs as one-size-fits-all targets has set the bar for sub-Saharan African countries unrealistically high.” Should different targets be set at the national level?

  • Too many indicators? Too few?

  • Monitoring requirements are a big burden to countries.


Monitoring progress the adoption of the md was a defining moment for the development community

Monitoring progress: the adoption of the MD was a defining moment for the development community

2000: Member States adopted the Millennium Declaration

  • The “road map” describes how these commitments would be fulfilled

  • The United Nations Secretariat convenes the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG Indicators (IAEG) to identify indicators to track progress

  • The resulting set of goals, targets and indicators constitutes the Millennium Development Goal framework.

    2005: At the World Summit, world leaders committed to four new targets, in addition to those contained in the Millennium Declaration

  • The IAEG identifies the additional indicators needed to monitor progress on the new targets


The mdgs as agreed framework for development

The MDGs as agreed framework for development

  • In the “Follow-up to the outcome of the Millennium Summit”, the General Assembly requested the Secretary-General to report yearly on progress achieved towards implementing the Declaration.

  • This was done based on the

    MDG framework

    • 8 Goals

    • 18 Targets

    • 48 Indicators


Mapping the mdgs

Mapping the MDGs

  • Foster pro-poor policy reforms, resources re-allocation

  • Improve monitoring of indicators

    8 goals

    • few in number

    • Output-based

    • Renew support for ODA

    • Centered on people

    • easy to communicate

      18 targets, 40+ indicators

  • Time-bound and numerical targets for accountability

  • Will trigger action and foster alliances


  • Mdgs the achievements

    MDGs: the achievements

    • The momentum generated by the MDGs

      • Increased awareness of development issues

      • Increased efforts by many donors to provide the necessary development assistance

      • Successful targeted interventions (malaria, HIV/AIDS, measles)

      • Increased attention to the need for strengthening statistical capacity


    Mdgs the shortcomings

    MDGs: the shortcomings

    • Criticism of the MDGs

      • Perceived by many developing countries primarily as a “top-down” initiative

      • Not all goals have clear numerical targets

      • No consensus on how progress towards the targets should be measured

      • One-size fits all is inappropriate for countries at different levels of development

      • Only a subset of development issues emerging from global conferences is included

      • Some elements of the MD are not included

      • Some goals are too ambitious

      • Little or no consideration given to their implications or feasibility at the regional or country level


    Mdgs after 2015

    • What baseline year?


    Mdgs monitoring and reporting

    Global reporting: UN-DESA

    UN/DESA, based on inputs prepared by the various designated agencies in the UN system and the World Bank, IMF and OECD, coordinates the preparation of the global report

    National reporting: UNCT

    MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country Teams

    MDGs Monitoring and Reporting


    Mdgs monitoring and reporting1

    Global reporting: UN-DESA

    The global report is used as a basis for the Secretary-General’s report to the General Assembly

    Objective provide a global assessment of progress towards the achievement of MDGs

    Target audience  member states

    National reporting: UNCT

    MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country Teams

    Objective raise awareness: advocate; focus national development debate on specific priorities; build national capacity for monitoring/reporting on MDGs

    Target audience  national policy makers, civil society, development partners

    MDGs Monitoring and Reporting


    Mdgs monitoring and reporting2

    Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

    Consultations among the United Nations Secretariat, IMF, the World Bank and OECD led to the selection of more than 40 indicators for the monitoring of progress towards MDGs

    Two subsequent inter-agency expert group meetings were held to further revise the millennium development goal indicators in March and April 2002

    MDGs Monitoring and Reporting


    Mdgs monitoring and reporting3

    Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

    The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators:

    reviewed the MDG Indicators framework

    discussed data availability, conceptual issues, data accuracy and measurement problem at national level

    discussed geographical coverage and consistency over time for the calculation/estimation of regional and global figures for the two benchmark years (1990 and 2000)

    MDGs Monitoring and Reporting


    Mdgs monitoring and reporting4

    Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

    The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators produced the revised list of 48 Millennium Indicators. The list was adopted by all partner agencies and the UN Secretariat for the global monitoring towards the achievement of MDGs

    MDGs Monitoring and Reporting


    Millennium indicators

    Millennium Indicators

    Why is the Millennium Indicator Set an important achievement?

    • It proved effective in building up consensus among agencies and collaboration in data compilation

    • It represents a first significant step in the search for harmonization and rationalization of development indicators within the UN system

    • It is a goal/target-oriented list and so provides policy-oriented statistics

    • It provides a framework for coordination among and within international organizations and between international organizations and countries, for statistical capacity-building


    Millennium indicators1

    Millennium Indicators

    From the Millennium Indicator Set to country-relevant indicators

    There is concern on:

    • The selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets

    • How to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level

    • The availability and quality of data necessary for the MDG indicators


    Mdgs after 2015

    Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women

    Target 4. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and to all levels of education no later than 2015

    Ind. 11 - Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (ILO)

    The target does not address the whole spectrum of the goal.

    The indicator does not have a clear link with the target.

    The indicator is not completely adequate to address gender equality in the labour market. Other variables would need to be considered, such as working conditions, the levels of remuneration and wage differentials, labour legislation and social benefits, full-time versus part-time jobs, the status in employment, the importance of the informal sector/home-based work in the country, etc.

    Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets: a few examples


    Mdgs after 2015

    Goal 8. Develop a global partnership for development

    Target 16.In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth

    Ind. 45 - Unemployment rate of 15-to-24-year-olds, each sex and total (ILO)

    Unemployment is but one dimension of the employment problems faced by young people. A large number of young women and men in many countries are underemployed – either working fewer hours than they would like to, or working long hours for little economic gain. Also, economic stagnation and declining opportunities in the formal sector have resulted in a shift to work in the informal sector or in unpaid house-based work.

    Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets: a few examples


    Millennium indicators2

    Millennium Indicators

    • The process of selection of MDG Indicators had the main purpose of reaching a global consensus on ways of measuring and assessing progress in achieving development goals

    • MDG Indicators for national reporting should be tailored to countries’ needs and circumstances


    Millennium indicators3

    Millennium Indicators

    MDG Indicators for national reporting should be developed taking into account:

    • Gender perspectives

    • Differences among socio-economic and/or ethnic groups

    • Specific country’s circumstances in all spheres (such as health, education and the economy)


    Mdgs after 2015

    Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

    Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

    Ind. 1- Proportion of population below$1(PPP) per day (World Bank)

    At the country level it may be more relevant to consider the different dimensions of poverty, including not only market-based consumption, but also the public provision of goods and services, access to resources, aspects related to a satisfactory life, levels of education, health and mortality, etc.

    This conceptualization may be more instrumental in understanding the conditions of social and economic deprivation and its gender dimension and be more informative for policy makers.

    Millennium IndicatorsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples


    Mdgs after 2015

    Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

    Target 2. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

    Ind. 4 - Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (UNICEF - WHO)

    There are countries where child malnutrition concerns only specific population groups/geographical areas. The global indicator therefore has no relevance unless appropriately disaggregated. Other specific aspects of child nutrition and well-being may be considered.

    Millennium IndicatorsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples


    Mdgs after 2015

    Goal 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

    Target 8. Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

    Ind. 21 - Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria (WHO)

    Ind. 22 - Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures (UNICEF - WHO)

    Malaria represents a major disease when considering its toll on the world’s population or the population of specific regions and sub-regions. In most countries, however, other aspects of human health should be considered.

    Millennium IndicatorsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples


    Millennium indicators the availability and quality of data necessary for the mdg indicators

    Millennium IndicatorsThe availability and quality of data necessary for the MDG indicators

    Problems with data for MDG Indicators are related to:

    • Lack of international standards

    • Failure in adopting international standards at the national level

    • Measurement problems

    • National programmes not fully developed in specific statistical areas

    • New statistical areas, with recent methodological development


    Data availability for mdg indicators an example

    Data availability for MDG Indicators: an example


    Strengthening statistical capacity

    Strengthening statistical capacity

    • The national reporting mechanisms – MDG country reports– can help identify areas where efforts to strengthen statistical capacity are most needed

    • One important outcome of the preparation of the MDG National Reports will be improved national capacity for national monitoring of MDGs

      This will help raise awareness on the need to produce policy-oriented statistics, that is, statistics to address specific goals and targets


    Conclusions

    Conclusions

    Keeping the global and national monitoring close together will help

    • Identify and correct differences and inconsistencies in statistics and indicators as presented at country level and in the global report/database

    • Incorporate inputs from countries in the global picture

    • Identify areas for improvement in statistics and channel resources and interventions of development partners towards them


    Millennium indicators database millenniumindicators un org

    Millennium Indicators Databasemillenniumindicators.un.org

    United Nations Statistics Division


    Millennium indicators database

    Millennium Indicators Database

    In close collaboration with United Nations agencies and funds, the World Bank, IMF, and OECD, UNSD maintains the database containing the series related to the selected indicators, as well as other background series intended to supplement the basic 48 Millennium indicators for more in-depth analysis.


    Millennium indicators database1

    Millennium Indicators Database

    • The figures presented in the database are from international series compiled by the various agencies.

    • The availability of data necessary to calculate the indicators depends on the availability and quality of data in countries

    • When country data are not available or are affected by serious quality problems international agencies provide adjusted data or estimates


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

    Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day (WB)

    82

    0

    Poverty gap ratio (WB)

    82

    0

    Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (WB)

    116

    1

    Prevalence of underweight children under 5 (UNICEF)

    133

    0

    Proportion of undernourished population (FAO)

    3

    97


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 2 - Achieve universal primary education

    Net enrolment ratio in primary education (UNESCO)

    33

    118

    Prop. pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (UNESCO)

    18

    87

    Literacy rates of 15-24 years old (UNESCO)

    0

    136


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year

    only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 3 - Promote gender equality and empower women

    Girls to boys ratio, primary level enrolment (UNESCO)

    11

    200

    Girls to boys ratio, secondary level enrolment (UNESCO)

    16

    192

    Girls to boys ratio, tertiary level enrolment (UNESCO)

    23

    151

    Ratio of female over male literacy rates, aged 15-24 (UNESCO)

    0

    136

    Share of women in wage employment/non-agriculture (ILO)

    0

    40

    Women in parliamentary seats, per cent (IPU)

    6

    174


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 4 - Reduce child mortality

    Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births (UNICEF)

    2

    191

    Infant mortality rate (0-1 year) per 1,000 live births (UNICEF)

    2

    191

    Children 1 year old immunized against measles % (UNICEF)

    4

    183


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year

    only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 5 - Improve maternal health

    Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births (WHO)

    183

    0

    Births attended by skilled health personnel, per cent (UNICEF)

    157

    0


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year only

    2 or more

    years

    GOAL 6 - Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

    HIV prevalence among pregnant women (UNAIDS)

    104

    0

    Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate

    data being compiled

    AIDS orphans, cumulative (UNAIDS)

    73

    0

    Malaria notified cases per 100,000 population (WHO)

    109

    0

    Malaria death rate per 100,000, all ages (WHO)

    191

    0

    % pop. <5 with fever being treated with anti-malarial drugs (UNICEF)

    32

    0

    % use of insecticide-treated bed nets, in population <5 (UNICEF)

    32

    0

    Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population (WHO)

    191

    0

    Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 (WHO)

    191

    0

    Proportion of cases detected and cured under DOTS (WHO)

    141

    0


    Mdgs after 2015

    Coverage

    1 year

    2 or more

    only

    years

    GOAL 7 - Ensure environmental sustainability

    Forested land area as percentage of land area (FAO estimates)

    0

    198

    Ratio of protected areas to surface (UNSD calculated from UNEP)

    198

    0

    Energy use (Kg oil equivalent) per $1000 (PPP) GDP (WB)

    0

    121

    Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), per capita (UNFCCC-CDIAC)

    4

    213

    Ozone-depleting CFCs consumption (UNEP-Ozone Secretariat)

    0

    151

    Proportion of population using solid fuels (WHO)

    Data being compiled

    % pop. with access to improved water sources, urban (UNICEF)

    76

    86

    % pop. with access to improved water sources, rural (UNICEF)

    77

    84

    % urban pop. with access to improved sanitation (UNICEF)

    70

    87

    Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (Habitat)

    n.a

    n.a


    Millennium indicators database2

    Millennium Indicators Database

    • The database also contains the global and regional figures that have been used in the preparation of the Secretary-General’s report: Implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration, A/57/270


    Millennium indicators database3

    Millennium Indicators Database

    • In order to help focus analysis and assessment of progress at the country level, the Millennium indicators and background data series are also organized and presented by country in Millennium country profiles


    Millennium indicators database4

    Millennium Indicators Database

    • Metadata are also an important component of the database. At this stage, the information includes definitions and sources for each of the indicators presented.

    • More inputs from specialized agencies, on methodologies and related problems, will be included in the near future


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