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The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. The Need for Actuarial Methods Development of the VRAG and SORAG Validations and Replications Recent and Ongoing Studies Conclusions. Clinical Judgment vs. Actuarial MethodsLongstanding, Many Domains, Recent Publicatio
The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk App...

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1. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide Grant Harris Vern Quinsey, Marnie Rice, Zoe Hilton, Martin Lalumi?re Catherine Cormier, Carol Lang, Terry Chaplin (www.mhcp-research.com)

2. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide The Need for Actuarial Methods Development of the VRAG and SORAG Validations and Replications Recent and Ongoing Studies Conclusions

3. Clinical Judgment vs. Actuarial Methods Longstanding, Many Domains, Recent Publications, Conclusions Monahan et al., 2001: The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

4. Development of actuarial methods: 618 violent offenders (approx. 288 sex offenders), variables, predictor selection Definition of Violent Recidivism, Multivariate Methods, Subgroups, Weighting System? Correlation: Occurrence, Speed, Severity of Violence The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

5. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) Psychopathy Checklist Score Elementary school maladjustment Age at index offense* DSM III personality disorder Separation from parents before age 16 Failure on prior conditional release History of nonviolent offenses

6. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) Never married DSM III schizophrenia* Victim injury in index offense* History of alcohol abuse Male victim in index offense

7. The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) Psychopathy Checklist Score Elementary school maladjustment Age at index offense* DSM III personality disorder Separation from parents before age 16 Failure on prior conditional release History of nonviolent offenses

8. The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) Never married DSM III schizophrenia* History of alcohol abuse History of violent offenses History of sex offense convictions Male or adult victim (ever) Phallometric deviance

9. Quinsey, V.L., Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., & Cormier, C.A. (1998). Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk. Washington DC: American Psychological Association. www.mhcp-research.com

10. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

11. Replications (n=26)

12. Father-daughter child molesters and extra-familial sex offenders against girls (Rice & Harris, 2002, Journal of Abnormal Psychology) Violent recidivism: SORAG=VRAG= .78 Violent recidivism (known to be sexual): ROC Area = .81 No unique contribution of ?incest? The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

13. Multi-site Comparison of Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders (Harris, Rice, Quinsey, Lalumi?re, Boer, & Lang, submitted) Violent recidivism: VRAG = SORAG = .73 Violence (known to be sexual): ROC .65, .66 Child molesters and rapists VRAG and SORAG ?bins? Violent recidivism fixed follow-up, no missing items, high reliability: VRAG = SORAG = .84 The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

14. Prospective Replication of the VRAG and clinical judgment (Harris, Rice & Cormier, in press, Law and Human Behavior) Forensic cohort (N=406) from 1990 VRAG items; clinical presentation, clinical teams? discussion -> opinions about risk ROC = .80 versus .62 Incremental validity, short duration, extreme severity? The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

15. Actuarial Risk Assessment and Forensic Decision Making (Hilton & Simmons, 2001, Law and Human Behavior) Review Board decisions: released patients equal to detained in VRAG score Roles of clinical advice, management problems, compliance, criminal history, and physical attractiveness VRAG, not clinical opinion, predicted outcome VRAG as an index of system performance The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

16. Spousal homicide in Ontario. OPP Behavioural Sciences Section Wife Assault Recidivism Risk Appraisal project (Hilton, Harris, & Rice; SSHRC NHRDP) N = 1200 Two actuarial risk assessment tools Screening on the doorstep Comprehensive risk assessment Homicide cases from ViCLAS The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

17. Conclusions: ?Risk? in R/N/R is static and historic ?Dynamic? items failed selection test ?Dynamic? items add no incremental validity Na?ve ?Social Learning Theory? cannot explain violent crime Actuarial usually appropriately atheoretical ?Nice? is the prevention of future victims The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide


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