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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY. John Orr Environment Manager Anglian Region. Is the climate changing?.

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Climate change and the drive for sustainability

CLIMATE CHANGEAND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY

John Orr

Environment Manager

Anglian Region


Is the climate changing
Is the climate changing?

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”

IPCC 4th Assessment Report


“…we have very little time left – indeed less than 100 months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


A PERFECT STORM months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.


Temperature effects
Temperature effects months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Greenhouse effect news
GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NEWS? months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

  • The science behind the greenhouse effect has been known since the late 1800s

  • It is what makes life on earth possible…

  • …and it’s the reason that the surface of Venus is hotter than the surface of Mercury

  • BUT the bad news is that human activities have exceeded the capacity of natural systems to maintain a balance and GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are rising


The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Co 2 concentration
CO months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 20092 concentration


Correlations and coincidence
Correlations and coincidence months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Global scenarios
Global Scenarios months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Tipping points
Tipping points months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


For a 30 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change
For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

  • Global figure of 450 ppmv CO2

  • This implies a UK carbon budget of 4.8 Gt C for 2000 – 2050

  • But 1.2 Gt C have already been emitted from 2000 – 2006


~ months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 20099% p.a. reduction


Education the call to arms
Education – the call to arms months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

  • Schools have a vital role to play in changing behaviours – not just of tomorrow’s citizens but by exporting messages to families and communities now

  • Ultimately we need a new value set and a new economic paradigm to live by

  • Our best chance of achieving this is through our young people

  • By building sustainable schools we can help build a sustainable world


Ukcp09 key findings 2050 s
UKCP09 Key Findings - 2050’s months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

  • Summer temperatures

    • rise by up to around 1.4 degrees in 2020 and

    • 2.5 degrees in 2050

  • Rainfall

    • Summer rainfall will decrease by 6% in 2020, 16% in 2050;

    • Winter rainfall will increase by 6% in 2020, 14% in 2050;

    • But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 41%.


Explaining the trends
Explaining the trends months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Strong global warming observed since 1980 months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Adaptation the scale of the challenge in the uk

Adaptation – the scale of the challenge in the UK months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


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