Climate change and the drive for sustainability
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY. John Orr Environment Manager Anglian Region. Is the climate changing?.

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY

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Climate change and the drive for sustainability

CLIMATE CHANGEAND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY

John Orr

Environment Manager

Anglian Region


Is the climate changing

Is the climate changing?

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”

IPCC 4th Assessment Report


Climate change and the drive for sustainability

“…we have very little time left – indeed less than 100 months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009


Climate change and the drive for sustainability

A PERFECT STORM

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.


Temperature effects

Temperature effects


Greenhouse effect news

GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NEWS?

  • The science behind the greenhouse effect has been known since the late 1800s

  • It is what makes life on earth possible…

  • …and it’s the reason that the surface of Venus is hotter than the surface of Mercury

  • BUT the bad news is that human activities have exceeded the capacity of natural systems to maintain a balance and GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are rising


The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere

The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere


Co 2 concentration

CO2 concentration


Correlations and coincidence

Correlations and coincidence


Global scenarios

Global Scenarios


Tipping points

Tipping points


For a 30 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

  • Global figure of 450 ppmv CO2

  • This implies a UK carbon budget of 4.8 Gt C for 2000 – 2050

  • But 1.2 Gt C have already been emitted from 2000 – 2006


Climate change and the drive for sustainability

~ 9% p.a. reduction


Education the call to arms

Education – the call to arms

  • Schools have a vital role to play in changing behaviours – not just of tomorrow’s citizens but by exporting messages to families and communities now

  • Ultimately we need a new value set and a new economic paradigm to live by

  • Our best chance of achieving this is through our young people

  • By building sustainable schools we can help build a sustainable world


Ukcp09 key findings 2050 s

UKCP09 Key Findings - 2050’s

  • Summer temperatures

    • rise by up to around 1.4 degrees in 2020 and

    • 2.5 degrees in 2050

  • Rainfall

    • Summer rainfall will decrease by 6% in 2020, 16% in 2050;

    • Winter rainfall will increase by 6% in 2020, 14% in 2050;

    • But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 41%.


Explaining the trends

Explaining the trends


Climate change and the drive for sustainability

Strong global warming observed since 1980


Adaptation the scale of the challenge in the uk

Adaptation – the scale of the challenge in the UK


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