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Development Talks 17 September 2012 After Rio +20: More growth!

Development Talks 17 September 2012 After Rio +20: More growth!. Thomas Sterner Visiting Chief Economist EDF Professor Environmental Econ Gothenburg. Is Growth Good ?. Is Growth Good ?. Can ”GROWTH” be bad….?. Yes : for growth in simple output

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Development Talks 17 September 2012 After Rio +20: More growth!

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  1. Development Talks17 September 2012After Rio +20:More growth! Thomas Sterner Visiting Chief Economist EDF Professor EnvironmentalEcon Gothenburg

  2. Is GrowthGood ?

  3. Is GrowthGood ?

  4. Can ”GROWTH” be bad….? • Yes: for growth in simple output • No: NOT If wemeangrowth in welfare and ifwemeasure it right! • This is environmental Economics.

  5. Just go fast and you’ll get there

  6. The market is greatbut • Does not deal withexternalities • Does not deal with public goods • Does not deal with common property • Does not deal with risk and uncertainty • Does not deal withassymetric information • Does not deal with altruism, love or envy

  7. Is AnythingNew under the Sun? • World Bank and UN workshops • Sustainable Development • Max social welfare subject to distributional equity • Is “GG” just re-packaging? • IT IS More, used by (OECD, WB, UNEP, UN RIO+20, Korea) • Green growth defined politically, not economically • This give us an OPPORTUNITY

  8. Olympic Growthmedalists Levying carbon tax, promoting low-carbon education proposed

  9. GrowthThreatened

  10. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS • Biodiversity • Spread of Toxicsubstances • Manipulation of N & P cycles • OzoneDepletion, Acidification • Water, Fish stocks

  11. Wecansolvethese problems • Catch shares • Watertreatment and purification

  12. Climate is special • Longrun • Stock • Global • http://dhcp2-pc011135.fy.chalmers.se/EXEC/0/05wopec04fy3421f88wnj0rjch2c x

  13. CHALMERS CLIMATE CALCULATOR Christian Azar, Daniel Johansson (Frt) (1 region vs) EMISSIONS STOCK OF C TEMPERATURE

  14. STABILIZE EMISSIONS

  15. CUT EMISSIONS 1% FROM 2020

  16. STILL T 2.5 OR 3°

  17. SLASH EMISSIONS 2% IMMEDIATELY

  18. Canwe do this or arewedoomed?

  19. Canwe do this or arewedoomed? • Amory’s House • Amory’sHypercars • Amory’s Vision: ReinventingFire • 0 coal 0 oil, Less Gas; 0 Nuclear • No regulations – just smartness: • The ”Search for Intelligent Life on Earth”

  20. Ask Me--- • I thinkyoucan – but it will be difficult: • Q=YP-β • Emissions risewithincomeunlesspricesriseeven faster!

  21. Can u ”combinegrowth & environment”? • YES. • 5 % growth in Income and 2% DECREASE in emissions ???? • EASY: Price of gas has torise by 9% everyyear.

  22. All youhaveto do is get everyonetoagree • But, everyonedoes not agree. • Taxes not popular • Countriesdivided on goals & means • Fairness in allocationloomsbig

  23. Nigeria abolishedfuelsubsidy Jan 1

  24. Thiswaswhatfailed in COPenhagen • Pretend it does not matter • Have ”green growth” ”instead”?

  25. Green Growthwillrequireagreement • Butplentyto do: • Reseach and Education • Infrastructure • Wind and Solar and Efficiency • Agriculture and Forestry • Short LivedClimateForcers • Bottomuplinkingofcarbon trading

  26. REMEMBER • Taxesto back upthosewhoinvest in the new fire. • Feebates, road pricing, feed-in tariffs… • Utlimately grand deal and carbonpriceneeded.

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