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Modification Proposal 0101 – “ Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”. Current arrangements.

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Presentation Transcript

Current arrangements

Modification Proposal 0101 – “Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”

Current arrangements

Current arrangements

  • Gas Balancing Alert (GBA) used to notify users of insufficient anticipated supplies to meet forecast total system demand. Can be issued at day-ahead or within day stage.

  • Provisions to issue a GBA at D-1 are linked to UNC obligation regarding publication of gas demand forecast (i.e. 14:00 or 02:00).

  • No Provision to issue a GBA at D-1 following an ad-hoc gas demand forecast.

  • National Grid currently provide eight gas demand forecasts for each gas day (three at the day-ahead stage and five within day) two of which are not included in the UNC.

Proposed changes

Proposed changes

  • Change in UNC obligation to increase the number of gas demand forecasts published

  • Associated changes to GBA provision (i.e greater opportunity to issue a GBA)

  • Include reference to ad-hoc forecasting in determining whether a GBA is to be issued.

  • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

Effect on gas demand forecasting publication

Effect on gas demand forecasting publication

  • D-1

  • D0

Modification proposal 0100 amendment to opn sfn submission times

Modification Proposal 0100 – “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times”

Current arrangements1

Current arrangements

  • Offtake Profile Notice (OPN) notifies the transporter of the rate of offtake at an exit point throughout the gas day.

  • Storage Flow Notice (SFN) does a similar job for storage sites.

  • OPN and SFN submission times are defined in the Network Exit Agreements (NExA) and Storage Connection Agreements (SCA) for relevant exit points.

Case for change

Case for change

  • Industry concern about accuracy of D-1 demand forecasts

  • Ofgem likely to incentivise National Grid NTS on the accuracy of the Total System forecast issued by 14:00 D-1.

  • 14:00 forecasts include, amongst other things, a view on likely demand from major industrial loads, power stations, interconnectors and storage sites.

  • Earlier provision of OPNs and SFNs from these sites would give a better informed view of these demands.

Proposed changes1

Proposed changes

  • Define OPN and SFN initial submission times for NTS exit points within the UNC as 12:00 hours.

  • Above change to override timings specified in prevailing Network Exit Provisions in the NExAs, SCAs or Interconnection Agreements.

  • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

Mod proposal no 0100 amendment to opn sfn submission times effect on opn sfn submission time

Mod Proposal No. 0100 “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times” – Effect on OPN/SFN submission time

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