Modification Proposal 0101 – “
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Modification Proposal 0101 – “ Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”. Current arrangements.

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Modification Proposal 0101 – “Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”

Current arrangements

  • Gas Balancing Alert (GBA) used to notify users of insufficient anticipated supplies to meet forecast total system demand. Can be issued at day-ahead or within day stage.

  • Provisions to issue a GBA at D-1 are linked to UNC obligation regarding publication of gas demand forecast (i.e. 14:00 or 02:00).

  • No Provision to issue a GBA at D-1 following an ad-hoc gas demand forecast.

  • National Grid currently provide eight gas demand forecasts for each gas day (three at the day-ahead stage and five within day) two of which are not included in the UNC.

Proposed changes

  • Change in UNC obligation to increase the number of gas demand forecasts published

  • Associated changes to GBA provision (i.e greater opportunity to issue a GBA)

  • Include reference to ad-hoc forecasting in determining whether a GBA is to be issued.

  • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

Effect on gas demand forecasting publication

  • D-1

  • D0

Modification Proposal 0100 – “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times”

Current arrangements

  • Offtake Profile Notice (OPN) notifies the transporter of the rate of offtake at an exit point throughout the gas day.

  • Storage Flow Notice (SFN) does a similar job for storage sites.

  • OPN and SFN submission times are defined in the Network Exit Agreements (NExA) and Storage Connection Agreements (SCA) for relevant exit points.

Case for change

  • Industry concern about accuracy of D-1 demand forecasts

  • Ofgem likely to incentivise National Grid NTS on the accuracy of the Total System forecast issued by 14:00 D-1.

  • 14:00 forecasts include, amongst other things, a view on likely demand from major industrial loads, power stations, interconnectors and storage sites.

  • Earlier provision of OPNs and SFNs from these sites would give a better informed view of these demands.

Proposed changes

  • Define OPN and SFN initial submission times for NTS exit points within the UNC as 12:00 hours.

  • Above change to override timings specified in prevailing Network Exit Provisions in the NExAs, SCAs or Interconnection Agreements.

  • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

Mod Proposal No. 0100 “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times” – Effect on OPN/SFN submission time

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