Security Diagrams: Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society

1. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination) Joseph Alcamo Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik Security Diagrams: Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society Funded by German Research Ministry

2. Crises event Environmental Stress High probabilityof crises Low probability of crises Not a crisis Susceptibility Framework for Quantifying Vulnerability:Security Diagram Focus on droughts

3. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how is it defined by different disciplinary perspectives?

4. Case Studies Volgograd + Saratov Russia Algarve + Alentejo Portugal Andhra Pradesh India

5. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how is it defined by different disciplinary perspectives?

6. Crisis:A Serious disruption of the functioning of societies causing widespread human or materiallosses as well as socio-cultural impacts requiring political and social responses..

7. Identifying Drought Crisis Events • Media analysis -- “Factiva” media data base • (8000 media sources, local/regional/national) • Establish classes of “attributes” of crisis • Identify reliable local media • Tabulate recurrent (> 2 per month) reports of attributes

8. Results of Media AnalysisExample – Southern Portugal, 1983

9. First Estimate – Drought Crisis Events 13/48

10. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how is it defined by different disciplinary perspectives?

11. Water Stress: Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995 Environmental stress: the intensity of environmental change that is (i) an undesirable departure, (ii) short duration.

12. Water Stress Indicators --Test against occurrence of crisis events -- Statistical significance, t test (0.05) Statistically significant indicators Not statistically significant indicators Water withdrawal to availability ratio Deviation of groundwater recharge from long time average Deviation of water availability from long time average Runoff deficit index Deviation of evapotranspiration from long time average MaxIndex Maximum function [withdrawal to availability ratio, deviation of water availability from long term average, and percentage of area with high water stress] Water withdrawal to internal availability ratio Annual groundwater recharge in mm Groundwater discharge per capita Water availability per capita Internal renewable water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (defined as withdrawal to availability ratio of 0.4 or more) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of precipitation from long time average

13. Testing Water Stress Water stress (“MaxIndex”) vs. crisis data from three case study regions 1,0 0,8 Relative frequency of crises [number of crises / number of cases per category] 0,6 0,4 3 crises / 0 crises / 7 crises / 1 crises / 2 crises / 24 cases 4 cases 16 cases 2 cases 2 cases 0,2 0,0 0.0 - 0.2 >0.2 - 0.4 >0.4 - 0.6 >0.6 - 0.8 >0.8 - 1.0 Water Stress (Categories)

14. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how is it defined by different disciplinary perspectives?

15. Susceptibility:the capability of an individual, community or state to resist, adapt and/or recover from environmental stress.

16. Procedure to Assess Susceptibility • Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, • specify relationships between variables, select indicators • for variables. • 2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory • Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh) • 4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility

17. Economics Conceptual Overview Exposure Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Environmental psychology Agents’ Perception of Threat Agents’ Protection Capacity Agents’ Perception of Competence Political science Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus Environ-mental stress Degreeof being susceptible Wealth & Economic Sensitivity EcoSus SocCuSus Socio-cultural Integration Monetary Resources Agriculture Sector Economic Sus Infra-structure System Health Status Social Sus Educational Attainment Gender Equality

18. Model of Psychological Perspective Perceived Probability Agrarian income Depen-dency from agriculture Non-agrarian income Self-Efficacy Agrarian resources Resources if Depen-dency ratio Agrarian food source Non- agrarian resources Non-agrarian food source Appraisal of threat Appraisal of competence Technical measures Perceived Severity Neg. conse-quences “At place” measures Conse-quences of drought Response-Efficacy Pos. conse-quences Suscep-tibility Barriers Threatened values measured input variable dimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem

19. Results for Psychological Perpective Andhra Pradesh, India 2001 Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001 Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001 Low capacity Low capacity Low capacity for technical for technical for technical measures measures measures 1,00 Low capacity 1,00 Dependency Low capacity Low capacity 1,00 Dependency for at place Dependency 0,75 from agriculture for at place 0,75 for at place 0,75 from agriculture measures from agriculture measures measures 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,25 0,25 0,25 Barriers to Dependency Dependency Barriers to Dependency Barriers to 0,00 0,00 implement 0,00 ratio ratio implement implement ratio measures measures measures Appraisal of Appraisal of Appraisal of Low threatened Low Low threatened resources threatened values resources resources values values Negative Negative Negative consequences consequences consequences of drought of drought of drought high low low

20. Model of Political Perspective Immuni-zation Opport. for Particip. Degree of Corruption Tax Revenue Expendi-tures for Health Conflict Involve-ment GDP per Capita Hydro-power Prod. Employees in Agricult. Size of Agricult. Relative State Willingness Lack of Wealth Relative State Capacity Lack of Social Integration Economic Sensitivity Economic Susceptibility Political Susceptibility Socio-cultural Susceptibility Susceptibility

21. Results for Political Perspective Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995 Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995 Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995 Lack of Lack of Lack of Statecapacity Statecapacity Statecapacity 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,75 0,75 Lack of Lack of Lack of 0,50 0,50 0,50 Lack of Lack of Lack of Social Social Social Statewill 0,25 Statewill 0,25 0,25 Statewill Integration Integration Integration 0,00 0,00 0,00 Lack of Lack of Economic Economic Lack of Economic Wealth Wealth Sensitivity Sensitivity Wealth Sensitivity very high low very high

22. Model of Economic Perspective External debt Number of doctors Life expec-tancy GDP per capita Monetary resources Health status Tax revenue Infant mortality Agriculture (% of GDP) Illiteracy Agricul-ture sector Economic suscep-tibility Social suscep-tibility Educa-tional attainment Employees in agriculture Expen-ditures for education Hydro-power production % female in labour force Gender equality Infra-structure system Female literacy Irrigated areas Susceptibility

23. Results for Economic Perspective Susceptibility Susceptibility Susceptibility Russia 1991-1995 Portugal 1991-1995 India 1991-1995 Financial Financial Financial indicators indicators indicators 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,75 0,75 Gender Agriculture Gender Agriculture Gender Agriculture 0,50 0,50 0,50 indicators indicators indicators indicators indicators indicators 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 Education Infrastructure Education Infrastructure Education Infrastructure indicators indicators indicators indicators indicators indicators Health Health Health indicators indicators indicators low low crucial

24. Results Overview Comparison of Disciplines 1,0 0,8 0,6 Susceptibility [Fuzzy Index] 0,4 0,2 0,0 Andhra Pradesh, India Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal Volgograd + Saratov, Russia Economics perspective Political perspective Psychological perspective

25. Summing up • Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis • Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences • Development of methodology to assess susceptibility • Comprehensive and comparative approach to susceptibility • First steps towards integrated approach to study the internal side of vulnerability • Quantification of susceptibility • Consideration of qualitative information • However, more effort needed to validate findings • Consider participative involvement of relevant stakeholder

26. Conclusions • Methodology offers diverse degrees of informational resolution • Depending on stakeholders‘ interest different foci can be chosen • Makes clear that a single action will not be sufficient