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Integration of Simulation Results into Information Systems. Gio Wiederhold April 2002, updated Nov 2002. Information Integration. Information Integration provides new Information for improved Decision Making when it presents more data (mediation 1991)

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integration of simulation results into information systems

Integration of Simulation Results into Information Systems

Gio Wiederhold

April 2002, updated Nov 2002

information integration
Information Integration

Information Integration provides new Information for improved Decision Making when it

  • presents more data (mediation 1991)
    • Risk: much may be irrelevant
  • captures new relationships (knowledge bases 1977)
    • Often requires expert inter-domain knowledge
  • includes current sensor data (fusion, streams 1999)
    • Data reflect the past only
  • includes predictions about future courses

******* A new, potentially major topic *******

decision making dm
Decision-making (DM)

Analyze Alternatives

  • Current Capabilities
  • Future Expectations

Process tasks:

  • List resources
  • Enumerate alternatives
  • Prune alternative
  • Compare alternatives

now

future

prediction requires tools
Prediction Requires Tools

Ó E-mail this book,

Alfred Knopf, 1997

future information systems

o

o

o

o

o

o

Future information systems

Combine data from the past, with current data, knowledge, and predictions into the future

Assessment of the values of alternative possible outcomes

dm support is disjoint

does not interoperate

Databases

Planning Science

Simulation

extensions to move

to networked support

are also disjoint

Distribution

DM support is disjoint
current state of dm support

past now future

time

Intuition +

x17 @qbfera

ffga 67 .78 jjkl,a

nsnd nn 23.5a

Data integration

Databases

distributed, heterogeneous

Current state of DM Support

organized support

disjointed support

  • Spreadsheets
  • Planning of allocations
  • Other simulations
  • various point assessments
information systems should also project into the future s

past now future

time

Information Systems should alsoProject into the Futures

Support of decision-making requires dealing with the futures, as well the past

  • Databases deal well with the past
  • Sensors can provide current status
  • Spreadsheets, simulations deal with the likely futures

Information systems should be able to combine all three

new resources for information
New Resources for Information

Application Layer

Mediation Layer

Foundation Layer

decision-makers at workstations

value-added services

data and simulation resources

interfaces enable integration simql to access simulations

past now future

time

Msg

systems,

sensors

Databases,

accessed via SQL or

XML, CORBA compliant

wrappers

Simulations,

accessed via SimQL and

compliant wrappers

Interfaces enable integration:SimQL to access Simulations
slide11

Developer

Customer

Query

Development

Interaction

Production

Interaction

Parser

Help

Schema

Commands

Help

Schema

Commands

Schema

Manager

Query

manager

Initiation and Results of Simulations

Use of Access

Specs

Metadata

Manager

Error

reports

Filing of

Access

Specs

Wrapped ..

Simulations

Metadata

Prototype Implementation

stanford experiment supported by darpa nist phase 1 architectures

wrapper

wrapper

wrapper

wrapper

Engineering

Weather

(short-, long-term)

Spreadsheets

Stanford experiment, supported by DARPA & NISTPhase 1 Architectures

Logistics

Application

Manufacturing

Application

SimQL access

SimQL access

SimQL access

SQL access

Test

Data

language simple for demo
Language - simple for demo

SQL

SELECT Temperature, Cloudcover, Windspeed, Winddirection FROM WeatherDB

WHERE Date = `yesterday\' AND Location = `ORD\'.

  ----> {75, .30, 5, NW}

SimQL

PREDICT Temperature, Cloudcover, Windspeed, Winddirection FROM WeatherSimulation < name of wrapper accessing web pages >

WHERE Date = `tomorrow\' AND Location = `ORD\'.

-----> { (75, .8), (.30,.8), (5, .8), (NW, .8) }

Would prefer XML representation

slide14

Simulation

results

Simulation

parameters

Place of SimQL in Objective-based Planning

Higher Level Objectives, Intel, OB,

ROE, Commanders Guidance & Intent, Etc.

Campaign

Status

1

Execution Feedback

Determine

Status

2

Develop *

Objectives

Phased Sequenced

Objectives

*: w/Measures

3

Phase & *

Sequence

Objectives

Prioritized Sequenced

Tasks

4

Assign

Task / Activity

Assessment

Plan

5

Develop

Assessment Plan

SimQL

Access to Simulations

Determine

Required Resources

Req’mts

Resource Constraints

7

Assess and/or

Rehearse Plan

from JFACC PIP

Plan Assessment Feedback

types of simulation services
Types of simulation services

1. Continously executing: weather prediction

    • SimQL result reports best match samples

2. Execution specific to query: what-if assessment

    • may require HPC power for adequate response

3. Past simulations collect results in a base: materials

    • performs inter- or extra-polations to match query parameters

4. Combinations, i.e., 2. + 3.: top layer simulation using stored partial lower level results: device performance in new setting

5. Human-in-the-loop(mediated by an agent program): SAFs

Note

  • A simulation service program can be written in any language
  • A simulation service must be compliant to the interface spec.
enabling interoperation
Enabling Interoperation
  • Simulations should
  • serve clients via SimQL by
    • Sharing a Model (research q.)
    • A query language over the model
  • a SimQL interface enables
  • independence of
    • application development
    • simulation technology develop’t
    • reuse of infrastructure
  • Objective
  • build information systems combining DBMS, Simulations
    • even with less performance,
    • inability to handle all problems,
    • but enough of them . . .

Databases

  • serve clients via SQL by

Sharing a Model (The Schema)

A query language over the model

the SQL interface enables

  • independence of

application development

DBMS technology development

reuse of infrastructure

Today

  • most new systems use a DBMS for data storage

even with less performance,

inability to handle all problems,

but enough of them well enough.

internet requirements
Internet requirements
  • Ubiquitous access to simulations

of a wide variety of types

  • Rapid response to parameter changes
    • often High-Performance computation is needed
    • distributed simulations with synchronization
  • Rapid Service Composition
    • High bandwidth among simulations
    • Access to multiple services in parallel
use of simulation results

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.1

0.07

0.03

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.1

time

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

prob

Use of Simulation Results

Simulation results can be composed for

alternative Courses-of-actions

Composition should include computation and recomputation of likelihoods

Likelihoods change as now moves forwards and eliminates earlier alternatives.

the branches can be labeled with probabilities then assessed using the outcome with values

prob

value

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.1

Next period alternatives

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.1

0.07

0.2

0.13

0.4

time

The branches can be labeled with probabilities, then assessed using the outcome with values

100

600

1100 500

200 200

-420 0

-820 -400

1000

2000

5000

1000

0

-6000

-3000

Values

1200

66

134

-1220

& subsequent periods

1266

-1086

past now future

integrating data planning support will make our data reusable and much more valuable

?

?

1266 ?

time

Msgs

sensors

Spreadsheets,

other simulations,

Databases, . . .

Integrating data & planning support will make our data reusable and much more valuable

A Pruned Bush

Re-assess as time

marches forward !

1000

2000

5000

1000

0

100

600

1100 500

200 200

0

1200

66

past now future

even the present needs simql

point-in-time for

situational

assessment

Even the present needs SimQL

last recorded observations

simple simulations

to extrapolate data

past now future

time

  • Is the delivery truck in X?
  • Is the right stuff on the truck?
  • Will the crew be at X?
  • Will the forces be ready to accept delivery?

Not all data are current:

recent state of simql research

wrapper

wrapper

Civil

Engineering

Weather

Spreadsheets

Recent State of SimQL Research

GUI

collect language

requirements

Test Application

wrapper

simql research questions
SimQL research questions
  • How little of the model needs to be exposed?
  • How can defaults be set rationally?
  • How should expected execution cost be reported?
  • How should uncertainty be reported?
  • Are there differences among application areas that require different language structures?
  • Are there differences among application areas that require different language features?
  • How will the language interface support effective partitioning and distribution?
why not use db like storage
Why not use DB-like storage?
  • Volume is large --
    • multiple future alternatives
  • Value is transient
    • tomorrow all values must be updated
    • expect high write/read ratio
        • jut the opposite of typical DB operations
research questions for decision support
Research questions for Decision Support
  • How to move seamlessly from the past to the future?
  • How can multiple futures be managed (indexed)?
  • How can multiple futures be compared, selected?
  • How should joint uncertainty be computed?
  • How can the NOW point be moved automatically?
interfaces enables research integration
Research on

Multiple futures

Uncertainty in databases

Probability estimation

Expert Systems uncertainty

Fuzzy algebra

Prade algebra

Planning Models

allocation and distribution

reduction to current values

Risk management

beta estimation

Databases

Planning Science

Simulation

Distribution

Interfaces enables research integration
prediction as a service
Prediction as a Service
  • Server is an independent contractor, defines service
  • Client selects service, and specifies parameters
  • Server’s success depends on value provided
  • Some form of payment received for services

x,y

Databases are a current example.

Simulations have the same potential.

summary of simql
Summary of SimQL

A new service for Decision Making:

  • follows database paradigm
    • ( by about 25 years )
  • coherence in prediction
    • displacement of ad-hoc practices
  • seamless information integration
    • single paradigm for decision makers
  • simulation industry infrastructure
    • investment has a potential market
    • should follows database industry model:

Interfaces promote new industries

definitions of integration
Definitions of Integration
  • Data Integration: presenting data from multiple sources so that a suite of applications* can deal with it a single (perhaps virtual) database
  • Information integration: presenting information, obtained by processing data and metadata from multiple sources so that an suite of application can deal with it as a coherent information resource.

* application suite:: a set of applications

(collect, maintain, query, analyze)

that have a consistent domain model

  • Application integration: Interoperating processes.

The ideal of open systems

Standards are more difficult, because of hidden semantics

defining application integration
Defining Application Integration ?
  • Application Integration I [Hergula]: include data extracted (via wrappers or transformers) by functions from multiple applications.
  • Application Integration II: Use a workflow model to integrate processes into a higher level representation.
  • Application Integration III: Creating new, higher-order (query, ...) functions by combining existing application functions and made-to-order functions (in SQL, ...)
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