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Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the Colorado River basin April 25-27, 2005

Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the Colorado River basin April 25-27, 2005 International Salinity Forum Riverside, California. Agenda. Issues Addressed Our Solutions Natural Flow Component Natural Salt Component Additional Benefits Publications Concluding Remarks.

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Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the Colorado River basin April 25-27, 2005

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  1. Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the Colorado River basin April 25-27, 2005 International Salinity Forum Riverside, California

  2. Agenda • Issues Addressed • Our Solutions • Natural Flow Component • Natural Salt Component • Additional Benefits • Publications • Concluding Remarks

  3. Issues Addressed • The model could not accurately simulate the historical period 1971-1990 • Problems Identified: • Input data inconsistent • A changing natural flow and salt mass relationship • Limited and out-of-date documentation

  4. Our Solutions • Re-compute natural flow 1971-2000 • Addressing Data Inconsistencies • Recomputing natural flow from 1971-95 Natural Flow = Historic Flow + Consumptive Uses and Losses +/- Reservoir Regulation • Addressing Methodological Inconsistencies • RiverWare model computes natural flow • Ensures consistency

  5. Our Solutions • Develop a new natural salt model • Nonparametric local linear regression • K-nearest neighbor resampling • Capture the changing relationship • Based on data from 1971-1995

  6. Additional Benefits • Better direct new research • understand salt loading resulting from irrigating agriculture • Changing land use from agriculture to M&I • Completed peer reviews with journal articles and supporting documentation • Begun process to move model input data to a secure database • Involve Basin States during entire process

  7. Publications • Prairie, J., Rajagopalan,  B., Fulp, T., and Zagona, E. (2005). "Statistical Nonparametric Model for Natural Salt Estimation." Journal of Environmental Engineering, 131(1), 130-138. • Reclamation (1995). “Draft Upper Basin Consumptive Uses and Losses Report as Revised After Peer Review 1971-1995.” • Clayton, R. (2004). “Upper Colorado River Consumptive Use Determination at CRSS Natural Flow Node Locations CY 1971-1995.” Bureau of Reclamation • Prairie, J. and Callejo, R. (2005) “Natural Flow And Salt Computation Methods 1971-1995” Bureau of Reclamation

  8. Concluding Remarks • Reclamation has a working model that we have confidence in and can support • New salt model can easily be updated • New methods and data in CRSS Salinity Projection Model fully supported with documentation • CRSS Salinity Projection Model implemented for 2005 Triennial Review • Future research targeted to address upcoming issues

  9. Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the Colorado River basin For further information: http://cadswes.colorado.edu/~prairie

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