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Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet. Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna Executive Director Stockholm Environment Institute. Energi , mat... Klimat, vatten, mark... Utmaningar, möjligheter... Växande och krympande värld. ”Hyperconnected and globalized world”.

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Den internationella dimensionen i miljöarbetet

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Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Den internationella dimensionen

i miljöarbetet

Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna

Executive Director

Stockholm Environment Institute


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Energi , mat...

Klimat, vatten, mark...

Utmaningar, möjligheter...

Växande och krympande värld...


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

”Hyperconnected and globalized world”

World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2011


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

“The past 20 years….substantial progress….. Most people…… healthier, live longer, are more educated and have more access to goods and services……… also in expanding people’s power to select leaders, influence public decisions and share knowledge. “

UNDP 2010. Human Development Report 2010. Summary. 20th Anniversary Edition. The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development. (UNDP)

www.brookings.edu

www2.warwick.ac.uk


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Mega cities 1950

Mega cities 2015

Källa: U.N. Population Division

Source:U.N. Population Division

7,231,108,460

5 maj, 14:27:37


The world economy has more than doubled since 1980 and is expected to almost double by 2030

The world economy has more than doubled since 1980 and is expected to almost double by 2030

India

  • Real GDP1by region, 1980 – 2030

  • USD trillions

CAGR, 1980 - 2010

Rest of Asia Pacific

Middle East and Africa

93

5

Latin America

4%

China

OECD Asia Pacific

Europe and Eurasia

10%

North America

50

3%

3

3

4

2%

22

2

3

3%

2010

2030

1980

1 Real GDP: Real GDP (constant 2005 US$). Mexico is included in Latin America.

SOURCE: Projection from USDA(ERS), Actual data from World Bank


The middle class could grow by 3 billion people by 2030

The middle class could grow by 3 billion people by 2030

  • Global middle class

  • Billions of people

4.88

0.11

0.23

0.31

0.32

3.25

0.68

3 billion

0.06

0.17

0.25

1.85

0.33

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.70

0.03

0.11

Middle East and North Africa

0.18

3.23

Central and South America

0.34

North America

1.74

0.66

Europe

Asia-Pacific

0.53

2009

2020

2030

SOURCE: Resource Revolution, McKinsey Global Institute


Ipcc 5th assessment report

IPCC 5th Assessment Report


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Source: IPCC AR5 WG1


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Asia now accounts for ~46% of global emissions, but emissions per capita are still much lower than in North America

GHG emissions, including land use change and forestry, by region, 2010

% of global total emissions

  • GHG emissions per capita in 2010, tCO2e per capita

  • Million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalents

46%

21,325

Asia

17%

7,836

Europe

16%

7,502

North America

Latin America & the Caribbean

11%

4,936

9%

4,108

Africa

2%

Oceania

2

Per capita target for staying within2 degrees of global temperature rise

SOURCE: World Resources Institute CAIT


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Energikonsumtion per person (Btu)


More fossil than we can burn

More fossil than we can burn

New research shows listed companies inflate the carbon bubble by $674billion a year. 60-80% of listed companies’ fossil fuel reserves are ‘unburnable’, but $6trillion each decade is spent to develop more

Source: Carbon Tracker: http://www.carbontracker.org/


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Tillväxt, primärenergi

OECD/EIS, 2013


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

OECD/EIS, 2013


Vatten som begr nsa n d e resurs

Vatten som begränsa(n)d(e) resurs

Picture Source: Dr. Daniel Vermeer, Director, Global Water Partnerships, The Coca-Cola Company


Southeast asia baseline water stress and power plants

Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants


Southeast asia long term change in water stress and power plants 2025 ipcc scenario a1b

Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Livsmedels(o)trygghet

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2011


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Jordbruksmark som strategisk resurs

Source: FAO/SOLAW


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Phosphorus Price Soared in 2007-2008

World Bank Commodity Price Data (2010)


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Konsumtion och förluster


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Prediction is very difficult,

especially about the future.

Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)


Generationsm let

Generationsmålet…..


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

”..lösa sina stora miljöproblem ”utan att orsaka ökade miljö- och hälsoproblem utanför Sveriges gränser”.


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg livsmedelsförsörjning”

DN Debatt, 31 december 2012


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

Vilken roll kommerpolitikenattspela?

Economist, April 2013

http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/business/reports

A resource-efficient Europe – Flagship initiative of the Europe 2020 Strategy (http://ec.europa.eu/resource-efficient-europe/)


H llbarhetsm len post 2015

Hållbarhetsmålen post 2015

  • Action-oriented

  • Concise

  • Easy to communicate

  • Limited in number

  • Aspirational

  • Global in nature

  • Universally applicable to all countries while taking into account different national realities, capacities and levels of development and respecting national policies and priorities.


Den internationella dimensionen i milj arbetet

  • "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

  • Einstein

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