Census based welfare estimates for small populations poverty and disability in uganda
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Census-Based Welfare Estimates for Small Populations Poverty and Disability in Uganda. HD week Hans Hoogeveen. Poverty profiles are limited. Poverty profiles are almost exclusively based on information available in LSMS-type surveys

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Census-Based Welfare Estimates for Small Populations Poverty and Disability in Uganda

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Census-Based Welfare Estimates for Small PopulationsPoverty and Disability in Uganda

HD week

Hans Hoogeveen


Poverty profiles are limited

  • Poverty profiles are almost exclusively based on information available in LSMS-type surveys

    • Education, age, housing characteristics, family size, spatial

  • Information for small target populations is absent

  • Statistical invisibility of poverty amongst vulnerable groups

    • People with disabilities

    • Child headed households

    • Ethnic minorities


Poverty profiles are limited

  • Illustration: regional poverty in Uganda in 1992, according to IHS

    RuralUrban

    P(0)Std.eP(0)Std.e

    Central 54.12.2 21.03.1

    East60.62.339.84.0

    North74.32.949.45.4

    West54.42.532.83.5

  • Why not combine surveys with other data sets?

  • E.g. combine with census data to get spatial detail


Disaggregating spatially

  • Uganda poverty map

  • Poverty estimates at LC3 level

  • Small standard errors


Disaggregating by disability

  • Some censuses also provide information on disability

    • Uganda (1991, 2002); Tanzania (2000)

    • Aruba (1991); Bahamas (1990, 2000); Bahrain (1991, 2001); Bangladesh (2001); Belize (1991, 2000);

    • Bermuda (1991); Botswana (1991)

  • Census manual defines disability as any condition which prevents a person from living a normal social and working live.

  • Head of household is considered disabled if this prevents him/her from being actively engaged in labor activities during the past week


Combining census and survey data

Elbers, Lanjouw & Lanjouw, econometrica 2003

  • Estimate with IHS :

  • Predict with census:

  • Calculate welfare stat:


Data

  • 1991 Population and Housing census

    • Long form with info on disability

    • Administered in urban areas only

    • 22,165 households with disabled head (5% of total)

    • 425,333 households with non-disabled head

  • 1992 IHS

    • Consumption aggregate

    • Information on disability is absent

    • 4 urban strata


Key statistics on welfare from census


Do census estimates replicate the survey?


Census-based poverty for (non)-disabled households


Census-based poverty for (non)-disabled households


Is poverty under-estimated?

  • Reconsider the model estimated in survey

  • Survey comprises no information on disability

    • Strictly speaking not correct, we also include census means and their interactions with household characteristics

  • Only correlates of disability are captured

    • Education, age, household size, female headed, marital stat.

    • Housing conditions, toilet, access to safe water

    • Location means capturing employment etc.

  • ’s are the same for disabled and non-disabled

    • E.g. return to education could be different


Is poverty under-estimated?

  • We estimate

  • The model we would like to estimate is:

  • If ’s would be negative, ch is negative for disabled hh’s

    • predicted consumption is too high, poverty is under-estimated

  • If ’s would be positive, ch is positive for disabled hh’s

    • predicted consumption is too low, poverty is over-estimated


Conclusion

  • Combining census and survey data gives new insights

    • Spatial poverty profile

    • Poverty amongst small target populations

  • Poverty amongst households with disabled head is 38% higher

  • Method can be used for other vulnerable groups

    • Child headed households

    • Elderly

    • Ethnic minorities

    • People in hazardous occupation

  • Caveat: estimates are an lower or upper bound


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