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SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY. John Ainley & Phillip McKenzie CEET Annual Conference Melbourne, 1 November 2007. OUTLINE. Focus Completing secondary school Participating in post-school education and training Context Participation levels

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Schooling and youth participation in education and society

SCHOOLING AND YOUTH PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION AND SOCIETY

John Ainley & Phillip McKenzie

CEET Annual Conference

Melbourne, 1 November 2007


Outline
OUTLINE

  • Focus

    • Completing secondary school

    • Participating in post-school education and training

  • Context

    • Participation levels

    • Employment opportunities

  • Conceptual framework

    • Competence in foundation skills

    • Attitudes

    • Intentions

  • Results

    • Represented as paths of influence

  • Conclusion

    • Earlier school outcomes matter

    • Earlier school outcomes can be changed


Context static school completion rates
Context:static school completion rates

  • Apparent retention rates to Year 12 static since 1991

  • Three students in four complete secondary school

  • Variation by:

    • Proficiency in foundation skills

    • Socioeconomic background

    • Sex

    • Indigenous status



Context jobs and qualifications

2500 25-34 year-olds

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Professionals

Labourers etc

Tradespersons etc

Associate Professionals

Advanced Clerical/Service

Interm. Clerical/Sales/Srvce

Interm. Production/Transport

Elemen. Clerical/Sales/Srvce

Managers and Administrators

1997-8

2005-6

2013-4

Context: jobs and qualifications

Fastest growth is in jobs requiring post-school qualifications

Employment growth

2003-2006:

- post-school quals:

+3.8% p.a.

-without quals:

0.4% p.a.

Source: Shah & Burke (2006)


Year 12 completion and post school outcomes
Year 12 completion and post-school outcomes 25-34 year-olds

  • Completing Year 12 has a positive effect on labour force participation, employment & earnings controlling for other factors

    -- the impact is greater for females

  • Completing Year 12 has a positive impact on career satisfaction and general life satisfaction

  • Educational attainment has a positive impact on health (also linked to labour force participation)

    Source: Hillman (2005); Productivity Commission (2007)


Conceptual framework year 12 participation
Conceptual framework: 25-34 year-oldsYear 12 participation

Year 12

Participation

(Intention)

  • Background

  • Home Locations

  • Language at home

  • Parents’ Education

  • SES

  • Gender

b

a

Year12

Participation

c

Attitudes to School

  • Grade 9 achievement

  • Literacy

  • Numeracy


Conceptual framework tertiary education participation
Conceptual framework: 25-34 year-oldstertiary education participation

  • Background

  • Home Locations

  • Language at home

  • Parents’ Education

  • SES

  • Gender

Year 12

Participation

c

Tertiary

Education

Attitudes to School

b

a

  • Grade 9 achievement

  • Literacy

  • Numeracy

Tertiary

Education

(Intention)


Data 25-34 year-olds

  • Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY)

  • Sample

    • Year 9 in 1995

    • National representative sample

    • 13,000 students from 300 schools

    • 72% retained to 1998 (the year of Year 12)

  • Initial data collection in schools

    • Tests of reading and mathematics – reliability > 0.80

    • Questionnaire

      • Attitudes – reliability > 0.93

      • Intentions

      • Background

  • Annual surveys by mail and telephone

    • experiences in education training and work

    • participation in social and community activities

    • attainments and accomplishments


Results year 12
Results: Year 12 25-34 year-olds

Grade 12

Participation

(Intention)

-0.18***

0.32***

Non-Metro

LBOTE

0.97***

-0.20***

Parents’ Education

0.20**

0.15***

Grade 12

Participation

0.45***

SES

0.38***

0.10***

Female

0.39***

0.21***

Attitudes to School

0.30***

0.14***

Tertiary

Education

Year 9 Literacy

Year 9 Numeracy


Results tertiary education
Results: 25-34 year-oldstertiary education

Non-Metro

Year 12

Participation

0.39***

LBOTE

0.24***

Tertiary

Education

Parents’ Education

0.35***

0.32***

0.17**

SES

0.05***

0.07**

Female

0.16***

0.61***

Attitudes to School

0.16***

Tertiary

Education

(Intention)

0.17***

Year 9 Literacy

0.23***

Year 9 Numeracy


Conclusions year 12
Conclusions: Year 12 25-34 year-olds

Other things equal:

  • attitudes to school predict intention to continue to Year 12;

  • intention to continue to Year 12 predicts actual participation;

  • effect of attitudes is mediated through intentions

  • literacy and numeracy influence Year 12 participation directly, as well as through intentions

  • social background factors operate through intentions rather than directly


Conclusions post school education
Conclusions: 25-34 year-oldspost-school education

Other things equal:

  • attitudes to school predict intention to continue to post-school education;

  • intention to continue predicts actual participation;

  • effects of attitudes is mediated through intentions

  • literacy and numeracy influence tertiary participation directly, as well as through intentions

    But

    The effects of attitudes and intentions are less strong for tertiary education than university education


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