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Plan. 1) Introducci
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1. Evaluación de la Competitividad y el Tipo de Cambio
2. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices de Precios o Costos y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
3. Que es la “Competitividad” Internacional de una Economía? En el largo plazo, la competitividad de una economía se define como su capacidad de mejorar los estandares de vida de la población (capacidad de crecimiento)
En el corto plazo, la “competitividad” de una economía se entiende como su capacidad de exportar bienes y servicios al resto del mundo.
La atención se centra en la cuenta corriente y en su evolución:
competitividad definida en terminos de precios relativos
problemas estructurales que afectan la competitividad (los costos y la rentabilidad de los exportadores)
In this lecture, we distinguish between short-run and long-run aspects of competitiveness.
When we assess competitiveness from a short-run perspective the focus is primarily on price and cost competitiveness (although the case study will include at some examples of how to supplement this information)
An assessment of longer-run competitiveness involves attention to issues that contribute to longer-run productivity growth (e.g. infrastructure, institution, labor market flexibility, etc.). In the long-run it is assumed that the real exchange rate has converged to its equilibrium level.
This also provides a structure for the lecture; we will first address measures of price competitiveness – this will take up most of our time – these other aspects are more appropriate in a sources of growth lecture.
This distinction also has an important policy implication: an easy conclusion to draw is that a weak export performance is due to deteriorating price competitiveness (perhaps leading to policy recommendations to devalue in a fixed exchange rate regime) however a weak export performance could reflect other non-price aspects of competitiveness, in which case an exchange rate depreciation (or devaluation) will not solve the problem. Again to stress, any careful assessment of the competitiveness of an economy will involves the traditional measures of competitiveness interpreted with caution and supplemented by other additional sources of information.
[Three definitions of competitiveness in the long-run:
“ The degree to which a country can, under free trade and fair market conditions, produce goods and services which meet the test of international markets, while simultaneously maintaining and expanding the real incomes of its people over the long term” OECD
“ The ability of an economy to provide its people with high and rising standards of living and high rates of employment on a sustainable basis” European Commission
“ A country’s ability to maintain high rates of growth and employment in the medium term” World Economic Forum]
Source: The Baltics: Competitiveness on the Eve of EU Acession
In this lecture, we distinguish between short-run and long-run aspects of competitiveness.
When we assess competitiveness from a short-run perspective the focus is primarily on price and cost competitiveness (although the case study will include at some examples of how to supplement this information)
An assessment of longer-run competitiveness involves attention to issues that contribute to longer-run productivity growth (e.g. infrastructure, institution, labor market flexibility, etc.). In the long-run it is assumed that the real exchange rate has converged to its equilibrium level.
This also provides a structure for the lecture; we will first address measures of price competitiveness – this will take up most of our time – these other aspects are more appropriate in a sources of growth lecture.
This distinction also has an important policy implication: an easy conclusion to draw is that a weak export performance is due to deteriorating price competitiveness (perhaps leading to policy recommendations to devalue in a fixed exchange rate regime) however a weak export performance could reflect other non-price aspects of competitiveness, in which case an exchange rate depreciation (or devaluation) will not solve the problem. Again to stress, any careful assessment of the competitiveness of an economy will involves the traditional measures of competitiveness interpreted with caution and supplemented by other additional sources of information.
[Three definitions of competitiveness in the long-run:
“ The degree to which a country can, under free trade and fair market conditions, produce goods and services which meet the test of international markets, while simultaneously maintaining and expanding the real incomes of its people over the long term” OECD
“ The ability of an economy to provide its people with high and rising standards of living and high rates of employment on a sustainable basis” European Commission
“ A country’s ability to maintain high rates of growth and employment in the medium term” World Economic Forum]
Source: The Baltics: Competitiveness on the Eve of EU Acession
4. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices de Precios o Costos y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
5. Medición de Competitidad Definida en Terminos de Precios Relativos A) Tipo de cambio nominal bilateral
B) Tipo de cambio real bilateral
C) Tipo de cambio nominal efectivo
D) Tipo de cambio real efectivo Definición
Computo
Interpretación From the view point of short-run competitiveness - the ability to export over the next few years - price competitiveness is clearly fundamental, although as already discussed it is not the only determinant.
A key challenge in our interpretation of any of the available measures of price competitiveness is to distinguish between those changes that are potentially damaging to economic performance and those that reflect positive developments.
To elaborate, excess wage demands lead to increasing prices with a negative impact of ability to compete in international markets.
On the other hand, with innovation an economy could start to produce more higher value-added goods, as a result the relative price rises; a narrow interpretation of any of these indicators could lead to a conclusion that there has been a loss of competitiveness. From a macro-diagnostics perspective, this suggests that we should compliment any analysis of price measures of competitiveness with data on productivity.
The most important price is the exchange rate; here we list four exchange rate “measures” that provide information on the price competitiveness in the economy; the measures differ in terms of the ease of understanding and their informational content.
The lecture will consider each of these measures in turn, addressing the definition (conceptual), computation and finally the interpretation, that is, how the computed measure relates to the concept. We will ask what are the assumptions underlying this interpretation and the caveats of their use.
The first two are nominal variables – and therefore will only matter to the determination of real variables to the extent that there is some nominal rigidity in the economy. We will review the basic concepts and also discuss some technical/statistical issues involved in the computation of the NEER.
The lecture will spend some time on the definition of the real exchange rate – here we will have to discuss some theory but it is necessary for the later discussions and to further our understanding.
Next we turn our attention to the REER; these indicators are familiar and widely used. However, there are a large number of issues in both the compilation and the interpretation. There are a number of different REER indicators available to us and we will review the relative strengths and weaknesses of each. The discussion will include examples of the interpretation of the various measures of REER; we will see examples of when the differing measures tell different stories. From the view point of short-run competitiveness - the ability to export over the next few years - price competitiveness is clearly fundamental, although as already discussed it is not the only determinant.
A key challenge in our interpretation of any of the available measures of price competitiveness is to distinguish between those changes that are potentially damaging to economic performance and those that reflect positive developments.
To elaborate, excess wage demands lead to increasing prices with a negative impact of ability to compete in international markets.
On the other hand, with innovation an economy could start to produce more higher value-added goods, as a result the relative price rises; a narrow interpretation of any of these indicators could lead to a conclusion that there has been a loss of competitiveness. From a macro-diagnostics perspective, this suggests that we should compliment any analysis of price measures of competitiveness with data on productivity.
The most important price is the exchange rate; here we list four exchange rate “measures” that provide information on the price competitiveness in the economy; the measures differ in terms of the ease of understanding and their informational content.
The lecture will consider each of these measures in turn, addressing the definition (conceptual), computation and finally the interpretation, that is, how the computed measure relates to the concept. We will ask what are the assumptions underlying this interpretation and the caveats of their use.
The first two are nominal variables – and therefore will only matter to the determination of real variables to the extent that there is some nominal rigidity in the economy. We will review the basic concepts and also discuss some technical/statistical issues involved in the computation of the NEER.
The lecture will spend some time on the definition of the real exchange rate – here we will have to discuss some theory but it is necessary for the later discussions and to further our understanding.
Next we turn our attention to the REER; these indicators are familiar and widely used. However, there are a large number of issues in both the compilation and the interpretation. There are a number of different REER indicators available to us and we will review the relative strengths and weaknesses of each. The discussion will include examples of the interpretation of the various measures of REER; we will see examples of when the differing measures tell different stories.
6. A) Tipo de Cambio Nominal Bilateral El tipo de cambio nominal bilateral es el precio de una moneda expresado en términos de otra moneda.
Dos Usos o Convenciones:
E (Pesos/Dólar): Precio de la moneda extranjera (USA) expresado en términos de la moneda domestica (México)
R (Dólar/Peso): Precio de la moneda domestica (México) expresado en términos de la moneda extranjera Let’s begin with some basics.............
The bilateral nominal exchange rate provides a simple measure of competitiveness because, other things equal, an appreciation of a country’s currency raises the relative price of its exports and decreases the relative price of its imports.
Other things equal is important here because the exchange rate is a nominal variable and as such will only have an impact on real variables (real exports, real imports, real GDP growth, etc.) to the extent that there is a nominal rigidity elsewhere: that is, fluctuations in the nominal exchange will have an impact on competitiveness (defined here as the relative price of imports or the relative price of exports) only if there is no change in prices in response to the exchange rate change.
This is an important caveat and for this reason looking at the nominal exchange rate alone is not especially useful: this should be obvious.
(However, a frequently forgotten corollary is that changes in the nominal exchange rate alone will not solve a competitiveness problem!)
There are two conventions....... We will use E in this lecture.Let’s begin with some basics.............
The bilateral nominal exchange rate provides a simple measure of competitiveness because, other things equal, an appreciation of a country’s currency raises the relative price of its exports and decreases the relative price of its imports.
Other things equal is important here because the exchange rate is a nominal variable and as such will only have an impact on real variables (real exports, real imports, real GDP growth, etc.) to the extent that there is a nominal rigidity elsewhere: that is, fluctuations in the nominal exchange will have an impact on competitiveness (defined here as the relative price of imports or the relative price of exports) only if there is no change in prices in response to the exchange rate change.
This is an important caveat and for this reason looking at the nominal exchange rate alone is not especially useful: this should be obvious.
(However, a frequently forgotten corollary is that changes in the nominal exchange rate alone will not solve a competitiveness problem!)
There are two conventions....... We will use E in this lecture.
7. The purpose of these next two slides is to illustrate the usefulness of creating a single measure....
In this first slide we ask: What can we say about the US dollar over the period 1990 to 2003?
The chart plots the US$ exchange rate against 4 important trading partners (did not include Mexico in the plot because it makes all other series look like flat lines.....)
Abstracting from issues regarding changes in price in response to changes in the exchange rate, can we draw any conclusions about the competitiveness of the US economy over this period?
From the information given in the first chart, it is not clear whether the US gained or lost competitiveness in international trade over the period 1990 – 2004. We need more information.... at a minimum we would like to have an answer to the following questions: how important relatively speaking are each of these trading partners? What about other countries?
The NEER brings together all this information and we see the strengthening of the dollar over second half of the 1990s, followed by a dollar deprecation.
The purpose of these next two slides is to illustrate the usefulness of creating a single measure....
In this first slide we ask: What can we say about the US dollar over the period 1990 to 2003?
The chart plots the US$ exchange rate against 4 important trading partners (did not include Mexico in the plot because it makes all other series look like flat lines.....)
Abstracting from issues regarding changes in price in response to changes in the exchange rate, can we draw any conclusions about the competitiveness of the US economy over this period?
From the information given in the first chart, it is not clear whether the US gained or lost competitiveness in international trade over the period 1990 – 2004. We need more information.... at a minimum we would like to have an answer to the following questions: how important relatively speaking are each of these trading partners? What about other countries?
The NEER brings together all this information and we see the strengthening of the dollar over second half of the 1990s, followed by a dollar deprecation.
8. Por Que Nos Interesa Evaluar el Tipo de Cambio? Los tipos de cambio tienen impacto en el comercio internacional y en la cuenta corriente en la medida en que afectan a los precios relativos entre los bienes transables domésticos y extranjeros.
Los tipos de cambio tienen influencia en variables macroeconómicas (por ej. se utilizan como ancla nominal en programas de estabilización monetaria: las “Tablitas” de los 70 en el cono sur Latinoamericano (Chile, Argentina, Uruguay) ).
Los tipos de cambio impactan la asignación domestica de recursos. El tipo de cambio real refleja el precio relativo de bienes transables y no transables internacionalmente. Esto le importa al hacedor de políticas, entre otras razones porque la producción de bienes no transables es mas intensiva en esfuerzo laboral: cambios abruptos del tipo de cambio real afectan el empleo/desempleo en el corto plazo.
Los tipos de cambio pueden causar efectos de balance en las firmas y familias domesticas, y en el sistema bancario local. Cuando hay alta dolarización financiera, firmas y bancos domésticos se financian con deuda denominada en moneda extranjera pero obtienen sus ingresos en moneda local. Esto los expone a riesgos cambiarios: una depreciación de la moneda local aumenta el tamaño de la deuda (medida en moneda local) y baja el patrimonio neto de la firma o banco. Una depreciación fuerte puede causar la quiebra de firmas y bancos.
9. Ejemplo: Tipo de cambio inicial: 1.3 ($/EU); Tipo de cambio final: 1.5 ($/EU).
“El euro se apreció con respecto al US dólar o el dólar se depreció con respecto al euro”
“El precio en dólares de un euro subió de 1.3 a 1.5 ($/EU) y el precio de un US dólar en euros cayó de 0.769 (EU/$) a 0.667 (EU/$)” Tipo de Cambio y Competitividad
10. Una depreciación nominal tiene efectos sobre la competitividad porque solo si los precios nominales de los bienes domésticos se mantienen constantes o no aumentan en la misma proporción que el tipo de cambio => solo si la depreciación es también “real”.
11. Interpretación:
Con 1 $ se pueden comprar (1/E) Euros. Con 1 Euro se pueden comprar (1/P*) bienes Europeos. Entonces, con 1 $ se pueden comprar (1/EP*) bienes Europeos.
1 $ también permite comprar 1/P bienes Americanos.
Se sigue que (1/P) bienes Americanos se intercambian por (1/EP*) bienes Europeos: el precio de un bien Europeo en términos de bienes Americanos es el tipo de cambio real (RER)
El tipo de cambio real (RER) es el precio real en dólares de un Euro real.
B) Tipo de Cambio Real Bilateral
12. Si el tipo de cambio real (RER) aumenta (se deprecia), los bines Europeos se hacen mas caros en términos de bienes americanos (los bienes Americanos se hacen mas baratos).
Por esto, una depreciación real del US dólar contra el euro aumenta las exportaciones de USA y baja las importaciones provenientes de Europa.
13. C) Tipo de Cambio Nominal Efectivo Si la moneda domestica se deprecia con respecto a la moneda de un socio comercial y se aprecia con respecto a la moneda de otro socio: Como se vera afectada la competitividad ?
Las medidas “efectivas” tienen en cuenta que los países comercian con muchos otros países.
El tipo de cambio nominal efectivo es un índice promedio ponderado de tipos de cambios bilaterales; donde las ponderaciones de los distintos socios comerciales se calculan en base a la intensidad del comercio con ese país (exportaciones, importaciones, o comercio total). The NEER concept extends the bilateral nominal exchange rate concept to take into account that countries have several trading partners.
The NEER concept extends the bilateral nominal exchange rate concept to take into account that countries have several trading partners.
14. The NEER brings together all this information and we see the strengthening of the dollar over second half of the 1990s, followed by a dollar deprecation.
The NEER brings together all this information and we see the strengthening of the dollar over second half of the 1990s, followed by a dollar deprecation.
15. Como se Calculan los Tipos de Cambio Nominales Efectivos ? There are three main choices to be made when constructing the NEER
Which currencies?
Which weighting system?
Which formula?
We will look at each of these in turn.
Source: BIS Economic Papers #39There are three main choices to be made when constructing the NEER
Which currencies?
Which weighting system?
Which formula?
We will look at each of these in turn.
Source: BIS Economic Papers #39
16. Elección de Monedas Que se Deben Incluir
Competidores Actuales y Potenciales
En los Mercados Domestico y Externo
Puede excluirse: monedas no convertibles; monedas con inflación alta What currencies should be included in the basket?
To a certain extent, the question of interest determines the answer: if we want to know the impact of exchange rate movements on imports, we should include currencies of countries we import from; if we want to know the effect of nominal exchange rate movements on foreign debt, then only the currencies of our foreign borrowings need be included.
Most commonly the issue of interest is trade and therefore indices are constructed using the main trading partners.
One possible option is to include all countries that are either actual or potential competitors in both the domestic and foreign markets. Typically, a smaller subset is selected, for examples,
IFS: weights... number of countries....
Australia: in computing the Trade Weighted Index (TWI) uses enough countries to account for 90% of Australia’s two-way merchandise trade.
May exclude:
Currencies that are linked; assuming an appropriate re-weighting is carried out.
Nonconvertible currencies or those with multiple exchange rates
High inflation currencies; eventually the index could be dominated by a single high inflation country diminishing its usefulness
What currencies should be included in the basket?
To a certain extent, the question of interest determines the answer: if we want to know the impact of exchange rate movements on imports, we should include currencies of countries we import from; if we want to know the effect of nominal exchange rate movements on foreign debt, then only the currencies of our foreign borrowings need be included.
Most commonly the issue of interest is trade and therefore indices are constructed using the main trading partners.
One possible option is to include all countries that are either actual or potential competitors in both the domestic and foreign markets. Typically, a smaller subset is selected, for examples,
IFS: weights... number of countries....
Australia: in computing the Trade Weighted Index (TWI) uses enough countries to account for 90% of Australia’s two-way merchandise trade.
May exclude:
Currencies that are linked; assuming an appropriate re-weighting is carried out.
Nonconvertible currencies or those with multiple exchange rates
High inflation currencies; eventually the index could be dominated by a single high inflation country diminishing its usefulness
17. Flujo Ilustrativo de Bienes Will use this flow of goods to illustrate in a simple 3 country example, the different weights implied by different weighting schemes.
This example is about ‘goods’: in many cases only trade in manufacturing goods are used to compute weights (and to ulc in the case of REER). It is not typically the case that trade in services is included – although services represent and increasing share of international trade.
Will use this flow of goods to illustrate in a simple 3 country example, the different weights implied by different weighting schemes.
This example is about ‘goods’: in many cases only trade in manufacturing goods are used to compute weights (and to ulc in the case of REER). It is not typically the case that trade in services is included – although services represent and increasing share of international trade.
18. Ponderaciones Basadas en Importaciones The first two are import weights and export weights: here the perspective is the US as the home country
The first two are import weights and export weights: here the perspective is the US as the home country
19. Ponderaciones Basadas en Exportaciones Note the difference in the weights compared to the use of import weights 48 v. 72.
Note the difference in the weights compared to the use of import weights 48 v. 72.
20. Ponderaciones Basadas en el Comercio Total In this third case, we combine the relative import and export weights
The next slide is an example of how differences between these three weighting schemes can make a difference in practice
– in this case Australia
In this third case, we combine the relative import and export weights
The next slide is an example of how differences between these three weighting schemes can make a difference in practice
– in this case Australia
21. Differences in regional trade patterns
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin October 2002
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_oct02/bu_1002_1.pdf
[NOTE: the text below has been pasted directly from the above publication]
The trade weights discussed above are based on the sum of Australia’s exports and imports to determine the overall two-way trade linkages with other countries. However, Australia’s pattern of trade varies quite widely in the relative regional composition of exports and imports. While some regions are clearly major trading partners because they are an important export destination, this does not necessarily mean that the region is a similarly important source of imports. The converse is generally true of regions that are important trading partners principally due to their dominance in supplying imports to Australia. Based on the data used to construct the latest trade weights, the Asia-Pacific region is the most important destination for Australian exports and the most important source of imports, even when Japan is excluded (Graph 3). While a large proportion of Australia’s resource exports of metal ores and coal are destined for Japan and smaller Asian countries, the basic manufactures and consumer goods that we import from the region hold a somewhat smaller relative share of total imports. The opposite is true for Europe and North America; imports from these regions are relatively more important than exports to them.
At times it may be instructive to take the regional composition of exports and imports into account when analysing multilateral exchange rate movements. In the past the Bank has made reference to export- and import-weighted exchange rate indices when there have been important divergences from the TWI.4 The most recent episode where this occurred was during the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98. At that time the devaluation of the currencies of Australia’s important export destinations in the Asian region led to an appreciation in the export-weighted index of the Australian dollar (Graph 4).
However, the shock to the Asia-Pacific region more widely meant that the Australian dollar was also subject to downward pressure, resulting in a fall in its value against the currencies of other advanced industrial countries. This was reflected in a depreciation of the exchange rate on an import-weighted basis.
The wedge that opened up between the indices over the course of 1997/98 is highlighted by the shaded area in Graph 4. Over this period, monthly movements in the indices diverged by up to 4 percentage points. However, such sharp disparities are rare and movements in the three exchange rate indices have subsequently shown only occasional small divergences.
Differences in regional trade patterns
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin October 2002
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_oct02/bu_1002_1.pdf
[NOTE: the text below has been pasted directly from the above publication]
The trade weights discussed above are based on the sum of Australia’s exports and imports to determine the overall two-way trade linkages with other countries. However, Australia’s pattern of trade varies quite widely in the relative regional composition of exports and imports. While some regions are clearly major trading partners because they are an important export destination, this does not necessarily mean that the region is a similarly important source of imports. The converse is generally true of regions that are important trading partners principally due to their dominance in supplying imports to Australia. Based on the data used to construct the latest trade weights, the Asia-Pacific region is the most important destination for Australian exports and the most important source of imports, even when Japan is excluded (Graph 3). While a large proportion of Australia’s resource exports of metal ores and coal are destined for Japan and smaller Asian countries, the basic manufactures and consumer goods that we import from the region hold a somewhat smaller relative share of total imports. The opposite is true for Europe and North America; imports from these regions are relatively more important than exports to them.
At times it may be instructive to take the regional composition of exports and imports into account when analysing multilateral exchange rate movements. In the past the Bank has made reference to export- and import-weighted exchange rate indices when there have been important divergences from the TWI.4 The most recent episode where this occurred was during the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98. At that time the devaluation of the currencies of Australia’s important export destinations in the Asian region led to an appreciation in the export-weighted index of the Australian dollar (Graph 4).
However, the shock to the Asia-Pacific region more widely meant that the Australian dollar was also subject to downward pressure, resulting in a fall in its value against the currencies of other advanced industrial countries. This was reflected in a depreciation of the exchange rate on an import-weighted basis.
The wedge that opened up between the indices over the course of 1997/98 is highlighted by the shaded area in Graph 4. Over this period, monthly movements in the indices diverged by up to 4 percentage points. However, such sharp disparities are rare and movements in the three exchange rate indices have subsequently shown only occasional small divergences.
22. Como Calcula el FMI los Tipos Efectivos en sus Estadisticas Financieras Internacionales (IFS)? La Medida captura los efectos de terceros mercados
Nuevas medidas basadas en nuevas ponderaciones (IMF WP/05/99)
In words this formula: says that the weights are the sum of the import weights, export weights and the third market share
IMF publishes two measures:
ULC
CPI
Coverage of the CPI based measure is more extensive
* Partner countries:
ULC: only industrial countries
CPI: all most all countries
Coverage
ULC: manufacturing
CPI: manufacturing, commodities and tourism
Oil not includedIn words this formula: says that the weights are the sum of the import weights, export weights and the third market share
IMF publishes two measures:
ULC
CPI
Coverage of the CPI based measure is more extensive
* Partner countries:
ULC: only industrial countries
CPI: all most all countries
Coverage
ULC: manufacturing
CPI: manufacturing, commodities and tourism
Oil not included
23. Formula Usada para Calcular el Pomedio The weighted average can be computed using either an arithmetic average or a geometric average formula. (There are also other options – these two are the most common.)
The geometric average is preferred for both statistical and theoretical reasons. Next slide
The weighted average can be computed using either an arithmetic average or a geometric average formula. (There are also other options – these two are the most common.)
The geometric average is preferred for both statistical and theoretical reasons. Next slide
24. D) Tipo de Cambio Real Efectivo (REER) Se define como el tipo de cambio real bilateral, pero a diferencia de este, tanto el tipo de cambio nominal como el índice de precios extranjero se calculan en terminos efectivos (como promedios ponderados).
25. Calculo del REER looks familiar to above with an additional non-trivial assumption: choice of price index.looks familiar to above with an additional non-trivial assumption: choice of price index.
26. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices de Precios o Costos y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
27. El Tipo de Cambio Real Dos interpretaciones fundamentales de Variaciones en el Tipo de Cambio Real:
A) Desviaciones de la Paridad del Poder de Compra
B) Precio relativo de los bienes transables y no transables The real exchange rate is the most commonly used measure of the competitiveness of the traded goods sector. Despite the common usage, a certain amount of confusion exists. In part because of measurement issues, which we will come to later in the lecture, but also because of even in a theoretical sense we have two concepts: one based on deviations from PPP while a second, the relative price of tradeables and non-tradeables, is derived from theoretical models of resource allocation in open economy models.
Confusion arises when these concepts are frequently used interchangeably without a full appreciation of the underlying assumptions that are required for a measured changes in one concept to be reflected in a parallel manner in the other concept, i.e., for both to move by same amount in the same direction.
We will look at each of these concepts individually and then look at a reconciliation.
The real exchange rate is the most commonly used measure of the competitiveness of the traded goods sector. Despite the common usage, a certain amount of confusion exists. In part because of measurement issues, which we will come to later in the lecture, but also because of even in a theoretical sense we have two concepts: one based on deviations from PPP while a second, the relative price of tradeables and non-tradeables, is derived from theoretical models of resource allocation in open economy models.
Confusion arises when these concepts are frequently used interchangeably without a full appreciation of the underlying assumptions that are required for a measured changes in one concept to be reflected in a parallel manner in the other concept, i.e., for both to move by same amount in the same direction.
We will look at each of these concepts individually and then look at a reconciliation.
28. Ley de un Precio Único (LOP) La ley establece: los precios no deben permitir oportunidades de arbitraje a través del comercio internacional (beneficios extraordinarios libres de riesgo).
Ignorando costos de transportes y barreras comerciales, bienes idénticos se deben vender en distintos países a un precio único (cuando son expresados en la misma moneda--convertidos con los tipo de cambio nominales).
Esta ley conecta los precios de bienes transables en distintos países con el valor del tipo de cambio nominal
donde Pi es el precio domestico del bien i ($, en moneda domestica); Pi* es el precio del bien i en el exterior (Fgn, en moneda extranjera) y E es el tipo de cambio nominal ($/Fgn)
29. Paridad del Poder de Compra Absoluta: el tipo de cambio nominal entre las monedas de dos países debe ser igual a la razón de sus niveles de precios. Los “niveles de precios” de los países deben igualarse cuando se expresan en una misma moneda:
donde P es el precio domestico de una canasta de referencia de bienes y servicios (en moneda domestica), P* es el precio de la misma canasta en el extranjero (Fgn, en moneda extranjera) y E es el tipo de cambio nominal. Paridad del Poder de Compra (PPP) Absoluta
30. LOP, PPP Absoluta y RER PPP Absoluta se aplica al nivel general de precios (precio compuesto de los bienes y servicios de la canasta de referencia)
LOP se aplica a bienes específicos (transables)
Si la LOP se cumple para cada bien y servicio, entonces la PPP también se cumple. Pero lo opuesto no es necesariamente cierto.
Que se cumpla la LOP para cada bien/servicio es condición suficiente pero no necesaria para que se cumpla la PPP: aun si la LOP no se satiface para cada bien i, al promediar muchos bienes la PPP podría satisfacerse.
PPP implica que el tipo de cambio real (RER basado en la misma canasta de bienes y servicios) es siempre igual a 1:
31. Tipo de Cambio Real de México 1970-2002
32. 1) Existencia de costos de transporte y de transacción (ej. tarifas): estos no son lo suficientemente volátiles como para explicar las fluctuaciones observadas en RER.
2) Existencia de bienes y servicios no transables—esto es mas relevante empíricamente: para estos bienes/servicios, el costo de transporte es demasiado alto en relación a su valor. En estos casos, no deberíamos esperar que se cumpla la LOP. Desviaciones de PPP de Corto Plazo: Explicaciones
34. PPP Relativa La tasa de depreciación de una moneda con respecto a otra durante un periodo es igual al diferencial de inflación observado entre ambas monedas.
Ejemplo: Euro y US dólar. Si PPP relativa se satisface, entonces:
Nota: PPP absoluta implica PPP relativa, pero lo opuesto no es cierto: PPP relativa puede cumplirse aun cuando PPP absoluta no se cumple
35. 1) Fluctuaciones del RER indican cambios en los precios relativos de bienes transables producidos en dos países: esto es posible cuando hay desviaciones de la ley de un precio en mercados transables (ej. por diferenciación de productos o poder de mercado de los productores).
2) Fluctuaciones del RER indican cambios en los precios de bienes transables en relación a los bienes no transables: por ejemplo, una depreciación el RER indica un aumento en el precio de los transables vis-à-vis los no transables.
Las medidas estándar de RER incorporan ambos efectos. En países desarrollados, cambios en el RER reflejan mayormente cambios en precios relativos de transables (interpretación 1). En países en desarrollo, cambios en el RER reflejan mayormente cambios en precios relativos entre transables y no transables.
Dos Interpretaciones del Tipo de Cambio Real (RER)
36.
En logs:
Suponiendo que los índices de precios son un promedio geométrico de bienes transables y no transables:
Entonces: Dos Interpretaciones del Tipo de Cambio Real (RER) (cont.)
37. El RER tiene 3 componentes:
El precio relativo de los transables
El precio relativo de los no transables en términos de los transables en la economía extranjera
El precio relativo de los no transables en términos de los transables en la economía domestica
Considere 2 casos:
1. Si la ley de un precio único se cumple para todos los bienes (transables y no transables) y las canastas de los índices de precios son idénticas => se cumple la paridad del poder de compra => RER=1; log RER =0
2. Si la ley de un precio único se cumple solo para transables => el RER esta determinado solo por el precio relativo de los bienes transables y no transables
38. Observe que si usamos una medida del índice de precios extranjeros que capture solo los precios transables, y una medida del índice de precios domésticos que incluya tanto transables como no transables, estaremos midiendo (PT/PN) (si la ley de un precio se cumple aproximadamente para transables).
Es practica estándar usar precios mayoristas o Wholesale Price Index (WPI) para medir P* porque incluye menos servicios (no transables), y el índice de precios al consumidor o Consumer Price Index (CPI) para medir P.
RER como Precio Relativo de Bienes Domesticos Transables y No Transables
39. RER: Mas Casos Particulares Típicamente, los precios de los transables no se igualan. Si la variación entre países en los precios de no transables son pequeñas:
medida de “competitividad en precios”
Case one is sometimes referred to as a dependent economy or Scandinavian modelCase one is sometimes referred to as a dependent economy or Scandinavian model
40. Modelo de mark-up:
Continue asumiendo que los precios de los transables no se igualan y que la variación en no transables es pequeña. Sustituya en la formula de RER2 anterior para obtener:
El RER depende de los salarios y de la productividad: medida de “competitividad de costos”
RER: Mas Casos Particulares (cont.)
41. Con mas de 2 países, nuestras exportaciones compiten con las exportaciones de otros países en terceros mercados RER: Mas Casos Particulares (cont.)
42. El Efecto Balassa-Samuelson Los países con mayor crecimiento de productividad (sesgada hacia el sector de bienes transables) tienen mayor crecimiento de los precios domésticos (apreciación real de la moneda domestica)—mayor encarecimiento de los bienes no transables
Suponga que los precios de bienes transables se igualan entre países; entonces:
RER refleja diferencias en los pecios relativos de transables a no transables
43. Que determina el precio relativo de los no transables ?
El nivel de precios relativos depende de las intensidades de capital y de la diferencia en el crecimiento de la productvidad entre los sectores transables y no transables.
Entonces, asumiendo
Log differentiating and using the equation derived earlier we get the result here: assuming that the non-traded sector is more labor intensive than the traded sector, the home country will experience a real appreciation if its productivity growth advantage in traded goods sector exceeds its productivity-growth advantage in the non-traded sector.
Log differentiating and using the equation derived earlier we get the result here: assuming that the non-traded sector is more labor intensive than the traded sector, the home country will experience a real appreciation if its productivity growth advantage in traded goods sector exceeds its productivity-growth advantage in the non-traded sector.
44. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
45. Elección de Índices de Precios o Costos
Medidas basadas en índices de precios agregados
Índices de precios al consumidor
Índices de precios mayoristas o al productor
Valores unitarios de exportación
Deflactores del PIB
Costos laborales unitarios (CLU)
46. RER-Indices de Precios al Consumidor Ventajas:
Bastante comparable entre países
Razonablemente precisa
Disponible frequentemente
Desventajas:
Incluye bienes transables y no transables con distintos pesos
excluye bienes de capital
Esta afectada por impuestos, subsidios & controles de precios
Disadvantages: includes traded goods with different weights....how big is this as a disadvantage?
- Greater if weights are different in different countries and changing over time.
- However, this might be useful to the extent that the indicator could pick up terms of trade shocks
Disadvantages: includes traded goods with different weights....how big is this as a disadvantage?
- Greater if weights are different in different countries and changing over time.
- However, this might be useful to the extent that the indicator could pick up terms of trade shocks
47. RER-Deflactor del PIB Ventajas:
Medida amplia de costos agregados domésticos
No tiene los sesgos asociados al CPI
Desventajas:
Disponibilidad a frecuencias mas bajas (trimestral)
Sujeta a revisiones frecuentes Avoid bias issues with the CPI – matters if the amount of bias is different in different countries – the difference in the bias in the CPI will accumulate over time. (Countries with more bias are those where the consumption bundle (composition and types of goods) is changing rapidly over time (but the CPI basket is not) and also countries undergoing significant structural change so that there are significant relative price shocks.
Avoid bias issues with the CPI – matters if the amount of bias is different in different countries – the difference in the bias in the CPI will accumulate over time. (Countries with more bias are those where the consumption bundle (composition and types of goods) is changing rapidly over time (but the CPI basket is not) and also countries undergoing significant structural change so that there are significant relative price shocks.
48. RER y Precio Relativo de Transables: Uso de Precios Mayoristas (WPI) o al Productor (PPI) Ventajas:
Mayor aproximación a precios transables que el CPI
Desventajas:
Cobertura difiere mucho entre países
La calidad estadística es cuestionable en muchos casos
Excesivo énfasis en productos semi-manufacturados These indicators typically show much less movement over time than REER-CPI
Discontinued by the IMF
Note also that the over-emphasis on raw commodities and semi-manufactured goods is primarily relevant for the REER-WPI
These indicators typically show much less movement over time than REER-CPI
Discontinued by the IMF
Note also that the over-emphasis on raw commodities and semi-manufactured goods is primarily relevant for the REER-WPI
49. RER y Precio Relativo de Transables: Uso de Precios de Exportaciones Ventajas:
Medida directa de precios transables (exportables)
Desventajas:
La competencia internacional tiende a comprimir los diferenciales de precios
Excluye bienes “potencialmente” transables
Diferencias en composición de exportaciones entre países y a través del tiempo international competition tends to compress price differentials => prices are not very responsive to profitability shifts in the traded goods sector
Fund does not compute these indicators any more
Could also just simply use the price of exports – this will be especially important in the case of primary commodity producers.... And serves as a good complementary measure to use in conjunction with the traditional REER measures.international competition tends to compress price differentials => prices are not very responsive to profitability shifts in the traded goods sector
Fund does not compute these indicators any more
Could also just simply use the price of exports – this will be especially important in the case of primary commodity producers.... And serves as a good complementary measure to use in conjunction with the traditional REER measures.
50. RER y Precio Relativo de Transables a No Transables RER “Interno”: razón de precios domésticos de
Transables y no transables
Razón de bienes exportables a no transables y de importables a no transables
51. RER y Competitividad de Costos Labor hoarding over the business cycles introduces distortions into ULC that are unrelated to competitiveness. Note IFS tries to eliminate distortions caused by the business cycle by using the HP filter and at the end of the data series forecasts of productivity (forecasts are used because HP is backward looking).
Implicit assumption: unchanged capital-labor ratio
Example: an increase in ULC => decrease in profit per unit output but if K/Y has fallen by more then profits per unit of capital increasedLabor hoarding over the business cycles introduces distortions into ULC that are unrelated to competitiveness. Note IFS tries to eliminate distortions caused by the business cycle by using the HP filter and at the end of the data series forecasts of productivity (forecasts are used because HP is backward looking).
Implicit assumption: unchanged capital-labor ratio
Example: an increase in ULC => decrease in profit per unit output but if K/Y has fallen by more then profits per unit of capital increased
52.
Ventajas:
Bastante disponible para muchos países
Desventajas:
Su interpretación como indicador de competitividad se basa en el supuesto de que las razones capital-trabajo no cambian sustancialmente
Usa bienes manufacturados como proxy para bienes transables
55. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
56. Evaluando la Competitividad Un análisis cuidadoso requiere:
A) el calculo de varias medidas de RER
B) su comparación con respecto a un “benchmark”: 1) competitividad en algún período pasado; 2) Nivel de “Equilibrio”
B) la evaluación de indicadores no basados en precios: tasas de crecimiento de las exportaciones; cuotas de mercado mundial de las exportaciones; crecimiento de la productividad
Changes in REER can be interpreted as reflecting changes in competitiveness of an economy but a careful analysis will include several REER measures and other indicators:
For example, we need to also look at productivity developments – this will be part of the story.
In countries where there is a significant share of primary commodities in exports we would also want to take into consideration any developments in commodity prices. Here is another example: Canada
We should also consider what is the equilibrium.... ‘ this is a benchmark’ are we returning to an initial level or to a new equilibrium: See lecture by Peter Isard.Changes in REER can be interpreted as reflecting changes in competitiveness of an economy but a careful analysis will include several REER measures and other indicators:
For example, we need to also look at productivity developments – this will be part of the story.
In countries where there is a significant share of primary commodities in exports we would also want to take into consideration any developments in commodity prices. Here is another example: Canada
We should also consider what is the equilibrium.... ‘ this is a benchmark’ are we returning to an initial level or to a new equilibrium: See lecture by Peter Isard.
57. Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio Distintos conceptos de RER
Que significa un tipo de cambio real de equilibrio de largo plazo (LERER)?
Cuales son las variables “fundamentales” que determinan el LERER
Como podemos estimar el LERER ?
58. LERER Definición:
De acuerdo a Nurkse (1945):
“El LERER es el valor del tipo de cambio real compatible con una situación de equilibrio interno y externo de la economía compatible, para dados valores de otras variables—fundamentales—que también pueden afectar esos equilibrios”
59. Equilibrio Externo: el déficit de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos es igual a su valor sostenible (permanente)
CABP= – CABP*
Equilibrio Interno: pleno empleo, estabilidad de precios
yS = yD
La economía siempre esta en “algún” equilibrio de corto plazo, pero no necesariamente en uno de largo plazo como lo acabamos de definir
El equilibrio es sostenible y estable si las variables fundamentales que afectan al RER han alcanzado sus valores estacionarios (de “steady state”; las fuerzas dinámicas que originaron un desequilibrio ya han operado totalmente)
60. Formulación General En cualquier momento, el valor de equilibrio del RER se puede representar como sigue (forma reducida):
donde,
ERER = tipo de cambio real observado
B = componente “burbuja”
X1 = variables predeterminadas (valores observados)
X2 = variables de política (observadas y futuras)
X3 = variables exogenas (observadas y futuras)
61. Determinantes típicos (de RER y PT/PN):
Gasto del gobierno
Medidas de productividad
Terminos de intercambio
Flujos de capital o tasa de interes real internacional Formulación General (cont.)
62. Sobrevaluación o Subvaluación del RER La existencia de una sub- (sobre-) valuación del RER dependerá de la definición de equilibrio que adoptemos:
Corto plazo: ERER (Burbujat=0)
Largo Plazo: LERER (Burbujat=0 y componentes transitorios e los fundamentales = 0)
63. Métodos Prácticos Sostenibilidad: en el largo plazo, la restriccion externa intertemporal tiene que satisfacerse ? la CABP tine que igualarse al flujo neto de capitales “permanente” o “sostenible” (compatible con mantener la deuda externa constante) ? encontrar LERE: RER compatible con esa condicion
64. Método de Balance Macroeconómico:
CA consistente con balance externo en el mediano plazo: la CA “normal”
S–I (países avanzados)
Otros indicadores, ej., balance fiscal, FDI, niveles de ingreso relativos (necesidades de inversión), indicadores demográficos (países en desarrollo):
CA compatible equilibrio interno de medio plazo (y = yp): CA Subyacente
Verificar la sostenibilidad de la CA “normal”
65. CABP y Tipo de Cambio (e)
67. Efecto Balassa-Samuelson y LERER (e) Aumento permanente de productividad:
68. Plan 1) Introducción y Conceptos de Competitividad
2) Medición de Competitividad
3) Teorías Sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real
4) Tipo de Cambio Real: Elección de Índices y Conceptos de Competitividad
5) Evaluando la Competitividad
6) Casos: Irlanda y España
69. Now we return to some examples and try to interpret what is going on.
Possibly picking up Balassa-Samuelson effects
Balassa-Samuelson effects could produce increases in REER-CPI with relatively little effect on REER-ULC: why? The weight of non-traded goods in the REER-CPI v. REER-ULC could be quite different (especially if the REER-ULC measure is based on manufacturing where traded goods are heavily weighted.)
There are other possible explanations here: price deregulation could lead to divergence between the REER-CPI and the REER-ULC in transition economies.
[In the case of Slovenia: check importance in basket.]
Now we return to some examples and try to interpret what is going on.
Possibly picking up Balassa-Samuelson effects
Balassa-Samuelson effects could produce increases in REER-CPI with relatively little effect on REER-ULC: why? The weight of non-traded goods in the REER-CPI v. REER-ULC could be quite different (especially if the REER-ULC measure is based on manufacturing where traded goods are heavily weighted.)
There are other possible explanations here: price deregulation could lead to divergence between the REER-CPI and the REER-ULC in transition economies.
[In the case of Slovenia: check importance in basket.]
71. [Traditional output-weighted measures of competitiveness in manufacturing in Ireland have been widely criticized because the exceptionally strong performance of a handful of multinational-dominated sectors severely distorts the picture. These sectors’ large gains in productivity often resulted from intangible foreign inputs into production, such as returns on past R&D, patents, and advertising campaigns abroad.]
[Traditional output-weighted measures of competitiveness in manufacturing in Ireland have been widely criticized because the exceptionally strong performance of a handful of multinational-dominated sectors severely distorts the picture. These sectors’ large gains in productivity often resulted from intangible foreign inputs into production, such as returns on past R&D, patents, and advertising campaigns abroad.]
72. [The strong wage increases in recent years have had different implications for the ULCs of manufacturing by industries. More so than capital-intensive industries, which are more immune to the effects of rising wage costs, labor-intensive industries in Ireland have been significantly affected by the recent developments
in wages. Weighted by the employment share of manufacturing—rather than the output share—in order to capture the sensitivity of the labor-intensive sectors to wages, the ULCs of manufacturing show only a limited decline up to 2001, followed by a sharp increase. Initially, the strong gains in productivity, particularly in chemicals and pharmaceuticals, masked most of the competitiveness losses in the labor-intensive sectors. Since 2001, however, falling production and an acceleration in wage inflation have driven up ULCs.]
[The strong wage increases in recent years have had different implications for the ULCs of manufacturing by industries. More so than capital-intensive industries, which are more immune to the effects of rising wage costs, labor-intensive industries in Ireland have been significantly affected by the recent developments
in wages. Weighted by the employment share of manufacturing—rather than the output share—in order to capture the sensitivity of the labor-intensive sectors to wages, the ULCs of manufacturing show only a limited decline up to 2001, followed by a sharp increase. Initially, the strong gains in productivity, particularly in chemicals and pharmaceuticals, masked most of the competitiveness losses in the labor-intensive sectors. Since 2001, however, falling production and an acceleration in wage inflation have driven up ULCs.]
73. [The movement of the REER weighted by the employment share suggests a significant deterioration in competitiveness since 2001. Consistent with the developments in employment-weighted ULCs, the employment weighted REER remained broadly stable during the second half of the 1990s, followed by a notable appreciation since 2001.3 In contrast, the output-weighted measure shows a steady decline followed by a pause at the depreciated level. The divergence between the two measures has been widening in recent years. The sustained gains in competitiveness shown by the output-based measure were mainly supported by strong
production growth in a few industries, which offset the impact of rising ULCs in other industries.]
[The movement of the REER weighted by the employment share suggests a significant deterioration in competitiveness since 2001. Consistent with the developments in employment-weighted ULCs, the employment weighted REER remained broadly stable during the second half of the 1990s, followed by a notable appreciation since 2001.3 In contrast, the output-weighted measure shows a steady decline followed by a pause at the depreciated level. The divergence between the two measures has been widening in recent years. The sustained gains in competitiveness shown by the output-based measure were mainly supported by strong
production growth in a few industries, which offset the impact of rising ULCs in other industries.]
74. [Excluding the capital intensive industries, the deterioration in competitiveness has been more severe. While the employment weighted REER is less biased than the output weighted measures by the strong performance of the handful of capital-intensive multinational industries, the large sectoral dispersion still remains. By excluding these industries, the adjusted REER reflects better the sensitivity of overall Irish manufacturing to wage developments. As expected, without the large cushion provided by the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors (NACE 24), competitiveness losses in Ireland would have been even more pronounced since 2001.]
[Excluding the capital intensive industries, the deterioration in competitiveness has been more severe. While the employment weighted REER is less biased than the output weighted measures by the strong performance of the handful of capital-intensive multinational industries, the large sectoral dispersion still remains. By excluding these industries, the adjusted REER reflects better the sensitivity of overall Irish manufacturing to wage developments. As expected, without the large cushion provided by the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors (NACE 24), competitiveness losses in Ireland would have been even more pronounced since 2001.]
80. Evaluación de la Competitividad en España (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06211.pdf) Spain: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation
“El balance de cuenta corriente se ha deteriorado, pasando de un déficit promedio cercano a 2½ por ciento del PIB desde la entrada a la UE en 1986 a un déficit de 7 ½ por ciento del PIB en el 2005. Esto refleja principalmente un deterioro del balance comercial …. Este deterioro, a su vez, refleja la posición cíclica de la economía y los precios del petróleo, pero también problemas estructurales de competitividad. Esta visión del staff del Fondo es consistente con la evolución de un grupo de indicadores”
82. Cuenta Corriente y Balance Comercial
83. “La evolución del RER también sugiere una erosión de la competitividad de la economía. Dadas las dificultades practicas asociadas a la estimación de RER de equilibrio, el staff utilizo varias metodologías … Aunque todos las metodologías tienen limitaciones … todas sugieren una debilidad competitiva apreciable (del orden de 23 – 30 por ciento)” Sobrevaluación del RER
84. RER - CPI
85. Costos Laborales Unitarios (CLUs)
86. Indices de Margenes de Exportacion (deflactor de exportaciones / CLU)
87. Penetración de las Importaciones
88. Exportaciones: Cuotas de Mercado Mundial
89. Lecturas Adicionales Chinn, Menzie D., 2005, “A primer on real effective exchange rates: determinants, overvaluation, trade flows and competitive devaluation”, NBER Working Paper 11521
BIS Economic Paper #39, November 1993 “Measuring International Price and Cost Competitiveness”
Lipschitz, Leslie, and Donogh McDonald, 1992, “Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe,” Empirica, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 37–69.
Krugman (1994) “Competitiveness: A dangerous Obsession”, Foreign Affairs, vol 73, no. 2
Burgess, R., Fabrizio, S. and Y. Xiao (2004) The Baltics: Competitiveness on the Eve of EU Accession, International Monetary Fund.
90. Lecturas Adicionales Medicion:
Dwyer and Lowe (1993) “Alternative concepts of the real exchange rate: A reconciliation” RBA Research Discussion Paper 9309, Reserve Bank of Australia
Ellis, Luci (2001) “Measuring the real exchange rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities” RBA Research Discussion Paper 2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia
Teoria:
Froot and Rogoff (1995) “Perspectives on PPP and Long-run Real Exchange Rates” Handbook of International Economics, vol. III, edited by Grossman and Rogoff.
Medicion del Efecto Balassa-Samuelson:
OP 234
