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Developing picture. At 12 UT, TD18F at 15S, 167E and moving W at 8 kts Outflow good to N; begin steered west by STR to south Expect TD to continue westward before curving SE and intensifying. 09 March 0632 UT (Sun 1630). 09 March 1232 UT (Sun 2030). Guam. Vila. Nadi.

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Developing picture
Developing picture

  • At 12 UT, TD18F at 15S, 167E and moving W at 8 kts

  • Outflow good to N; begin steered west by STR to south

  • Expect TD to continue westward before curving SE and intensifying

09 March 0632 UT

(Sun 1630)

09 March 1232 UT

(Sun 2030)

Guam

Vila

Nadi



Nadi soundings continuing very cold tropopauses
Nadi soundingscontinuing very cold tropopauses

Sat nite

very cold trop: 88.3 hPa, -88.1°C = 185 K

Sun nite

very cold trop: 86.7 hPa, -88.9°C = 184 K


00 ut monday two different forecasts
00 UT Monday: two different forecasts

160

180

GFS

06Z

10S

TD18F @ 00UT

Surface winds

Vanuatu/Fiji convergence line in red

6-hr precip

850 hPa vorticity

NVG

12Z

• GFS forecast has a bit more precip north of Fiji; otherwise models are in

good agreement on arc of convergence through Vanuatu and east to Fiji

• Red Box in each panels shows region of safe passage

• penetrating farther southward will depend on what IR sat pix look like


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