Virginia’s “Destiny”:. The Reality is in the Numbers. Kevin F Byrnes, AICP [email protected] Aging Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging. Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas. Changing Age Structure: The Aging of the Baby-Boom Generation.
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Short-term Trends: 2000 – 20031. Migration > Natural Increase2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic Diversity
P1 = P0 + Components of Change:
Natural Increase: (Births0-1 – Deaths0-1) +
Net Migration: (In-Migrants0-1 – Out-Migrants0-1)
Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series
NH = “Non-Hispanic”
Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC 20233. Jan 13, 2000.
Possible Impact of Aging Trends on Virginia’s Long-Term Care Industry
Prepared by VDA for Secretary Woods’
Task Force on Assisted Living Facilities
Virginia’s Long Term Care Industry
(2002 nursing home use rate & average facility size constant)
Source: VDA Application of VDH Nursing Bed Forecast Methodology for COPN Review; additional facilities calculated by dividing forecasted additional future NF residents by minimum facility size (120) criteria.
(’98 – ‘02 rate trends extended to 2010,
constant NF use rate post 2010)
Source: Developed by VDA
Methodology: Based on historic 2000 DSS licensing data, 2004 DSS survey reported facility occupancy rate of 86.1% and estimated 2000 utilization rate per 1,000 of population age 65 & over applied to forecast population age 65 & over. Occupancy rates assumed to increase from 85% to 95% over forecast period. 2000 avg. beds per facility (55) held constant over forecast period.
Source: Developed by VDA from National Center for Health Statistics, Current Home Health Statistics (Feb. 2004) http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhhcsd/curhomecare.pdf.
Methodology: National rates of home health care usage applied to LTC residual population by age group.
Source: Developed by VDA. Methodology: Residual population by age group remaining after subtracting forecasted institutionalized population (by age group) in nursing and assisted living facilities and patients receiving home health care services. *Projected clients served based on assumed proportional increased funding and same market share over projection period.
Source: Developed by VDA in consultation with Virginia Board of Nursing staff.
Methodology: Based on Nursing survey performed by VA Tech in Oct 2001 for Board of Nursing and July 2000 active number of nursing licensees by license type. Unlicensed worker estimate based on national trends.
Source: Developed by VDA staff in consultation with Board of Nursing staff. NF forecast series #2 used for NFs.
Methodology: A) LTC nursing workers (by type) forecast based on 2000 nursing rate per 1000 care population. B) 2000 LTC nursing workers forecast based on BLS occupational growth rates by decade published in: U.S. HHS, Report to Congress: "The Future Supply of Long-Term Care Workers in Relation to the Aging Baby Boom Generation", May 14, 2003, (Assumed Growth Rates) Table 8, page 16
HJR 103 Study: Interim Report Findings – Care IndustryTrends in State Employee Retirement Age
Trends in State Government Retirement Age Care Industry
Aging Population = Care Industry
Increased Cost for Health Insurance Plans