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Virginia’s “Destiny”:. The Reality is in the Numbers. Kevin F Byrnes, AICP [email protected] Aging Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging. Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas. Changing Age Structure: The Aging of the Baby-Boom Generation.

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Virginia’s “Destiny”:

The Reality is in the Numbers

Kevin F Byrnes, AICP [email protected]

Aging Demographer

Virginia Department for the Aging


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Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas


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Changing Age Structure: The Aging of the Baby-Boom Generation

  • Boomers born between 1946 & 1964

  • Year 2000: Boomers = Persons aged 36-54

  • Year 2004: Boomers = Persons aged 40-58

  • Year 2006: Boomers = Persons aged 42-60

  • Year 2010: Boomers = Persons aged 46-64

  • Year 2016: Boomers = Persons aged 52-70

  • Year 2024: Boomers = Persons aged 60-78


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Demographic Trends: USA



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Short-term Trends: 2000 – 20031. Migration > Natural Increase2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic Diversity


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Demographic Change:

P1 = P0 + Components of Change:

Natural Increase: (Births0-1 – Deaths0-1) +

Net Migration: (In-Migrants0-1 – Out-Migrants0-1)

+ residual



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A New Diversity: Growth in Virginia’s Non-English Speaking Population

  • From 1990 – 2000, English-only speakers declined from 92.7% to 88.9% of VA population

  • From 1990 – 2000, the Spanish speaking population more than doubled, reaching 316,274 persons, representing the largest non-English language group

  • In 2000, among persons age 65 & over, 94.5% only speak English

  • Among persons age 65 & over in 2000, 12,869 (1.6%) don’t speak English “well” or “at all”


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A New Diversity: Virginia’s Non-English Speaking Population (cont.)

  • Among Spanish-speaking persons age 65 & over, 2,850 or 22.1% don’t speak English “well” or “at all’

  • 2,131 or 75% of the State total resides in Northern Virginia (PD 8), 198 or 7% in SE VA & 106 or 3.7% in Metro Richmond (PD 15)

  • The 2nd largest language group for persons age 65 & over with English-deficiency is “Asian & Pacific Island” languages (principally Korean, Tagalog, Chinese & Vietnamese).



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Virginia’s Projected Population Growth



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What Lies Ahead?Projected US Life Expectancy Range:

Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series

NH = “Non-Hispanic”

Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC 20233. Jan 13, 2000.


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Possible Impact of Aging Trends on Virginia’s Long-Term Care Industry

Prepared by VDA for Secretary Woods’

Task Force on Assisted Living Facilities


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  • Nursing Facilities (Part A) Care Industry

  • Assisted Living Facilities (Part B)

  • Home Health Care (Part C)

  • Adult Day & Respite Care(not included)

  • Community-Based Care (Part D)

  • LTC Work Force (Part E)

Virginia’s Long Term Care Industry


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Modeling Aging Impact: Sector Specific Care Industry

  • Population Projections, by Age Group (6)

    • - Nursing Facility Forecast (2 Scenarios)

  • = LTC Residual, by Age Group

    • - Assisted Living Facility Forecast (1 Scenario)

  • = LTC Residual, by Age Group

    • - Home Health Care Forecast (1 Scenario)

  • = LTC Residual/Community-Based Care Forecast, by Age Group

  • LTC Workforce Impact(2 scenarios)


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A. Nursing Facility Forecasts Care Industry

  • Scenario 1: VDH Bed Need Forecast Model

    (2002 nursing home use rate & average facility size constant)

Source: VDA Application of VDH Nursing Bed Forecast Methodology for COPN Review; additional facilities calculated by dividing forecasted additional future NF residents by minimum facility size (120) criteria.


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B. Assisted Living Facility Forecast Care Industry

Source: Developed by VDA

Methodology: Based on historic 2000 DSS licensing data, 2004 DSS survey reported facility occupancy rate of 86.1% and estimated 2000 utilization rate per 1,000 of population age 65 & over applied to forecast population age 65 & over. Occupancy rates assumed to increase from 85% to 95% over forecast period. 2000 avg. beds per facility (55) held constant over forecast period.


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Comparative State Demographic Data Care Industry

  • In 2003, 22.4% of Florida’s population was age 60 & over (ranked 1st), compared to Virginia’s 15.6%

  • Between 2000 & 2003, Virginia gained 79,020 persons age 60 & over, a 7.3% increase since 2000

  • Based on national projections, Virginia’s population age 60+(24.3%)in 2025 will be roughly comparable to Florida’s current age structure (persons age 60+ =22.4%of total in 2003).


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C. Home Health Care Forecast Care Industry

Source: Developed by VDA from National Center for Health Statistics, Current Home Health Statistics (Feb. 2004) http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhhcsd/curhomecare.pdf.

Methodology: National rates of home health care usage applied to LTC residual population by age group.


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D. Community-Based Care Care Industry(e.g. AAA)

Source: Developed by VDA. Methodology: Residual population by age group remaining after subtracting forecasted institutionalized population (by age group) in nursing and assisted living facilities and patients receiving home health care services. *Projected clients served based on assumed proportional increased funding and same market share over projection period.


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E. LTC Workforce Forecast, by Sector Care Industry

Source: Developed by VDA in consultation with Virginia Board of Nursing staff.

Methodology: Based on Nursing survey performed by VA Tech in Oct 2001 for Board of Nursing and July 2000 active number of nursing licensees by license type. Unlicensed worker estimate based on national trends.


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E. LTC Workforce Forecast (continued) Care Industry

  • Scenario A: Maintain 2000 Work Force Patterns = 110 % Increase by 2030

  • Scenario B: BLS Occupational Demand Forecasts = 146% increase by 2030

Source: Developed by VDA staff in consultation with Board of Nursing staff. NF forecast series #2 used for NFs.

Methodology: A) LTC nursing workers (by type) forecast based on 2000 nursing rate per 1000 care population. B) 2000 LTC nursing workers forecast based on BLS occupational growth rates by decade published in: U.S. HHS, Report to Congress: "The Future Supply of Long-Term Care Workers in Relation to the Aging Baby Boom Generation", May 14, 2003, (Assumed Growth Rates) Table 8, page 16


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HJR 103 Study: Interim Report Findings – Care IndustryTrends in State Employee Retirement Age



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Aging Population = Care Industry

Increased Cost for Health Insurance Plans


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Future Aging-Related Societal Issues Care Industry

  • Stability of Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid Programs

  • Expansion of LTC Skilled & Unskilled Work Force

  • Public Acceptance of Additional LTC Facilities

  • Expansion of Public Funding Support to Meet Demand for Community-Based Service Delivery

  • Continued Economic Growth with Shrinking Labor Supply

  • Alternative Work Programs for Job & Benefit-Sharing

  • Transportation System Access for Senior Citizens

  • Emergency Contingency Planning & Response for Significant Home-bound Senior Population


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Helpful Data Sources on Aging Demographics: Care Industry

  • 2000 Census Special Tabulation on Aging:

    http://www.aoa.gov/prof/statistics/tab/aoacensus2000.html

  • VDA Web Site: Statistics:

    http://www.vda.virginia.gov/downloadable.htm

  • CDC, National Center for Health Statistics:

    http://www.cdc.gov/node.do/id/0900f3ec8000ec28

  • The Lewin Group: Disability Forecast Model:

    http://lewingroup.liquidweb.com/cgi-bin/woodwork.pl

  • Boston College Ctr. for Retirement Research:

    http://www.bc.edu/centers/crr/


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Contact Information: Care Industry

Kevin F Byrnes, AICP

Demographer

Virginia Dept. for the Aging

1610 Forest Ave, Suite 100

Richmond, VA 23229

(804) 662-7047

[email protected]

http://www.vda.virginia.gov/downloadable.htm


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