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ICTU Seminar Dublin July 7th Michael O’Sullivan Author of ‘Ireland and the Global Question’, Co-editor of ‘What did we do right?’ . Sovereign debt crisis through history .

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ICTU Seminar Dublin July 7th Michael O’Sullivan Author of ‘Ireland and the Global Question’, Co-editor of ‘What did we do right?’


Sovereign debt crisis through history
Sovereign debt crisis through history

Source: Reinhart & Rogoff, “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises”


Debt to gdp ratio

This is what the banking crisis will do

Debt to GDP ratio

Source: Velde (2003), Murphy (1999).


But what about the war
… but what about the war?

Source: Angus Maddison



‘Small states must rely heavily on the quality of their strategic thinking to counter their vulnerability to international influences’ JJ Lee

The Global Question


Great bubbles and changed societies
Great Bubbles and changed societies strategic thinking to counter their vulnerability to international influences’ JJ Lee

  • the new rich serving soup in a church offertory basin, sugar being dispensed from an incense burner and salt from chalices'

  • ‘the worst about the Irish is that they become corruptible as soon as they stop being peasants and turn bourgeois’ – Friedrich Engels


'Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one‘ Charles MacKay

Coming to our senses


A guarantee of religious and civil liberty, equal rights! that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one‘ Charles MacKay Happiness and prosperity?Cherishing all the children equally!!

There is no plan, strategy or national vision



State since the 1920’s There is a small nation that stood alone …that was clubbed many times into insensibility….a small nation that could never be got to accept defeat and had never surrendered her soul’

Irish resolve against the bond vigilantes!


‘Patriotism is a love of country, pride in its history, traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

Shh…don’t be subversive


What did we do right
‘What did we do right?’ traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

What do ‘foreigners’ really think of us?


What did we do right1
What did we do right? traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

  • Intangible Infrastructure

    • 'Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things' – Adam Smith


What s next honestly
What’s next?...honestly traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

depression and discovery

Where will growth come from?

Where will the money come from?

Move from financial and economic phases of the credit crisis to the social and political


Rebuilding
Rebuilding traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

We need more strategy and less tactics in order to buffer globalization, more technocracy

Re-engineer most of our institutions (though who will do this?)

Le Grand Méchant Marché

Boston, Berlin or Beijing


The world economy 1700 to 2030
The World Economy – 1700 to 2030 traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass

Share of Global GDP (%)

Years: 1700, 1820, 1890, 1952, 2007, 2030F

Note: 2007 figures at current exchange rates

Source: Angus Maddison, IMF, Credit Suisse


The second republic
The Second Republic traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass*

*Irish Times, 14th April 2009, and in ‘Ireland’s Economic Crisis – time to act’ – Glenties Summer School, July 2009.


What is it
What is it? traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass


When? traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass


By whom
By whom? traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass


The second republic1
The Second Republic traditions and culture and a determination to add to its prestige and achievements’ Sean Lemass*

*Irish Times, 14th April 2009, and in ‘Ireland’s Economic Crisis – time to act’ – Glenties Summer School, July 2009.


‘In a little time the Revolution became a test of every man’s political creed and the nation was fairly divided into two great parties, the Aristocrats and Democrats…needless to say I was a Democrat from the beginning’


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