Identifying Grand Challenges in Climate Change Research: Guiding DOE’s Strategic Planning:. Report on the DOE/BERAC workshop 25-27 March Crystal City For BERAC meeting 20 May. Meeting summary.
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Report on the DOE/BERAC workshop
For BERAC meeting
Initial content agreed to by a drafting group meeting the afternoon following the workshop
Written by the co-chairs and iterated many times with a subset of the workshop participants.
The reports overall message appears to have converged.
However, it still needs to be looked at by the BERAC and the other workshop participants who have not yet seen it (comments through the latter better done from a closed interactive website).
Climate change from use of fossil fuel energy recognized by DOE as a major constraint on the Nations future development and use of energy.
IPCC 2007 reported that this climate change already highly visible and expected to continue unabated for at least the next several decades.
Since that report, a number of further studies showing some changes happening even faster than anticipated.
A chorus of voices asking for more detailed local information on what has and will change for their planning horizons
NOAA planning on providing a “Climate Services” to meet this need with there yet being little of the research being done that such a “Services” would have to be built upon.
Improve the characterization of Earth’s climate, and its evolution through the last century to its present state.
Predict regional climate change for the next several decades.
Simulate Earth System change over centuries.
A high-dimensional dynamical system – individual observations are snapshots of components are particular times and place - do not recognize the interconnectedness.
NWP provides a prototype what is needed. Through statistical modeling, combine multiple streams of observations with model predictions to optimally describe system.
Reanalyses go back in time using a single consistent model.
Provide global system research data sets and initial conditions for future projections.
Improves with improvement of the model process descriptions.
On century time scales many feedbacks affect climate system that are not yet modeled or adequately so (e.g., involving biogeochemical cycling, dynamic vegetation, and atmospheric chemistry) .
Carbon cycle feedbacks have large control on how much atmospheric CO2 over this time.