Demographic changes driving new residential development
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Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development. www.RCLCo.com. Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development. Changing Household Types Growth in non-traditional-family households Changing face of renters and owners Impact of Immigration When, where and how immigrants live

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Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development

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Demographic changes driving new residential development

Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development

www.RCLCo.com


Demographic changes driving new residential development1

Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development

  • Changing Household Types

    • Growth in non-traditional-family households

    • Changing face of renters and owners

  • Impact of Immigration

    • When, where and how immigrants live

  • Impact of Race/Ethnicity

  • Implications for Different Housing Types

  • Relationship to Employment Patterns


Changing household types

Changing Household Types


Changing household types1

Changing Household Types

  • The growth is in non-traditional-family households

    • Singles

    • Unmarried couples or childless couples

    • Roommates

    • Single parents

  • Non-traditional-family households

    • Willing to pioneer new areas

    • Less concerned about school districts

    • Looking to balance price and lifestyle

  • Married renters and single buyers

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution


Changing household types2

Changing Household Types

  • DC a national leader in non-married-couple households

    • DC - 77%, vs. 64% for 100 Largest US Cities

    • DC MSA - 50%, vs. 48% National Average

    • DC – 8% of households married with kid(s) – vs. 23.5% in US

    • In 1990s, married households flocked to suburbs

  • Lifestyle drives housing location decisions

    • Look for where they can live, work & play – all in one place

    • Active communities – “3rd Places” for informal gathering


Changing household types3

Changing Household Types

  • What does that mean?

    • Product configuration changes

      • Less need for 3rd or 4th bedrooms

      • Creative living spaces

      • More architecture, less “sameness”

    • Location change

      • Unconcerned with conventions and traditions

      • Heretofore unacceptable locations

      • Single females prefer established locations

      • Couples & single men will take more risk for the $


Household types owners

Household Types | Owners

  • Over 110,000 new owner HH will be added (~22,000/year)

  • Largest % growth in Singles and Childless Couples

  • Married w/ children growing slower than other groups

  • Source: US Census, Claritas

  • The Brookings Institution

Growth%

1.4%

2.1%

1.6%

1.5%

1.1%

2.5%


Household types renters

Household Types | Renters

~21,000 new renters –(~4,200/yr)

Singles drive the rental market

However…

Married Couples without children ~13% of renter growth

Female HH Heads ~11% of renter growth

Source: US Census, Claritas

Growth%

0.4%

1.5%

0.7%

1.0%

-0.1%

1.2%


Owners

Owners

  • What does that mean – for-sale?

    • GenXers flooding the market – singles, couples without children

    • Designs for non-kid or young-kid households

    • Married w/children growing slower than other groups


Renters

Renters

  • What does that mean - rentals?

    • Need to design for both singles and couples

    • “Renters by choice” aren’t a myth (20% 50K+ incomes) – they seek quality, mobility, and convenience – but affordability key for many

    • GenX not having children yet – some rent for a while

    • Echo Boomers – tomorrow’s renter (after 2008)

      • Many doubling up & living with parents


Summary demographic changes driving new residential development

Summary: Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development

  • Maturing Boomers:

    • Luxury homes/condos and some rentals

    • More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services

  • GenX not having children yet, but soon

    • Moving into ownership

  • Echo Boom generation:

    • Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008

    • Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, living with parents


Impact of immigration

Impact of Immigration


Impact of immigration1

Impact of Immigration

Top Ten Immigrant Populations by Metropolitan Area, 2000

  • DC region is 7th in foreign born residents, 5th in total population

  • 8th in % foreign born

  • Foreign born population grew almost 7 fold in last 30 years

Source: Brookings Institution


Impact of immigration2

Impact of Immigration

New immigrants made up nearly half of the overall population growth in the region in the 1990s

Source: Brookings


Impact of immigration3

Impact of Immigration

  • Immigrants choosing to settle in the inner suburbs rather than the District

    • 4% of 1990s foreign-born growth in DC

  • Absolute population growth in the 1990s equal in the inner and outer portions of region

    • 85% of inner-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born

    • 12% of outer-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born


Impact of immigration4

Impact of Immigration

Impact of Immigration

2000

Total Foreign Born 832,016

1970

Total Foreign Born 127,579

Source: The Brookings Institution


Impact of immigration5

Impact of Immigration

Percent Foreign Born (By Census Tract)

2000

Less than 5%

5% - 15%

16% - 25%

26% - 35%

Greater than 35%

Foreign born residents tend to concentrate near but not in the District

Source: Brookings


Impact of immigration6

Impact of Immigration

Foreign-Born Median Household Income

Less than 50% of Median Income

50% - 100% of Median Income

101% - 150% of Median Income

Greater than 150% of Median Income

  • Immigrants tend to live close to DC

  • Poorer immigrants flock to DC and Prince George's County

  • Affluent immigrants move to Montgomery and Fairfax Counties

Source: Brookings


Race ethnicity

Race & Ethnicity


Race ethnicity1

Race & Ethnicity

  • Minorities growing in the suburbs

  • Mirrors national trend

  • DC losing African- American residents

  • Suburban builders should understand needs, desires of minorities

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution


Race ethnicity2

Race & Ethnicity

  • Hispanics live in north-central DC

  • Concentration in NE Prince George’s, SE Montgomery, Arlington & Fairfax counties

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution


Race ethnicity3

Race & Ethnicity

  • Minorities are 32% of 1st time homebuyers (national)

  • Minorities have lower incomes & wealth

  • Lenders are correcting for prior patterns of discrimination

  • Minorities are less mobile

    • 65% of minority homeowners nationwide 65 yrs of age are still in 1st home

    • Compared with 32% for non-Hispanic white homeowners

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution, Joint Center for Housing Studies


Relationship to employment patterns

Relationship to Employment Patterns


Demographic changes driving new residential development2

Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development

www.RCLCo.com


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