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Radiation and Children’s Heath: Separating Fact From Fiction. Mitsuyoshi Urashima MD, PhD, MPH Associate Professor, Jikei University School of Medicine http://dr-urashima.jp. 核戦争防止国際医師会議 : 1985 年ノーベル平和賞. 圧力制御室. Fukushima 3/11 ~ 4/5 131I: ~150PBq 137Cs: ~ 12PBq.

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Radiation and Children’s Heath:

Separating Fact From Fiction

Mitsuyoshi Urashima MD, PhD, MPH

Associate Professor, Jikei University School of Medicine

http://dr-urashima.jp


核戦争防止国際医師会議:1985年ノーベル平和賞



Fukushima 3/11 ~ 4/5

131I: ~150PBq

137Cs: ~ 12PBq

Chernobyl

131I: ~1760PBq

137Cs: ~ 86PBq

Global Release of

Atmospheric Nuclear

Weapon Testing

131I: ~675,000PBq

137Cs: ~ 948PBq


330microSv/hr

270microSv/hr

255microSv/hr


Mark Twain

"There are three kinds of lies:lies,

damnedlies,

and statistics. “



Effective dose (実行線量): 全身影響を表わす量

                   組織毎の係数をかける

Equivalent dose (等価線量): 放射線の種類によって異なる

X線やベータ線、ガンマ線は1、

中性子線は5~20、

アルファ線は20

Effective dose (実行線量):Sv, mSv, mSv

吸収線量: dose (D): Gy(= Sv)

1Ci=3.7×10 Bq=37GBq

10

イメージとしては、

1kgの放射線を放っている物質が

放射線を出し終わるまでの、放射線の総量


Internal irradiation

137

131

Cs

I


131

I : 100Bq/kg (=litter) = 100 x 0.022 = 2.2 microSv

x 100 days = 220 microSv

*X 0.016 の係数を使う場合もある

Half life = 8 days

137

Cs : 100Bq/kg (=litter) = 100 x 0.013 = 1.3 microSv

x 100 days = 130 microSv

Image

Half life = 30 years




受動喫煙   x 2 =100% 上昇

通常喫煙   x 10=900% 上昇

ヘビー     x 20= 1900%上昇

喫煙リスク



Agenda
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Ecological study

Exposure

Outcome

Case Control Study

Confounders

Cohort Study

Bias


Agenda1
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


  • 男性の過剰相対リスク= 2.21 (95%信頼区間 0.40 – 13.80)/Gy

  • 女性の過剰相対リスク= 16.57 (95%信頼区間 1.08 – 1651)/Gy

  • 女性の方が被爆した際、甲状腺がんになるリスクは高い(しかし統計学的有意差は無かった)。

  • 0~4歳児の過剰相対リスク= 9.08 (95%信頼区間 1.33 – 84.8)/Gy

  • 5~9歳児の過剰相対リスク= 7.00 (95%信頼区間 1.76 – 33.04)/Gy

  • 10~18歳児の過剰相対リスク= 3.39 (95%信頼区間 0.68 – 19.68)/Gy

  • 年齢が小さい小児が被爆した際、甲状腺がんになるリスクは高い(しかし統計学的有意差は無かった)。


Agenda2
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Agenda3
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Agenda4
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Agenda5
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Analysis of Situation

A series of Earthquakes

Nuclear Power

Point Accident

Tsunami

Huge number

Of causalities > 20,000

Explosion

Continuous

Leakage

Evacuation

131I

137Cs

Loss of Families

Loss of Work

Loss of Properties

Earth

Water

External

Exp.

Destruction of

The communities

Food

Water

Internal

Exp.

Settlement

Human

Economy


Risk Communication by Government

This level of irradiation has no hazardous effects on health for now.

People think: That’s means some problems later, cancer, congenital anomalies, infertility?

This level of irradiation in water and food has no hazardous effects on health if you do not take long term. However, if you can avoid taking, please do so. But if you can’t, it’s OK. Doesn’t matter.

People think: This must be quite danger.


Earthquake

Contamination

In food supply

And water

Broadcast


Audience rate = 14%

2011/3/24 (Thur) 8 – 9 PM


Risk communication

Demonstrate Chernobyl as scientific evidence

Increase of thyroid cancer in children

No significant increase of cancer in adults

No significant increase in congenital anomalies

What we need to do is protecting children.

1. People outside the area of disaster do not have to worry about yourself.

2. We should have sympathy to the causalities with serious anxiety as if they are our family or friends.

3. If the society be confused and depressed, the situation will be much more worsened. So, we should seek more positive side of things.

Try to keep unequivocal attitude to wipe out anxiety and suspicion of the people in their hard time


Change in Value of People

Family, Friends, Community

Money, Business

Shock

Panic

We have only the

way for recovery.

Positive

thinking


  • Power of Media

  • Many e-mails and phone calls

  • I felt the atmosphere of Japanese society

  • had been changed totally after that.

2. Dynamic changes of behavior

in such a short period.

Go home earlier.

People seek behavior: Do the right things, Justice.

3. Things have both negative and positive side.

Crisis made us notice what is the most important in life

and gave us a chance to change dramatically.


Agenda6
Agenda

  • Basics

    a. Mechanisms of harm by irradiation

    b. Bias in epidemiological studies

    II. Lesson learned from Chernobyl

    a. Thyroid cancer

    b. Leukemia

    c. other cancer

    d. congenital defects

    III. Social psychology


Distrust of politics

Economic and political turmoil

Invisible stress coming from radiation

Low life satisfaction

Uncertainty of future disease

A variety of chronic stressors

Chronic distress

Depression

Anxiety

Somatization

  • @ high risk

  • Women and mothers

  • Older adults

  • Evacuees and those with a high degree of exposure to the disaster


Depression

Mastery/

Controllability

Chronic stressors

Female

Older age

Family problem

Occupation

Family history of leukemia

Relocation history

Negative life events

Contamination level

Region


Anxiety

Chronic stressors

Mastery/

Controllability

Female

Family problem

Older age

Occupation

Family history of leukemia

Relocation history

Negative life events

Contamination level

Region


Somatization

Chronic stressors

Mastery/

Controllability

Older age

Female

Family problem

Occupation

Family history of leukemia

Relocation history

Negative life events

Contamination level

Region


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