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Building on tradition? The ECA experience

Building on tradition? The ECA experience. Gero Carletto DECRG, The World Bank Jan 24, 2008. “If you want to make enemies, try to change something” Woodrow Wilson . “LSMS goes East”. Different ways to introduce something new: The Alexander the Great model The Talleyrand model

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Building on tradition? The ECA experience

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  1. Building on tradition? The ECA experience Gero Carletto DECRG, The World Bank Jan 24, 2008

  2. “If you want to make enemies, try to change something” Woodrow Wilson

  3. “LSMS goes East” • Different ways to introduce something new: • The Alexander the Great model • The Talleyrand model … “The Ultimate Warrior Is A Diplomat”

  4. The context • Acquis communautaire • The “old” continent, the new (bad?) attitude • “Engraved” tradition with HBS

  5. The Household Budget Survey • Measurement of living conditions • CPI • Large sample size; • Continuous; sample rotation • Urban only ? • High non-response rate

  6. Non-response rates • High and increasing over time; large “instability” • Bulgaria from 33 to 37% from 1993 to 2000 (with peak of 49% in 1997) • Poland from 23 to 49% bet/w 1992 and 2000 • Russia from 10 to 16 % in same period with peak of 48% in 1997

  7. Goals often similar … • Provide needed data … yesterday! • Improve efficiency • Simplify, standardize • Sustainability • Continuity • Generate demand • Ownership

  8. However … • Data needs but … what type of data? • Poverty, multi-sector, CPI, NA, … • Conflicting agendas • Sample size, domains of inference • Short-term vs. long-term goals • Timeline • Data quality, Non-response rates • Human resources • Financial resources

  9. Options • “Bulldoze and build” : Albania • “The Annex”: Bulgaria • “The Addition”: Kazakhstan • Move out: several other countries

  10. Albania: the problem • No (comparable) poverty figures • No sector information • Last survey: HBS 2000, urban only • Urgency • Little capacity • The Eurostat factor • But … donor interest, PRSP, eager local counterparts, “donor crack” in statistics, …

  11. Albania: the solution • LSMS program • multi-year funding • gradual; small sample • Integrated system; scrap HBS for the time being • Focus on capacity building (set smaller goals) • Build demand: data user group • Diary, COICOP, …

  12. Bulgaria: the problem • 365-day diary; balance sheet • High non-response (pensioners) • Lack of transparency, little training • Very little “excitement” for change • NSO vs. RoB • Data NOW! • Little resources • The Eurostat2 factor

  13. Bulgaria: the solution • Don’t change … even if it is broken! • Outsourced “quick and clean” survey, with NSO involvement (2001) • TFSCB with NSO and MOLSP • BMTHS (2003) and revision of HBS • BUT … • Short time horizon (BMTHS but no revision) • The Eurostat3 factor / accession • Lack of commitment. Sustainability?

  14. Kazakhstan: the problem • Long tradition with HBS • Late in the process • Unwillingness to change • Secretive • No resources • No training • ADB, mixed signals • Not enough commitment on both sides

  15. Kazakhstan: the solution? • Damage control! Piggybacking. • Analysis with old and quarterly data, data entry (gaining trust; demo) • Add modules according to rotation • Some training • Quality control (data entry) • BUT … • no long-term vision/intention, little commitment, no resources, …

  16. In conclusion … • Same problem, different solutions! • Albania: not yet accession, positioning/patience, multi-year program/funding, trust • Bulgaria: accession imminent, “double dipping”, mistrust, little resources, multi-institution involvement • KAZ: too late in process, no funding, language

  17. If you want to truly understand something, try to change it.  Kurt Lewin If you want to change something, try to truly understand it

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